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“The Derby should be 1m2f, the St Leger 1m4f, and the King George and Arc both reduced to 1m2f unless they want to play second fiddle to the International Stakes, Irish Champion and Champion in perpetuity”.
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Reducing race distances like that will never happen.
As can be seen by people clammering for Baaeed to run in the Arc on this thread, the Arc is still the most prestigious 3yo+ race… And The Derby is the most prestigious race restricted to three year olds.
There are currently more than enough 3yo+ 1m2f Group 1 races to go around. Making the King George and Arc 1m2f would just make them lesser quality races. Because trainers would have far more options for 1m2f horses and therefore fewer runners and / or fewer good horses running in each race…
Or if it did happen then other races would need to be upped in trip to replace them. ie If the King George and Arc were reduced in distance then other 1m2f Group 1’s would need to be upped to 1m4f in order to survive – which makes no sense for Racing Authorities to allow.
There is some justification for a new 1m2f Group 1 race restricted to three year olds, but that could easily be done by upgrading the Dante. Could enhance a new “triple Crown” or even a “Quadruple Crown”. But there must always be a 1m4f Derby, King George and Arc (or Group 1 replacements for those distances) and a 1m6f Group 1 St Leger or (replacement)… Because currently very few breeders aim to breed a flat stayer. Stayers are mainly horses bred for the Derby / KG / Arc trip of 1m4f who end up needing further. Therefore if reducing the distances of those four races the racing authorities know it would kill the staying division stone dead. Diversity is European Racing’s strength.
It may well be that eventually the Dante and Champion Stakes become more prestigious than the Derby and Arc, but that’ll be market forces and – although I’ll be unhappy – so be it. No need to change the race distances.
Value Is EverythingBecause of the demand for speed the st leger is now a completely redundant leg of the “triple crown”
If a horse did win the guineas and Derby right now they wouldn’t even want to win the Leger as he’d be siring Cheltenham winners not classic winners
A triple crown that nobody wants to win is completely pointless
So something needs to change at some point
There needs to be a 10f group 1 for the classic generation
The Dante could be that race but it’s sandwiched a little too close between the guineas and Derby so maybe the dates of the races would need to be adjusted
The reduction of the Prix du jockey club to 10f doesn’t seem to have done it any harm
The Dante was run later in the “Covid Season” of 2020. Maybe it could be moved there permanently?
Let’s go the whole hog and run the Guineas over 5f, the Derby over six and the Leger over a mile.
Problem pre-emptively solved.
“But there must always be a 1m4f Derby, King George and Arc (or Group 1 replacements for those distances) and a 1m6f Group 1 St Leger.”
Why MUST there be, if they have become anachronistic?
I would prefer them all to stay at their current distances but I also want them to remain preeminent races. Will they remain so if the current preferences of owners and breeders continue?
The King George and St Leger are already in decline. Do we want the Derby to go the same way?
Agree totally GT leave the current race distances as they are. Just let other races eg Champion stakes the Dante become more prestigious naturally.
As Nathan says fashions do change. There was a time when the Grand National was nearly dead.
I was also thinking that maybe there is a call for a 1m2f 3yo only top class race, but there is the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot.
Is it just a fashion and will it change? Is someone really going to wake up one day and think “I think I will try to breed a slower horse today”?
This trend away from long-term stamina towards precocious speed isn’t a recent “fashion” – it’s been ongoing for many years.
If you ignore it, races lose their relevance and the St Leger is already a NH sires’ race with The Derby in danger of going the same way.
Unless you want a USA-style Triple Crown, with the St Leger becoming redundant altogether, the Dante is too early in the season to be that 3yo 1m2f Group 1 and to stage it after The Derby over 1m4f involves horses coming back in trip, though admittedly that’s the case with the Preakness Stateside.
The King George is already not the race it was – that’s something I’m sad about, but you could see it’s decline coming a mile off.
The International Stakes is much the better race nowadays – Sea The Stars, Frankel and Baaeed won it, and Australia swerved the King George to win it too.
