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I'm mystified…….

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  • #678
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    as to why Trouble at Bay and Buena Vista are both rated 140+

    Don’t get me wrong, both are potentially useful in this sphere, and put in nice performances on their Chasing debuts, but beating ODC, Ursis etc and Tora Bora, Borrora etc, surely don’t warrant these marks

    #35668
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    I thought you had made a mistake ew. Agree the RPR’s for both look excessive. What makes it even stranger is that according to RPR’s, both are already better over fences than hurdles.

    #35669
    empty walletempty wallet
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    Quote: from davidjohnson on 8:02 pm on Jan. 10, 2007[br]I thought you had made a mistake ew. Agree the RPR’s for both look excessive. What makes it even stranger is that according to RPR’s, both are already better over fences than hurdles.

    <br>I’m stumped DJ tbh, ratings are saying these two have put in G2 Novice Chase performances like Turko, Fair Along, Boychuck etc, which they clearly have not

    (Edited by empty wallet at 8:13 pm on Jan. 10, 2007)

    #35670
    empty walletempty wallet
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    I must be missing summat

    free Timeform card

    01/12/06  EXETER  (Chase) <br>19 furlongs, 110 yards. Soft 1 of 6 13/8  tfig     rat  140+ A. P. McCoy

    <br>23/12/06  HEREFORD  (Chase) <br>16 furlongs. Gd/Sft 1 of 7 3/1  tfig     rat  145   J. A. McCarthy

    :o :o

    #35671
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    empty

    Are the timeform ratings you have weight adjusted for the horses entries? The reason I ask is because Buena Vista is rated 133p and Trouble At Bay is 132p,

    #35672
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Dunno tbh DJ, i just lifted those off website and presumed those were the ratings awarded for each race

    Like i say, i’m missing summat<br>Timeform racecard:

    <br>RACE 3 HEREFORD  11/01/07 TRW – – – – –

    ——————————————————————————–<br> <br>2.00 THE HEREFORD TRUCK SHOW NOVICES’ CHASE (3)  2m <br> <br>  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£9,800  5yo+     <br>

    ——————————————————————————–<br> <br>1 BUENA VISTA (IRE)   6 b.g   11-12   D. E. PIPE    A. P. McCoy        142 p  <br>  <br>2 TROUBLE AT BAY (IRE)   7 b.g   11-08   A. KING    Robert Thornton        145 p  <br>    <br>3 CHIEF YEOMAN   7 b.g   11-02   MISS VENETIA WILLIAMS    Sam Thomas          

    4 GENGHIS (IRE)   8 br.g   11-02   P. BOWEN    T. J. O’Brien        121  <br>  <br>5 KILLING ME SOFTLY   6 b.g   11-02   J. GALLAGHER    Tom Scudamore    (b)    ?

    ————————————————————————–

    BV 140 rating (i presume) has been adjusted to 12 stone =  142,  so TaB 145 should be 151 and Genghis 121should be 133

    Your more realistic ratings,  BV should be 135, TaB 138, if adjusting to 12 stone

    empty = mystified by  by high race ratings and TF race card ratings

    —————————————————–

    RPR adjusted to 12 stone are correct – BV 142 (ajd 144) Tab 146 (ajd 152,) Genghis 112 (ajd 124) Killing me softly 38 (ajd 50)

    empty = mystified by the high race ratings of Buena Vista and Trouble at Bay

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 3:06 am on Jan. 11, 2007)

    #35673
    davidjohnson
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    Tf jump ratings are adjusted to 12st7lb. Their flat ratings adjusted to 10st.

    #35674
    empty walletempty wallet
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    Quote: from davidjohnson on 8:57 am on Jan. 11, 2007[br]Tf jump ratings are adjusted to 12st7lb. Their flat ratings adjusted to 10st.

    <br>:cool:  no longer mystified by TF ratings, any explanation why that is so anywhere DJ?

    (Edited by empty wallet at 10:17 am on Jan. 11, 2007)

    #35675
    davidjohnson
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    Off the top of my head I don’t know EW, other than at the time Timeform began producing Black Book jumps ratings in the 60’s, the majority of the big handicaps I think had a top-weight of 12-7, (see Arkle etc).

    #35676
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,<br>I haven’t got race stats. on hand at present, so please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t Trouble at Bay attain his lofty perch for the beating of OPERA DE COUER  ?? [Timeform Rating at start of season: 126p]

    Although ODC was selected by Timeform 50 to Follow, another dismal display yesterday demonstrates Trouble’s inaccurate rating.

    regards,

    doyley

    #35677
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    doyley

    What do you have Trouble At Bay rated?

    #35678
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    I think you’ve got to treat that race and the rating with caution due to the subsequent running of ODC tbh

    Not sure how TF work, but  if more evidence was forthcoming, like Genghis running poorly again then maybe the rating may be reviewed

    <br>

    #35679
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    Ofcourse the publsihed rating for Trouble At Bay was produced before Opera de la Cour ran yesterday.  However, I didn’t think you were a fan of yardstick handicapped ew, that being the case, why would Opera de la cours run yesterday worry you too much.

    #35680
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    DJ

     subsequent runs tell you how strong or weak a race is ( which i’m sure you know) and one horse running poorly from a race means nothing tbh, but i’m applying caution to it, as i would to any race where a  horse does not seem to have gone on, thats all

    As more evidence comes to light of horses running well or poorly from a race, i think you need to go back and review your ratings, and if need be, raising em slightly or lowering em

    (Edited by empty wallet at 1:08 pm on Jan. 11, 2007)

    #35681
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    As i stated earlier with the ratings you posted

    "a more realistic rating"

    Subsequent form may say that was right, a bit low or to high – hindsight is a wonderful thing,  TF don’t have that luxury, but i have in most cases

    (Edited by empty wallet at 1:16 pm on Jan. 11, 2007)

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