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Think you have a very one dimentional view of what is and what is not a "fast time". We may be talking about two different things entirely.
You seem to think anything anywhere near a couse record is a "fast time". Numerically I supose you are right, but if times are to be used as a form tool, it has to be compared to other times on the day, or on similar going.
There are days (friday of Royal Ascot for example) when track records are broken with some regularity. Anyone who judges these things purely on record times might think the winners were all exceptional horses. Where as, all that record times actually tell you is how firm the ground was and that there was no dolling out of rails. Wind speed and direction can also have a big effect on times.
When looking at form, times have to be judged in comparrison to other races on the card.
As I said, the Bunbury Cup was run in a time that compares well with the July Cup. Considering Plum Pudding carried 8lbs more than Fleeting Spirit. May be by your definition of a "fast time" (somewhere near course record) the July Cup was a "fast time". But under
my definition
(
comparing to other races on the day, and considering it was a Group 1 event
) it was
NOT
a "fast time".
Sorry I did not explain this well enough before mate, only as someone who used times in selection finding; I thought you realised. If your selection process does not take this in to account, then I fear your invstments are eventually doomed to failure.
A horse can put up a fast time (comparrison) on firm or even heavy going.
Also, to fom an opinion on times alone is doomed to failure, as allowance must be made for slowly run races.
Value Is EverythingThe july cup shows just how hard it is to read a race.I backed jj the jet plane. He was the only horse that I was sure was going to up there off this slow pace.I knew there was no pace but didnt know what the jockeys were going to do.The winner I thought was going to be held up along with the favourites.If I knew Fleeting was going to be in the van I would of backed her.The trouble here is why did the jockeys on the favourites still hold the horses up?Its like playing poker trying guess what they are going to do.Common sense would say get closer to the pace but they still sit back.So you have no chance.The best thing I guess is to leave slow races alone….
I supose connections of Paco and Scenic thought there would be a fast enough pace early on. With either JJ or Equiano forcing it. Unfortunately, I thought Hannon and co would realise a slow early pace was a large possibility or even probability, so racing more prominently. Like you say, race reading is difficult, I too would probably have backed Fleeting Spirit had I known she’d race prominently. All we can do is look at a horse’s form and make a percentage call. Well done to connections of Fleeting Spirit and all who backed her.
Value Is EverythingThats the point I was trying to make to ginger without spelling it out..If front running horses find their feet without any rush they will run fast times.Infact most horses can run fast times.
Front runners can indeed produce "fast times" never said they couldn’t, but they need to be allowed to run level fractions to do so. If they are harried early on (to go faster than they want to); or able to set slow fractions early (without being pushed by others), then a slow time will probably be the result. Of course if a fast over all time is advantageous to a front-runner (if it’s a stayer at the trip) the jockey coud purposely make a level fast pace, even without being pushed to do so.
Value Is EverythingThink you have a very one dimentional view of what is and what is not a "fast time". We may be talking about two different things entirely.
You seem to think anything anywhere near a couse record is a "fast time". Numerically I supose you are right, but if times are to be used as a form tool, it has to be compared to other times on the day, or on similar going.
There are days (friday of Royal Ascot for example) when track records are broken with some regularity. Anyone who judges these things purely on record times might think the winners were all exceptional horses. Where as, all that record times actually tell you is how firm the ground was and that there was no dolling out of rails. Wind speed and direction can also have a big effect on times.
When looking at form, times have to be judged in comparrison to other races on the card.
As I said, the Bunbury Cup was run in a time that compares well with the July Cup. Considering Plum Pudding carried 8lbs more than Fleeting Spirit. May be by your definition of a "fast time" (somewhere near course record) the July Cup was a "fast time". But under
my definition
(
comparing to other races on the day, and considering it was a Group 1 event
) it was
NOT
a "fast time".
Sorry I did not explain this well enough before mate, only as someone who used times in selection finding; I thought you realised. If your selection process does not take this in to account, then I fear your invstments are eventually doomed to failure.
A horse can put up a fast time (comparrison) on firm or even heavy going.
Also, to fom an opinion on times alone is doomed to failure, as allowance must be made for slowly run races.
Think you have a very one dimentional view of what is and what is not a "fast time". We may be talking about two different things entirely.
The way you talk as if you know everything and nobody else knows anything.The crap you tip up on here is embarrassing esp when you know it all.I way be one dimentional but its a winning dimention.
Think you have a very one dimentional view of what is and what is not a "fast time". We may be talking about two different things entirely.
The way you talk as if you know everything and nobody else knows anything.The crap you tip up on here is embarrassing esp when you know it all.I way be one dimentional but its a winning dimention.
Why don’t you put up or shut up mate.
Put your tips on here, we can start from scratch and see who has a "winning dimention". You may be a better tipster than me, but at the moment all I see is hot air. Everyone has a bad month or two, sure you have in your time. At least I’ve got the bottle to do this. You may like to look around, have quite a good record on a couple of other forums.
