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Іn thе еаrlу flаt sеаsоn wоuld уоu RОІ/ рrоfіts bе lоwеr аs іt’s а nеw sеаsоn аnd іt’s hаrd tо knоw hоw thе hоrsеs hаvе changed or bееn dоіng durіng thе season brеаk?
No, Istabraq. My early season bets have – usually over the years – been just as successful as mid-season. Probably because although form can change from season to season, my Timeform Race Passes is good at identifying those with scope to improve and those that may not train on. Early season also places a greater emphasis on trainer form. Often pays opposing those horses with best form whose trainers are yet to hit form… And backing those not necessarily with best form but with scope for improvement who are from stables in good form. However, I don’t have as many bets early-season and there are certain meetings where I historically don’t do so well – eg Chester.
It’s the end of season where my ROI can struggle.
Value Is EverythingThat end of season thing usually starts to go downhill after the St Leger so:
2019 St Leger:
27 points @ 14/1 (B365) Broome (min 12/1)Value Is Everything4:10 Newbury
56 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Headman (min 5/1)
saver:
60 points @ 1.1/1 (betfair) Space Blues (min Evens)Another outsider main bet in this race, but he lacks liquidity at the mo’ so can’t put it up.
Value Is Everything4:10 Newbury
56 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Headman (min 5/1)
saver:
60 points @ 1.1/1 (betfair) Space Blues (min Evens)
10 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Dashing Willoughby (min 16/1)Managed to get some 23/1 last night, but not much of it about.
Value Is EverythingSeriously looking forward to that 4:10 race, Ginger. Really big fan of Dashing Willoughby through a line via Raakib Alhawa. Can’t be leaving him alone at 16/1. Shame Target Zone is a non-runner, would have loved to have seen whether he can adapt to turf.
Yes TKF, I’ve often gone to this meeting in the past and thought this is often a classy race. Value for at least listed status and Newbury should promote it as the Newbury Derby Trial. If run at a good pace 1m2f on soft or good-soft ground is going to be quite a stamina test, which should suit Dashing Willoughby. By Nathaniel whose horses usually enjoy softish ground and also an influence for stamina… and dam from the family of middle distance Group 1 winner Speedy Boarding. DW was a rare 2yo first time out winner for Andrew Balding (albeit only Wolverhampton)… And as you rightly say, form of his close second (best horse at the weights) to Raakib Alhawa in the Haynes Hanson & Clerk (a race won by Shergar!) not bad either. tbh Doubt he’s in quite the level of some of these, but might outstay them.
Some horses with masses of potential here. Space Blues massively impressive in his only start to date and won’t be a surprise to see him eventually representing the strong Appleby stable in a higher grade. Am though in two minds on stamina. Winner over further than a mile on soft ground seems to suggest stamina; but it wasn’t a fast run race and by Dubawi out of a 7f winner who was by miler Noverre. Headman a rare first time out winner for Roger Charlton – anything that wins first time out at two for the Beakhampton trainer tends to go on to be at least useful level. At the time thought it disappointing when beaten at odds-on next (only other) start. However, that was trying to give 7 lbs and only beaten 2 lengths behind Zakouski. Headman comes out of that the best horse at the weights and Zakouski is off to the Craven next week… and the probable Godolphin 2000 Guineas representitive! Hopefully won’t be too soft for Headman – the son of Kingman – so far only raced on AW. Seems still a bias against AW horses in the psyche of punters and bookmakers alike. Dam is 1/2 sis to dual Arc runner-up Flintshire. Turgenev was a Gosden representitive in the Vertem Futurity (Racing Post Trophy). Didn’t perform there but still has potential. Just wonder if a 3 lb penalty taking on some good types here will be too much for him. Money this morning has been for Brian Meehan’s Kaloor. One run one win in a Salisbury novice – so another with scope for improvement… Ditto King Ottokar. Keep saying this but a rare first time 2yo winner for Charlie Fellows; before finishing behind Tergenev and Dashing Willoughby (7th 8th and 9th) in Vertem Futurity. Floating Artist may not have the scope for improvement of some of these, but on form isn’t out of it either. Great Scot beat him only 2 lengths over a stamina mile before FA disappointed stepped back in trip… Whilst Great Scot went on to beat the three Futurity runners by further at Doncaster.
Yes, a race to look forward to, some will go on to better things from here.
Value Is EverythingDashing Willoughby ran well in second, might be worth aiming at the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. Disappointing Headman and Space Blues didn’t give themselves chance to stay this trip in the conditions, both too keen. Connections may think of dropping them back to a mile. Probably wouldn’t have troubled the winner anyway. King Ottakar won well and worth his place in a Derby trial.
Value Is Everything1:40 Newbury:
83 points @ 11/4 (WH) Young Rascal (min 9/4)
(Mootasadir NR)
partial saver:
40 points @ 1.66/1 (betfair) Defoe (min 6/4)Value Is Everything1:40 Newbury:
83 points @ 11/4 (WH) Young Rascal (min 9/4)
(Mootasadir NR)
partial saver:
40 points @ 1.66/1 (betfair) Defoe (min 6/4)
24 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Proschema (min 20/1)Value Is Everything2:10 Newbury:
83 points @ 11/4 (B365) Dancing Vega (min 9/4)
saver:
7 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Yourtimeisnow (min 15/1)Value Is Everything2:10 Newbury:
83 points @ 11/4 (B365) Dancing Vega (min 9/4)
saver:
7 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Yourtimeisnow (min 15/1)
20 points @ 20/1 (PP) Iconic Choice (min 14/1)
another saver:
13 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Star Terms (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingNothing stands out as value in the Greenham. Will have another look some time in late morning.
Nighty night.
Value Is Everything
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