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There was no gap, and there wasn’t suddenly a gap and then there wasn’t.
There was no gap, then next minute, Ruby just squeezes between the 2 horses because he knew there was no other way out at that time, Hurricane Fly was boxed in for a lot of the latter stages.
There was no gap to go for, he made his own gap and then went for it.
That is exactly right Gareth,
When the gap appeared Ruby was motionless, then the gap closed and he panicked barging his stable companion out of the way.
Anyway,
Am sure Hurricane Fly is an outstanding horse despite his main rivals capitulation today, should be tight between him and Binnocular next March. Look forward to it. Though would not be at all surprised to hear of an injury scare for HF between now and then. A horse who misses Cheltenham one year often misses Cheltenham the next. Hope they both keep sound.
Fist,
At Cheltenham I think it was after the turn that Go Native went for home. To be honest, he found more than I thought he would that day. Think he idled quite badly there. It is more his over all profile that suggests that he needs holding up until at least the last hurdle.
Now my confession:
I am diabetic so almost tea total, not that I drink that stuff either.
May be my blood sugar levels were low and it effected my judgement today.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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He’s a cert for the CH…he won that easy today despite Ruby making it hard for him…..with a clear run he’d have won more like 16l ! ps I wouldn’t be using El Dancer as any kind of yard stick though…. he’s not in the same parish, and will not go on to compete with the big boys next year.
I look forward to shouting home the fly next march.
No offence mate but you really have to take off those rose coloured glasses.
Hurricane Fly is without doubt a briliant novice, but ask yourself this. If Binocular had been in that race instead of him how easily would he have disposed of what can only be described as a moderate bunch of novices.
It’s one thing being enthusiastic but you fail to realise that the CH is in a totally different world to anything HF has experienced so far. I grant you he looks the part but until he can do what he is doing now against something like Celestial Halo or Punjabi then Binocular remains the most likely CH winner.
We woud all love to think Hurricane Fly could beat the top horses inthesame fashionas he truly would be one ofthe best ever seen but I wouldn’t dare use the word certainty for either horse at this time, but each to his own.
Hurricane Fly is without doubt a briliant novice, but ask yourself this. If Binocular had been in that race instead of him how easily would he have disposed of what can only be described as a moderate bunch of novices.
Binocular would have been found out by the stiff track and soft ground.
Ok, maybe not.
Your problem with Binocular is that he now looks pretty-much exposed, Fist – insofar as it seems unlikely he will make up into the kind of champion you once hoped he might.
The fact is that the form of this seasons Champion Hurdle isn’t all that strong (around Hardy Eustace/Brave Inca level, imo), and even if he is capable of better form than that, there has to be some doubt as to whether Binocular would be able to repeat it around Cheltenham.
Hurricane Fly has only marginal improvement to make, to put himself right in the Champion Hurdle picture – 10lbs at most, I reckon – and given he remains thoroughly unexposed in a division which is not particularly strong, I can understand why both layers are keen to swerve him, and punters are happy to give him a chance.
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Well I agree with you and I don’t agree with you. I would rate the current top hurdlers 7lbs above anything between now and then, Then being Istabraq.
I was particulary impressed by Celestial Halo at Cheltenham he is as tough as nails. In the same mould as Hardy Eustace but with a lot more toe IMO
Ever since Punjabi finished 2nd off 11s12lbs in the Tote he has done nothing but improve. He has won both and the flat destroyed CH winner Sublimity and then beat him again despite Nicky Henderson saying he wasn’t at the top of his form. That line to me is the only link between the horses in question and it’s clear IMO the current crop are a good bit better.
Despite all the old boys all having won decent races this season not one of the four could get a blow in. I would have expected at least one of them to be within striking distance but they could.t even do that.They all including Sublimity, finsihed behind horses like Muirhead Snap Tie and Jered.The difference between Binocular and Hurricane Fly is the later wins races from a position of swinging of the bridle. He has a great burst of speed nothing in training could live withoff the pace of the races he has run in.
Binocular is a much more relaxed type of horse and takes very little out of himself. He has proved that he can travel well when the pace is extremely fast and still produce an extra gear at the end of his races. Let’s be honest he didn’t lose at Cheltenham he just ran out of track. Another couple of hundred yards and he would have gone past.
He may not have the kick of Hurrricane Fly but he has already proved he can compete at te very top. Next year he will be in his prime and to be honest I think Hurricane Fly will have to be every bit as good at senior level as he is at novice to beat him.
Much depends how Hurricane Fly takes to a CH like pace when stepping upto the big time.
He’s very flat-like to me and very often these horses use so much of the energy they normally save just keeping up with the likes of Celestial Halo.
To produce the same turn of foot after chasing him round Chelteham he will have to be better than Istabraq himself IMO.He may well be that good as these flat types are very difficult to judge. He could also fold in a heap as there isn’t much off him and I doubt if he would
have the substance to outfight these horses if it came down to it.The way i see him is he will either turn out to be one of the best Champion Hurdlers of all time or he will be a compelte flop.
