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Yes agree Mike007 that’s what I was thinking if he still being troubled by the problem then won’t be seen this season
VF x
The best horses should be in the best race. Fact To File won the key trial and the supplementary fee is loose change to the owner. It is very disappointing for the festival that the horse is not going to be in the Gold Cup.
I could understand the decision if Fact To File’s connections did not have many good horses and wanted to ensure they won a race at Cheltenham. But how many more winners at the festival do McManus and Mullins need?
A classic example of the festival being diluted.
There is that argument however maybe Mullins realistically knows FTF won’t stay , it’s been Mullins race the last few years however know there’s a good chance this year he won’t have a horse in the first 3 , if say it’s the most open race since 2014
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Maybe he won’t stay but how will they know for sure unless they try? The horse is clearly never going to run in the Gold Cup now, given his age.
Gigginstown havent had a gold cup horse for a few years
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“The horse is clearly never going to run in the Gold Cup now, given his age.”
Not so sure about that.
Horses are generally assumed to lose their speed (i.e. to get slower) as they age; there aren’t any seriously impressive staying novices coming through; other than Gaelic Warrior, Willie doesn’t appear to have any obvious Gold Cup horse for 2027 (unless Final Demand wins by a distance) at this stage.
GW might be that horse for Willie and being 8 (a year younger than FTF) that age is the sweet spot for Gold Cup winners as since 2000 the ages of 7 to 9 have won all bar one renewal (Long Run won in 2011 as a 6yr old). The record for each age is as follows:-
8 yr olds have won 11 times
7 yr olds have won 8 times
9 yr olds have won 5 timesThree 8yr olds (GW, The Jukebox Man and Inothewayurthinkin) hold three of the top four position in the betting with the 7yr old Jango Baie being the odd one out. So even as a 9yr old this year, FTF’s statistical chances of winning (based on age) were not as strong as GW and the fact that they are swerving the race (in a relatively open/winnable year) would indicate that he is highly unlikely to ever run in the Gold Cup. That would ring even more true if he were to win a 2nd Ryanair Chase next week as then you would imagine JP would want him to try and become the first ever three time winner of the race next season.
Its a real shame he is not running but that is where we are now mainly due to having a 4 day festival.
“… mainly due to having a 4 day festival.”
Won’t somebody please think of the beer sales!
So why wasn’t Paul originally riding GW ? , give Warrior a go but the stable obv don’t have him as the outstanding choice , I’ll say it again I don’t see why he reverses the KG form and I certainly don’t see him getting up the hill , at his price he some be near bulletproof , he isn’t
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
HDLG – At the time he was staying loyal to GDC who he had won two Gold Cups on.
Truth is that there is no current evidence at this stage to support the fact that The Jukebox Man or Jango Baie will get up the hill either – The Jukebox Man was outstayed by Stellar Story in the Albert Bartlett over 3m on heavy when looking sure to win (was that a lack of stamina????). Most of his form is on flat tracks like Kempton, Haydock, Newbury and Aintree with two of his defeats coming on undulating courses at Cheltenham and Chepstow (early in his career).
Jango Baie’s overall form isn’t outstanding and most of his relations operate around 2½m, yes he stayed on well to win the Arkle but we know that race fell apart and Kempton didn’t scream to me that he was crying out for another 2F.
GW has always got up the hill in his previous three visits to Cheltenham (never out of the first two) with comments stating “kept on well”, “kept on final 110yds” and “went clear run-in” and he won over almost 3m at Sandown when he powered up the hill there.
I do think the loss of momentum with Townend juggling with his whip on the run-in at Kempton arguably could have cost him the race when you realise he was beaten only a short head in 3rd and considering how hard he pulled early on in the Irish Gold Cup, he had every right to fall into a heap at the business end of the race and whilst no match for the winner, he stayed on stoutly to pull 8L clear of GDC on the run in.
The biggest worry for me with GW is whether Townend can get him settled early on, that will be critical to his chances because if he pulled like he did at Leopardstown it will compromise his chances that much more up that hill.
I think he is probably the most naturally talented horse in the race but an easy ride he ain’t – I feel the race could be run at a right good gallop and it just may well pay to sit off the early pace and try and sneak into the race late on…….tactics that worked well for GW at Aintree and Sandown last season.
The Jukebox Man will get a lead this time i think, unlike in the Albert Bartlett, trainer certain he’ll stay said he’s a more mature horse now.
Henderson been saying he’ll be surprised if his horse lost through a lack of stamina.
Gaelic has a chance to settle hugging the inside rail off what looks like being an honest gallop and potentially pick them off.In my mind i’m imagining a scenario whereby The Jukebox Man takes it off Haiti Couleurs and be leading coming to the second last, and then it’s a case of which horses (if any) are good enough, and have travelled well enough, to make a challenge coming from further back.
LD Paul will ride the horse with the best chance , it’s that simple , as for the most talented , no that would be Jukebox , he beat him in the KG and argueable could get be improving , totally argue there’s no guarantee any of the KG horses stay , that leaves you looking for a horse who will 100% get up the hill , and that leaves Haiti
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
He was on the wrong one in Ireland going purely by result.
You crab Patrick so how much closer would Gaelic Warrior have finished to FTF if Paul was onboard?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
He wasn’t catching him if Ruby was on Hughsie , I admire your faith however Gaelic has much to prove on Fri , and we know the man on board wanted to be in something else …
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
From a stamina viewpoint, the King George, despite a record time, wasn’t run at a great pace. Closing sectional 105.3.
Haiti Coloeurs will force everything to get the trip or drop away. I suspect that one of the factors in Fact To File not going there is the progress Inothewayurthinkin is making. He might well go off fav.
It’s looking very possible that the going will be goodish, bringing in the forgotten horse Affordale Fury.
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