Nothing changes quickly in British horse racing, but change eventually happens in the end.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Frankel had won the Derby and Arc would his stallion fee really have been much different.?
10f is a good target to be fair as its slap bang in the middle of the mile and 12f
If we reduce the Derby to 10f then we may start moving in the direction of a mile being the new target for breeders
If speed is everything why are they not just breeding for sprinters ?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Maybe “speed” is a bit of a misnomer. Breeders still want sufficient stamina to be effective at 10 furlongs.
If anything, the big operators do not focus on sprints which are about the only Group 1s where smaller stables are competitive. It is difficult to imagine the likes of Messrs Teal and Ivory training Group 1 winners at 8 or 10 furlongs.
When it comes to horses who are going for the Triple Crown, those who have a good chance of staying will still go for the Leger because of the prestige of winning a “Triple Crown”. Those unlikely to stay the trip will avoid it. eg Camelot (who’s by major stamina influence Montjeu) ran in the Leger. Indeed would probably have won the Leger if it wasn’t for the “winner” being trained by drugs cheat Zahrooni. Nashwan (by Blushing Groom) and Sea The Stars (by Cape Cross) also both won the first two classics but were by comparative speed influences. Both weren’t absolutely sure of staying the Derby distance let alone St Leger – so missed the final classic.
Australia was by Derby winner Galileo out of Oaks winner Ouija Board. Had he won the first two classics then am pretty sure he’d have been trained for the Leger. However, he was only third at Newmarket which meant the Triple Crown prestige was not there.
I wouldn’t have thought a St Leger win puts off breeders when a Triple Crown winner is already proven at a mile in top Group 1 company.
However, if they haven’t already won a Guineas or Dante then breeders like to see English Derby winners prove their speed (in future races) by winning a 1m2f Group 1. ie With a Derby winner that has not proven itself at 1m2f, then winning the Leger unfortunately may well put off breeders. Fact is most breeders prefer a stallion who was effective at 1m2f to 1m4f, rather than one effective from 1m4f to 1m6f.
Value Is EverythingGood article, as usual, from Kevin Blake but one thing he neglects to mention is that this year’s Arc looks very weak. Unless one of the Japanese horses is a superstar (and none of them have looked that so far), the race really is there for the taking.
The way Baaeed travelled and was going away at the finish at York suggested that a mile and a half would be within his compass; the only possible threat at Longchamp is heavy ground turning the race into a slog.
Experience has taught me only ever to refer to a race as “weak” in retrospect.
For example, in 1979 The Derby was considered the most open, hence weak, in years….until Troy won it going away by seven and three.
He went on to win the Irish Derby, King George and Benson & Hedges as was, the runner up won the Eclipse and the third won the Champion Stakes.
That said, the Arc isn’t a June contest for a bunch of progressive and still unexposed 3yos and I’m not seeing anything with an OR above 125 among the existing entries.
In fact, Mishriff if he ran would among the top rated and we all saw what Baaeed did to him at York.
I’d like to see Baaeed run in it, in fact I’ve got on what little I could at 5/4 with a run, but as previously stated, there’s been a global commercial shift from 1m4f to 1m2f as the epicentre of excellence in Flat racing, winning it wouldn’t add a penny to Baaeed’s stud value and getting beaten in it would, at the very best, leave that stud value unchanged.
More downside than upside, money talks and I reckon Ascot beckons.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“For example, in 1979 The Derby was considered the most open, hence weak, in years….until Troy won it going away by seven and three.”
Doesn’t that prove that it was, overall, a weak race?
There shouldn’t be ten lengths from first to third in any classic. Troy was clearly an extremely good racehorse but the others were “a bit meh”, as they say these days.
Oh, I dunno – the runner up wins an Eclipse, the third a Champion Stakes and now I come to revisit it, the fourth wins a Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, an Eclipse and a King George at four.
Far from being labelled “meh,” today’s racing media would surely be referring to a “trio of superstars” bested only by a “hyperstar” in “the race of the century!” (err, so far).
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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