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Good shout with Clemmie Ginge, she could easily be the best filly (all ages) over 1m come the end of the season
Wish I had your confidence, Ben. tbh Market is speaking against Clemmie today. Out to 6/1 now!
Such a drift by a Coolmore horse – that needed the race badly last time out – suggests to me she’s not yet fully fit.Don’t want to lay it back at that price, but if betting right now I’d only have a saver on Clemmie. Fortunately my other two have shortened, particularly Threading.
I agree, if her injury hasn’t completely stopped Clemmie’s progress I expect her to be the best mile filly come the end of the season – possibly best of both sexes. But it looks ominous for today unless there’s money for her on course.
Value Is EverythingGinge what about Hannons? Can you put it down to a one off run or isn’t she a fairly big price??
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yes Ginge the drift certainly isn’t something you want to see on clemmie, like you said she just may still not be back to 100% but definitely one to keep on side this season
Ginge what about Hannons? Can you put it down to a one off run or isn’t she a fairly big price??
I don’t see why Hannon’s should be a fluke as such, Jack; although do wonder if Laurens would’ve won had she made a stronger pace. Yes, on strict form terms (ie only on ratings she produced compared to other Coronation rivals) Billesdon Brook is technically value. If that 1000 Guineas was up to form of an average renewal (average meaning mid-range of all Guineas winners) I’d be keen on her. However, imo it’s a little short of that level and therefore will need to improve again in order to win an average Coronation. May be today’s Coronation isn’t going to be up to an average renewal either, but it does have quite a few progressive types. One reason I backed Alpha Centauri ante-post for the English 1000 directly after the Albany last year was her size. imo AC and BB are currently of very similar ability, but big horses tend to improve through their careers and reach their peak level far later than smaller animals such as Billesdon Brook. So although improving at Newmarket – I think she’s far less likely to improve/improve as much as Alpha Centauri and some other rivals. Clemmie isn’t small or big, but she’s not had the opportunity to show just how good she is (particularly at a mile). Her two year old form (at a trip that on breeding should’ve been inadequate) is as good as anything here; so could improve a lot if fit. Threading was progressive and with good form going in to the Cheveley Park (5/2 to beat Clemmie
) disappointed there and in the 1000; but got right back on track last time. Only a 4 runner listed race but can be rated a lot higher than that suggests. Over this trip won by 7 lengths from the Fred Darling 1 1/4 lengths third.Value Is EverythingWEll done so far today ginge fingers crossed for the next 2 races come on the equilateral!!!
Equilateral drifted from 9/2 to 13/2 on betfair which now looks to tell the tale, Ben. Although do think he went too quick too soon. Thought the third was going to give me a big win @ 25/1 for a minute; but the race “saver” Eqtidaar won… And I managed to have a few quid on @ 18/1 just before the off (shame it was only a few quid) – can’t complain.
Onwards to the Coronation.
Value Is EverythingWell, Alpha Centauri proved me dead right, unfortunately. Big filly improving big time. Nice winner for me, but had she not been in the field would’ve had 20/1 about Threading.
But that is not only the best filly miler, she’s the best miler full stop.
Three winners from three races today, two from two yesterday
– can’t last.Value Is EverythingDiamond Jubilee:
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)Plenty will be against Harry Angel on his Ascot form. However, imo it’s not about the track, it’s about pace of the race and team tactics (what I call “non-triers”). Jockey on Intelligence Cross going too fast for his own good… but strangely enough improving Team Coolmore’s chances. Had they not done it last year in both Commonwealth Cup and Champion Sprint Harry Angel would have definitely won the former and possibly the latter too. In both races HA too free after being taken on up front; going too fast too soon. Winners Caravaggio and Librisa Breeze coming from off the pace. But – at his best – Harry Angel is imo quite a bit better than any of these, so @ 3/1 he’s worth taking the chance. Hopefully the “pacemaker” will be drawn away from Harry.
The spoiler drawn right next to Harry.
Am far less confident now.
Value Is EverythingDiamond Jubilee:
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)
27 points @ 16/1 (PP) City Light (min 13/1)
34 points @ 8/1 (B365) The Tin Man (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingDiamond Jubilee:
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)
27 points @ 16/1 (PP) City Light (min 13/1)
34 points @ 8/1 (B365) The Tin Man (min 15/2)
9 points @ 79/1 (betfair) Sir Dancealot (min 50/1)
LAY 12 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Harry Angel (max 7/2)Value Is EverythingRoyal Ascot:
So far (of bets already run):
Tuesday -15 points. Main bet Calyx winning and Without Parole saver from four races.
Wednesday +64.75 points. Aljazzi winning and Poet’s Word a saver from four races.
Thursday +288.5 points. Main bets Magic Wand and Stradivarius winning from two races.
Friday +416.65 points. Main bets Old Persian and Alpha Centauri and saver Eqtidaar all winning from three races.Royal Ascot total +754.9 points profit
Value Is EverythingQueen Alexandra:
35 points @ 11/2 (bet 365 4 places) Count Octave (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingHarry Angel settled well enough on seasonal debut and didn’t lead.
He’s a year older and may have matured a bit more
I’m not overly worried about the spoil, he’ll give Harry a good lead into the race hopefullyGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Diamond Jubilee:
81 points @ 3/1 (PP) Harry Angel (min 5/2)
27 points @ 16/1 (PP) City Light (min 13/1)
34 points @ 8/1 (B365) The Tin Man (min 15/2)
9 points @ 79/1 (betfair) Sir Dancealot (min 50/1)
LAY 12 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Harry Angel (max 7/2)
saver:
31 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Merchant Navy (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingHarry Angel settled well enough on seasonal debut and didn’t lead.
He’s a year older and may have matured a bit more
I’m not overly worried about the spoil, he’ll give Harry a good lead into the race hopefullyHarry Angel does not need to lead, Nathan; but does imo need to race prominently or with space. The chance of him running below form is increased if too many horses are around him. It’s possible he’s getting a little better with age, but I suggest you look again at that Duke Of York. You’ll see he wants to get after the leader and certainly doesn’t settle fully racing in a clear second in the early stages. When the leader is going a sensible gallop and/or nothing adjacent to Harry he’s fine. But this is a larger field and if Intelligence Cross is going a 5f pace and Harry has horses both sides – it might (only might) be different. Wanting to follow/go after the leader – may be going too fast for his own good and/or too free in restraint, expending energy and have nothing left for the final furlong.
Not saying it will happen, not even saying it’ll probably happen, just that the chances of it happening are greater than they were before the draw was made – because the spoiler is in the next stall. Therefore his chance of winning is now less than it was.
Value Is EverythingQueen Alexandra:
35 points @ 11/2 (bet 365 4 places) Count Octave (min 5/1)
15 points each way @ 15/1 (betfair 3 places) Nearly Caught (min 12/1)Value Is Everything
Such a drift by a Coolmore horse – that needed the race badly last time out – suggests to me she’s not yet fully fit.
– can’t last.
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