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Anyone any views on the ground?
There was a headwind yesterday, but it was not especially strong (probably much stronger today) and I find it difficult to believe that it would have slowed the horses down enough to justify going along with the official "good" in view of the times.
"Good to soft" for me.
A "definite GRoup 3 filly"?!? She has just absolutely hacked up in a Group 3 and looked in a totally different league to her rivals.
3-1 sounds short, but a quick look at the oppostion will tell you why we have gone that price. Natagora is undoubtedy classy but has a trip doubt – but Muthabara, Spacious and Cape Amber all have loads to prove on what they have actualy shown us on on the racecourse.
Bottom line – It isn’t a good 1000 guineas and for me, Infallible looks way more talented than a lot of previous winners of the race. Was anyone ever that impressed by Wince, Lahan, Ameerat, Speciosa etc etc etc?
Just watched the replay and have to agree that the way she has won was very impressive, couldnt be too sure about a pivotal filly on faster conditions but she looks a real filly and will no doubt win races this season, she has a bundles of class about her.
For those who haven’t seen it various pundits assess the trials in today’s Racing Post. Before reading these it would nice to know if the writers have a financial interest. For instance would Segal be dismissing Infallible if he had tipped her up at 40/1 rather than a horse at less than half those odds?
Those who took the double figure odds Natagora are presumably hoping she will stay and that she will not need to improve on last year’s form. Without looking at the stats I suspect the days when you assumed the Cheveley Park winner will go on to win the Guineas ended a long time ago. Potential classic winners are far less likely to contest the major races at two than they were 30 years ago. How many top class juvenile fillies back it up or even improve at three? I suspect very few. I am not sure of the form of her reappearance but to my eyes Natagora did not have much in hand beyond the winning margin. A reproduction of the Cheveley Park form may now not be sufficient.
I have no doubts Natagora will stay and beat them all, she just looks like a very high class filly to me and class can sometimes make up for stamina limitations.
With some of the more higher fancied fillies bowing out it seems inevitable that Natagora can win this Classic on her class alone as I have pointed out previously.
Turn your head away from the egg being aimed at your face if Muthabara hacks up by 6 lengths on Saturday.
Just preparing you for the worst.
MDeering,
Muthabara may well win tomorrow, and win well. However, you are nothing but a lemming to be betting on her at recent prices. Until you can convince me otherwise, I am more than hesitant to have Muthabara near the head of the betting for the 100 Guineas based on gallop reports.
I am pretty sceptical about Muthabara too. The form of her wins last season doesn’t fully add up and it would take something breathtaking today(which you shouldn’t get in a trial) to convince me she’s more than a talking horse.
James Fanshawe’s Spacious could prove the fly in the ointment, but the race looks wide open to me.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
We’ll soon know what the situation is with muthabara, she only really needs to run well today IMO, having been off for so long and coming back from injury, she doesnt look the sort who would win the fred darling by a wide margin, which isnt usually won by wide margins anyway, its funny you should mention spacious H as the money has at last started to come back in for her, going 5s and 6s from 7s possible she has made some progress.
A few us backed her weeks ago Bul and the best I could get was 8/1.
Natagora who I backed at the same time was 10/1.
Natagora was cut because she won which is undersyandable but the price on Spacious would appear to be only a reflection of the withdrawels not of any gamble.
Don’t get me wrong I like this filly alot and think she could be the only danger to Natagora but I can see no sign of a gamble whatsoever.
Why Muthabara is such a short price I have no idea…….her form to date is very moderate compared to the other top 3. He race today looks her toughest task to date so perhasps she will show me why
……I’m bamboozled.she won a listed race beating Lady Deauville a 33/1 shot by 3/4 of a length the 3rd will be running in sellers soon . She drifted in the market like there was no great confidence in her and the second got stuffed both before and after that race. She then got beat when odds on in a 6 grand race at Folkstone before eventually winning a half decent race on soft ground at Newbury. If that’s guineas form I’m from KryptonShe must be either burning up the gallops and being bet for fortunes or the bookies are taking the piss again.
The 10/1 about Natagora had gone well before the last helpings of Muthabara’s 8/1 were snaffled, so just how dense is your bookie FOF?
After today’s performance I can’t see anything troubling Infallible or Natagora, and at 13/8 the pair you’re absolutely laughing.
He’s talking about 8-1 on Spacious LGR, can remember fists backing those two ages ago, I thought he meant muthabara when I first read it too.
After today’s performance I can’t see anything troubling Infallible or Natagora, and at 13/8 the pair you’re absolutely laughing.
Now who’s blinkered
I do not think 4/1 is a good price about infallible.
Muthabara has more potential for the 1000 Guineas imo.
Zip
I really like this filly. She may not have beaten much in her two starts, but she couldn’t have been more impressive in the Nell Gwyn. She came from last to first in a moderately run race and quickened away in the manner of a very good filly inside the final furlong. She should prove even better in a stronger run race, which she is sure to get in the 1000.
Her trainer has a decent history with his fillies, particularly over this distance and Infallible clearly enjoys the undulations of Newmarket, given that both her wins have come at the track. She was still incredibly green both before and during the race and is sure to improve even further.
Christophe Lemaire expressed doubts about Natagora’s ability to stay the mile after her Cheveley Park win and, given the level of speed she has displayed thus far, staying a strongly run mile at Newmarket is highly unlikely.
Muthabara, three-from-three, is a classy, genuine filly, but her performance today indicates she may lack the necessary speed to win a Guineas.
Infallible for me at this stage, but Nahoodh is excellent value. Her Lowther win represents solid form, but she was always going to be a better three-year-old. Her usually bullish trainer was adamant that she would very much need her seasonal debut and she’s sure to improve a great deal from the run, which will put her spot-on for the Guineas.
……I’m bamboozled.she won a listed race beating Lady Deauville a 33/1 shot by 3/4 of a length the 3rd will be running in sellers soon 
. She drifted in the market like there was no great confidence in her and the second got stuffed both before and after that race. She then got beat when odds on in a 6 grand race at Folkstone before eventually winning a half decent race on soft ground at Newbury. If that’s guineas form I’m from Krypton
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