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I’m baffled as to why only one person in a knowledgable forum like this has mentioned that the horse’s previous run was 143 days before (nearly five months) and that it has run just once in 51 weeks! Isn’t that alarm bells about proven recent fitness?
How did the horse pass any fitness test for the race? Ahh, there isn’t one.
Surely a horse must prove its fitness by completing a 3m race within 90 days (or three months) of the race itself – that is an easy fix isn’t it? That would surely help both concentrate the mind and aid the handicapper too! And we’d see the horse actually compete as well, another side effect bonus.
Finally, what was the handicapper doing putting CDA up 7lbs for winning a pretty average race at Bangor by 5 lengths? It’s not like he won by 60 lengths!
Hand on heart, years ago I would have had some amount of concern over a horse being off the track for that long without a run but we are now in a day and age where trainers can get their horses cherry ripe on the day to run a big race or win (even off of much longer layoffs) without having to use racecourse runs to sharpen their fitness up.
We don’t really know what the thinking was behind it, as to whether it was always fully planned that way or maybe it was by default as he could have been late coming back into the stable for the new season or he could have been slow to come to hand or had a minor setback that stopped him from running after the Bangor race in November. As he had amassed 30 runs under rules since his 5 yr old season and now being 13, maybe they just wanted to keep him as fresh for the race as possible……..its all speculation of course but as they say hindsight can be a wonderful thing.
Personally, there were several horses (Grangeclare West and Iroko spring to mind) that you had no evidence that they were going to be suited by going an extra 1m+ in distance (I didn’t think Iroko would stay let alone stay on as he did) and I thought both BMG and Hitman’s connections were mental running them in this (BMG especially when you consider how he finished legless when runner up to GDC in the Gold Cup – a race he has never been the same horse since imho).
There is also an argument that those jockeys on the horses that finished from 10th to 16th and last (which did include BMG) should have all pulled up as they were all beaten between 43L to 90L in total and clearly it was not in their best interest to keep going to the finish, especially considering that there were 6 horses that were actually pulled up inbetween 2 and 3 out for that very reason.
Not sure if, with the adrenaline pumping, it was more a case of just wanting to complete the course (even if it was in their horses own time) that overrode perhaps their better judgement of just calling it a day.
It didn’t ring alarm bells with me QF. I was thinking possibly they didn’t run Celebre D’Allen again after his win as this was the most likely way to keep him high enough in the handicap to get into the race.
I know he could have run after the weights came out, but perhaps they wanted to keep him fresh for the big day.
I suppose it’s possible the horse could have been treated with TCA, a drug that is not prohibited but most be clear from the horse’s system by race day. The drug is usually used in older horses. Any Currency was disqualified as the Cheltenham Cross Country winner back in 2016 after traces were found post-race.
QF,
Some horses can be argued “best fresh”, which includes Celebre D’Allen. The vast majority of his best form has been off long breaks (including his last two victories). He’s also got a great record over the Grand National fences. His record after 100+ day breaks reads:The win prior to the Grand National at Bangor came after a 215 day break.
The win in a Class 2 Veterans Chase at Aintree (Milmay Course) came after a 198 day break.
4th in a Warwick Class 2 Veterans might seem a little disappointing, but did best of those held up – off a 244 day break.
Won a Class 3 Haydock Handicap Hurdle off a 783 day break on his first race since returning to Britain.
…And even when trained in France won off a 311 day break there.Indeed, had Celebre D’Allen been given a run closer to the National, I’d have given him even less chance of winning. Because he’s either fitter in physique or mind when fresh.
That said, imo Nolan should have pulled the horse up earlier. Not that I blame him for the horse’s death, but although not in the saddle that day, he should have known what happened in the 2023 Beecher… Which was very similar to the National. Going from looking like the winner to very tired in strides on the home straight. Eventually finishing 38 lengths behind the winner. Palpably not staying the 3m2f albeit on almost unraceable ground. Someone on the thread said Celebre D’Allen never finds much, but that is not true. At 2m5f on soft ground in the Topham Celebre D’Allen did not lose much ground in the finish. Only beaten just over 2 lengths by the winner and only losing 3rd (to Kandoo Kid) on the post.
The Heavy going in the Beecher placed the emphasis on stamina for that trip. The time last week was one of proper Good ground, so I expected Celebre D’Allen to “stay” quite a bit further with the going placing emphasis on speed at the trip. However, the Grand National is a mile further than the Beecher. Always extremely probable Celebre D’Allen was at some point going to hit the same stamina wall he hit on Beecher day. Nolan should have been aware of this. I know it’s easier said than done. Having been travelling like a winner midway between the third and second last, to then expect the jockey (with adrenaline pumping) to pull up. But by the Rules Of Racing that’s what Nolan should have done.
