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- This topic has 186 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 10 months ago by
KevMc.
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- February 4, 2020 at 16:47 #1481965
With the weight compression the UK handicapper will give him around 166-168.
February 4, 2020 at 17:31 #1481973Hed have won off a 166-168 mark the form he was in last year
With the troubled prep might be tougher this time
I will probably back him either way just so I can say i backed him for all 3 wins if he does it
February 10, 2020 at 18:39 #1482577Owner Garth Broom has urged punters to hold their Grand National bets on Native River – with the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup still this season’s main aim.
While Broom has not ruled out a trip to Liverpool next year, the short gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this time round is likely to see the 10-year-old miss the famous race.
Broom feels the Colin Tizzard-trainer chaser has one last chance of reclaiming the blue riband event he won in 2018, and that is next month – after his comfortable victory at Newbury on Saturday.
“It will be interesting to see what weight he gets, but his main aim this year is the Gold Cup,” said Broom.
“If he has a hard race it’s only three weeks to the National – so I wouldn’t advise anyone to put any money on him, because if he runs his race I don’t know if he’d have enough recovery time. He goes well fresh.
“Maybe next season it could be more of a target – when he’ll be 11 and the Gold Cup looks a little unrealistic – but if something happened and he couldn’t run in the Gold Cup then we’d still have another option.
“The thing is I think the horse is brave enough for the National – but I don’t know if the owners are! We get so uptight, even on Saturday. We love him so much.
“With your head, he looks ideal for the National. But the problem is the owners, not the horse – we’ve got so attached to him. If anything happened we’d never forgive ourselves.
“If he’s fit and well next season it’s more likely. This season it’s more on stand-by. If he runs his race in the Gold Cup I couldn’t see him running, but we’re not ruling it completely out at this stage.”February 11, 2020 at 11:21 #1482623Time to bet the first of my shortlist Horses, and in anticipation of any movement in the market in the next 24 hours, I’ve went with Any Second Now. Mentioned him enough already, but I like the prep he’s had, and his run last week was decent.
I’ve split Stakes to get a good bit at NRNB
Any Second Now 33’s EW 5 Places
Any Second Now 25’s NRNBAfter managing to avoid it all winter, I’ve started chipping away at a few on the Exchange.
They aren’t necessarily near the top of my shortlist, but at least provide chance of a good trade, and more importantly, the chance to go green. I’ll just name the biggest price taken.
A Toi Phil 530’s
Valtor 260’sFebruary 11, 2020 at 18:36 #1482658I’m happy to stick with my three, but several are jumping off the page after the weights reveal.
Alpha Des Obeaux was never my idea of a National horse, but his Becher third off top weight was a good sighter and a spin in the Gold Cup could see him primed for this off a very attractive weight.
Definitly Red has been one I’ve tossed and turned over for a few weeks. Looks weighted to go close and has been finishing his races like a horse after further all season.
Elegant Escape could be slipping under the radar a little and has been finishing best of all in his races this season. Been given the kind of National campaign I like in big field staying handicaps. All the focus seems to be on his stablemate, so the current price is very enticing.
Yala Enki was my main hope this time last year and it’s hard to argue with the campaign he’s had. That Welsh National run was an eye-catching one, however as mad as it sounds I’m not convinced Nichols is a natural at prepping National horses. Sounds mad considering he’s won it, but his record overall isn’t awe inspiring.
One For Arthur running off 10-02 sounds like free money. Runs off the same mark he won off three years ago and 6lbs lower than his brilliant sixth place effort last year after a less than ideal prep. Things seem to have gone to plan so far this year and even I’m tempted by him.
Can’t bet them all obviously, but it’s hard to resist one or two of them now we know where they stand in the handicap.
I’m looking at around the 9-13 mark as the likely cut off (66-72)
February 11, 2020 at 18:52 #1482660I’m obviously quite sweet on this season’s Becher Chase form as I’ve backed the first two already and highlighted the third, fourth and fifth home that day!
February 11, 2020 at 19:08 #1482662Why was Any Second Now eligible to run in the Florida Pearl Novice Chase?
He already is in his third season as a chaser and had more than 10 chase runs under his belt.
February 11, 2020 at 19:33 #1482667Happy enough with weights of my grand national antepost stable…
Any Second Now 33-1, OR152, 10 stone 6
Ramses de Teillee 66-1, OR151, 10 stone 5
Kimberlite Candy 25-1, OR150, 10 stone 4
One For Arthur 50-1, OR148, 10 stone 2
Takingrisks 40-1, OR147, 10 stone 1February 11, 2020 at 19:47 #1482670Ellison will be delighted with getting Def Red in with that weight , I already raised the question why are so many keen on one for Arthur , last run he was beat by def red getting 8lbs , he,s even less well off now …also I know he won’t be there but Jesus Native River off 11 6 ……fitz said at the weekend if he ran in the national he’d win …oh well maybe next year
February 11, 2020 at 19:48 #1482671Like Peter H has pointed out ONE FOR ARTHUR has been given a golden opportunity off the mark he won at. Took 33/1 with Ladbrokes but boosted to 35/1
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.February 11, 2020 at 21:00 #1482675Very happy with the weight for Kimberlite Candy. Hope the ground does not go against him too much.
Death Duty with 10-5 might be interesting if he could recover some sparkle.
February 12, 2020 at 09:17 #1482697@Ex-Rubylight The way the novice system works if you win a novice chase after 1st Feb i think it is, you remain a novice until Dec 1 the following season. His first chase win was at Cheltenham, hence being a novice until Dec 1.
February 12, 2020 at 10:19 #1482701I’ve decided to add Yala Enki to go with my earlier One For Arthur bet.
Paul Nicholls seemed reluctant to send him to Haydock on Saturday, but if he has a change of heart and YE runs well, I won’t be able to get this price, so I have taken 33-1.
February 12, 2020 at 12:03 #1482717KevMc: thanks for your explanation.
February 12, 2020 at 14:44 #1482734Bad news for us Kimberley Candy supporters is that he’s going straight there now.
A horse with 3 or more prep runs, including the last one in the same calendar year as the race, usually wins the National.
February 12, 2020 at 19:40 #1482770I had to bet Anibale Fly really, but part of me wonders about his well-being, and he might not really be getting plotted. He has been very well beaten recently.
I also like Jury Duty at 66/1.
I’ve bet both of them today.
February 14, 2020 at 00:22 #1482854Big price Jury Duty mate.
I’m trying hard to keep things under control this year, and no do a “book”, but he was a big fancy last year, and that looks the wrong price.
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