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They.ll prob go GC again but National surely at some point , will yesterday leave a mark on APT ….
tbh I was deceived about the pace. Thought because so many had a chance three out that the pace must have been steady, but APT was by Racing Post Standard “fast by 4.25 seconds”.
Value Is Everything“Blackmore was showing off there.
Should have took a peak over her shoulder and eased A Plus Tard down.”Just watched the race back. Rachael was not going to die wondering about what might have happened, was she?
I suppose it is harsh and a little mean spirited to be critical because the adrenalin was pumping – but she could have taken it easier towards the end. Why subject a horse to a harder race than necessary?
A Plus Tard rated by Timeform the same as Allaho on 178.
Galopln rated 175p after his fall.Value Is EverythingHaving worked with stats and data, I don’t understand how you can rate a horse who doesn’t complete….you shouldn’t raise, or drop them. (Yes he was going to win comfortably, but he didn’t).
Not easy but probably easier for Timeform, Andy.
For sure it is not ideal and more of a margin for error is needed. However, leaving the rating is an even worse scenario. If “he was going to win comfortably” then you yourself are saying you know roughly what the horse would have achieved. Leaving the horse on a mark that is significantly lower is crazy. Knowing it would’ve put up a far better performance… Leaving the rating untouched means next time the horse runs the Timeform rating won’t give subscribers any idea of what Timeform believe it to be capable of. Those subscribers can themselves allow for the rating having a greater margin for error when considering what price they’d be willing to take.
I’d have thought Timeform can use some safeguards to ensure the rating is fairly accurate.
They already know the time taken from start to last fence and can add it to the time they think the horse would have taken from there to the line by using data from other horses in other races.
They can look at what the horse has done previously after going equally as well over the last fence or hurdle. ie If he finds little that would be allowed for in the rating given.
Timeform probably have thousands of examples of horses going equally as well over the last fence on that course, distance and similar ground and (allowing for weight carried too) know their average time taken from last fence to the finishing line.Value Is Everything
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