Some on here have compared Nolan’s ride to others. Bravemansgame, even the winner Nick Rockett himself. But no other finisher in this year’s National (that I can recall) has so palpably been a non-stayer AND gone from going well to out on their feet in strides in a previous race. For sure, Nolan only used the whip once, but that’s not the point. It does not matter how many times the jockey has used the whip, if out on its feet the horse should be pulled up, full stop.
Value Is EverythingI’ve not gone through the replays of Bravemansgame’s career but he has shown more than once that trips over more than 3 miles stretch him to limit. He has never won a race even a yard beyond 3 miles.
He was out on his feet after the last in the National, in fact so badly he ended up beaten by 90 lengths into a pointless 15th.
The only difference is Bravemansgame didn’t collapse. Anyone critical of Nolan might like to explain why Reveley’s refusal to pull up wasn’t also questioned.
I don’t believe a 13 year old is more likely to die in the Grand National than younger horses. Indeed, there is a case for saying experience helps. What does matter is stamina. Or should I say “suitability for the trip”. When a horse has run out of stamina it is much more likely to be “out on its feet” at the end of the race, than one who stays the trip well. That said, Celebre D’Allen had winning form @ 3m1f so was not the worst of stamina question marks going into the race. So I can’t see an easy rule that could have ruled him out without also ruling out plenty of previous winners. Maybe all runners being put to a panel of judges might have seen what happened in the Beecher and said “NO”?
For me – the likes of Hitman, Fil D’Or and Appreciate It should not have been allowed to run. They had next to no chance of staying.
It has been said there should be “In And You’re In” races, because these are “stamina” horses and therefore have a better chance of staying the distance. I was originally in favour, but having thought more am now against. Horses who’ve won top class “staying handicaps” at 4m+ on heavy ground are seldom effective in the Grand National unless the going is similar. The Welsh Grand National is often needed to be run at a slower speed (because it requires more stamina) than the Aintree version… And heavy ground round actioned horses are more likely to die in a Good ground Grand National. Through breaking their legs. The Grand National being THE Grand National means trainers are more likely to take their chance, taking a chance on the going which they would not do in any other race.
In the lead up to the race people were wanting Mr Vango to run. I wasn’t. The ground was much too firm. Royale Pegaille should not have run either. His form is all on soft / heavy. But I don’t blame connections. The official “Good-Soft” meant connections of soft ground horses were more likely to take a chance, than they would’ve done on “Good”.
Value Is Everything“I’ve not gone through the replays of Bravemansgame’s career but he has shown more than once that trips over more than 3 miles stretch him to limit. He has never won a race even a yard beyond 3 miles.
He was out on his feet after the last in the National, in fact so badly he ended up beaten by 90 lengths into a pointless 15th.
The only difference is Bravemansgame didn’t collapse. Anyone critical of Nolan might like to explain why Reveley’s refusal to pull up wasn’t also questioned”.
——————————-Astralcharmer,
Bravemaansgame may have “not won a race even a yard beyond 3 miles” but he was second in the staying chasers blue ribbon – the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Some 6 1/2 lengths clear of all bar one of the best Gold Cup winners of recent years. Indeed, the level of his actual form performance put up by Bravemansgame that day (at 3m2f+) good enough to win several Gold Cups and is rated higher by Timeform than his King George victory (albeit won the latter race eased down).The opinion of the Gold Cup ruining the horse is also very dubious. As his next race was at Punchestown in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Again at least as good form as Kempton. Finishing 2 1/4 lengths behind Fastorslow (over 30 yards further than 3m). Certainly hasn’t been the same since his race in Ireland possibly a temperament / a wind problem. Has had three wind op’s, the first two worked wonders, but his wind may well have become worse.
ie Even though Bravemansgame has not won at further than 3m he has proven he stays 3m2f – when at his best. That said, I agree he was far less likely to stay further than 3m2f when taking into account his form since Ireland.
Yes, I would have liked Reveley to pull up too / should have known the horse’s recent weak finisher history. But Bravemansgame hadn’t stopped like Celebre D’Allen WHEN RACING AT A TIME WHEN AT HIS BEST. Please take a look at how Celebre D’Allen finished in that Beecher. Yes, Bravemansgame was borderline. But imo not as bad as Nolan’s failure to pull up / so Reveley’s not an offence bad enough to be fined.
Value Is Everything
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