In short there is no in between with this type of horse. It could very well be heturns out to be the former and it could be the latter and I’m damned if I know which.
One other thing anyone who thinks Quevada is a CH horse think again. That is purely wishful thinking, she’s at least 10lbs inferior to Hurricane Fly and would be miles out her class. They thought Whiteoak had an excellent chance of a place and she wasn’t even sighted. She may not have beaten the mare in her race she most certainly wouldn’t have been beaten 25 to 30 lengths like she was in the Champion. Again it’s a different world out there and although she was impressive so were American Trilogy and Cooldine who’s owners dreams are now all but in tatters
Fist old chap…will you take a head to head bet on… I’ll have the Fly you can have Bini…. £50? I dont think i’m being rose tinted…I was a big fan of Bini last year…but he struggled at Chelts, and i think he will struggle again. HF looks like he goes on nearly all ground, can handle up to 2m4 and goes on undulating ground….
SuperKauto pretty much said what i was thinking. A win for Quevega against Punjabi & co will throw a bit of a spanner into the works.
I think Binocular still has a fair old chance. Punjabi got beat by 5 or 6 lengths at Cheltenham the year before going on to win it as a 6 y/o. Binocular will be 6, and should improve to the point where 13/2 at this stage looks fair money e/w.( considering what it started at this year )
Quevagas 16s for next years Champ Hurdle could be something to get on at the moment. We already knows she takes to Cheltenham.
The problem for me si though, i don’t have a Scooby what horse will head for what race.
Quevega already looks a cracking ew bet at 16’s for the Champion and a right price on Friday to beat Punjabi and a horse she has a decent beating of on a line through United.
Have just watched the finish of Hurricane’s last four races, rarely have I seen a horse win so commandingly. In particular, with the Leopardstown performance it’s easy to imagine and predict how next year he’ll cruise around the outside of the field on that final bend at Cheltenham, still on the bridle and leave everything trailing in his wake coming up the hill. For what it’s worth I would say this is a left-hooved horse and that Cheltenham is the ideal course to suit his style of running.That final burst of acceleration is explosive. If I was one for ante-post betting I really would think odds of 3/1 plus was money for old rope. My only, only concern would be very soft/heavy in places going.
No concern at all Ken – his win at Auteuil last season was on "very soft" equivalent of our heavy ground. There’s no chinks in this horses armour, even having two front running pacesetters couldn’t get him beat.
Fist – you probably should lay off that bet of yours on HF (if you haven’t already). As for Quevega – getting within three of four lengths of Hurricane Fly may well be enough to place in next years Champion.
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Can someone please show me where Hurricane Fly has ever run in a race run at anything like the pace of a Champion Hurdle (Yesterday’s race was around 4 secs slower than the Grade C h/c run over the same distance)? Many French jump races, like their Irish counterparts are often run at a dawdle, and staying 2.5 miles in those circumstances proves little in the context of the rigorous test provided by most CH’s.
Like Binocular, HF was an 8/10f horse on the flat, and visually impressive everywhere where speed takes precedence over stamina but, unlike Binocular, he has yet to nail his colours to the mast in similar circumstances to a CH and, as such, is a long way from the certainty that so many seem to see him.
What price would B have been in this season’s race, without that one single doubt against him that we all knew about?Watched the race when I got home from work last night. A few points:
Interference: mimimal to say the least. Fuss about nothing imo.
Price for the Champion Hurdle next year: 7-2 seems fair in that I certainly wouldn’t want to lay any bigger. However, we see this time and time again, hyped novice winning easily. You just don’t know what they are beating, and I find it difficult to back them until they have proven themselves against the top division. Not to say that HF won’t find the necessary improvement, just that you see more horses fail to do so than not. You also see hyped Irish horses, who generally run in small field slowly-run races struggle when they get to Cheltenham.
Quevega vs. Punjabi should give us an idea of the merits of the form though…
In summary, I wouldn’t be a backer or a layer at the current price.
Note of caution. Just listened to Willie Mullins on ATR and when Sean Boyce asked him how much improvement we could expect by next year, he definitely hesitated. If I read him properly there was just a hint that there wasn’t a significant amount of potential to work on. I got the distinct impression that based on how well Fly had been working at home this week Mr. Mullins couldn’t envisage much more progress. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.
What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.
Well, thats’ good enough for me then.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Note of caution. Just listened to Willie Mullins on ATR and when Sean Boyce asked him how much improvement we could expect by next year, he definitely hesitated. If I read him properly there was just a hint that there wasn’t a significant amount of potential to work on. I got the distinct impression that based on how well Fly had been working at home this week Mr. Mullins couldn’t envisage much more progress. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.
Even if that is the case, Ken, Hurricane Fly has not been extended in any way to hammer the best of this year’s novices.
He still has stacks of improvement to come, because he hasn’t been tested to anything like the limit of his ability yet.
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