I do take on the great and good, Racing Post, Raceform etc, in a racing quiz, so think I know a bit about the game. Always learning though and certainly don’t know everything. Only stating an opinion, that’s all mate. Please respond the same way (with an explanation) Placemat, otherwise suggest you look elsewhere.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Dimension
– ffs!"
Think you have a very one dimentional view of what is and what is not a "fast time". We may be talking about two different things entirely.
The way you talk as if you know everything and nobody else knows anything.The crap you tip up on here is embarrassing esp when you know it all.I way be one dimentional but its a winning dimention.
Why don’t you put up or shut up mate.
Put your tips on here, we can start from scratch and see who has a "winning dimention". You may be a better tipster than me, but at the moment all I see is hot air. Everyone has a bad month or two, sure you have in your time. At least I’ve got the bottle to do this. You may like to look around, have quite a good record on a couple of other forums.
I do take on the great and good, Racing Post, Raceform etc, in a racing quiz, so think I know a bit about the game. Always learning though and certainly don’t know everything. Only stating an opinion, that’s all mate. Please respond the same way (with an explanation) Placemat, otherwise suggest you look elsewhere.
take a look i have tipped on here……….
2:20 Newbury
14 points @ 8/1 (B365 bog) Prime Defender
10 points @ 12/1 (Fred) Doncaster RoverQuestion for you Placemat.
In the 2:20 at Newbury, who do you think will lead? Now that Tranquil Tiger and Supaseus are out. Seems to have totally changed the race.Value Is Everything3:55 Newbury
12 points @ 12/1 (L) Prince Siegfried
9 points @ 16/1 (SJ bog) Crime SceneValue Is Everything3:55 Newbury
12 points @ 12/1 (L) Prince SiegfriedNon-runner
9 points @ 16/1 (SJ bog) Crime Scene
1st
Suppose the public do not like second strings / those ridden by Ajtebi, drifted to SP of 25/1 (had bog). Went in again on course at 33/1. With both "front runners" Tranquil Tiger and Supaseus early withdrawls this morning it changed the race. Crime Scene or Prince Siegfried (both Godolphin, so unlikely to take each other on) the most likely to lead. The front runner in a slowly run race having an advantage. Crime Scene ran badly last time, but that when the stable was in very poor form, now a lot better. At 16/1 he was a good bet, at 33/1…..
Hope you were on that one Placemat. Pace is certainly a way to make money.
Value Is Everything Thanks Marble.3:10 York
My prices to 100%:
Kirklees 13/8, Tazeez 9/2, Curtain Call 7/1, Allied Powers 17/2, Monitor Closely 15/1, Smokey Oakey 15/1, King’s Gambit 28/1, Hallicarnassus 33/1, Macorville 132/1.39 points @ 2/1 (L) Kirklees
4 points @ 11/1 (C) Allied PowersValue Is Everything4:25 Ascot
14 points @ 8/1 (T, L)Look Here
10 points @ 12/1 (SJ bog) Ask
20 points @ 7/2 (generally) Tartan BearerValue Is EverythingMy 100% book for good going.
Conduit 15/8, Tartan Bearer 3/1, Look Here 6/1, Ask 9/1, Golden Sword 12/1, Alwaary 16/1, Frozen Fire 33/1, Scintillo 500/1, Rockhampton 2000/1.
Analysis on Big Race Discussions
Value Is Everything7:35 Salisbury
17 points each way @ 9/2 Present AlchemyThis looks a poor maiden, Miss Frangipane should be fav but is plenty short enough for what she’s done. Priced up more on breeding and purchase price.
Present Alhemy has been running over a trip he had little chance of staying (especially on a soft surface). Could improve a great deal at todays 2f shorter trip.
A market move for High Achieved could be significant, trainer can get them ready first time. Must have had an injury to be making her debut this late.
None of the others make much appeal, hence the each way nature of the bet (almost a free win bet).
Value Is Everything8:40 Salisbury continued
11 points @ 10/1 (B365 bog) Cumna Bay
3 points @ 44/1 (betfair) Hail PrommenaderMy book, prices to beat:
Santefisio 11/4, Perfect Frend 7/1, Iasia 15/2, Cumana Bay 8/1, Tie Medicean 9/1, Satwa Laird 10/1, Floor Show 15/1, Spinners End 20/1, Hail Prommenader 28/1, Finnegan McCool 40/1, Bouggie Daize 50/1.
Value Is EverythingAn open handicap, other than possibly the favourite. I had the two non-runners as my second and third favourites. Santefisio has not had good rides of late; given plenty to do. Although there is no confirmed front runner in the field, there are enough prominent runners to suggest a truly run race. Stable are in good form and conditions are in his favour.
Perfect Friend has been running well, but trainer is not in such good form. Goes well at a mile or 7f, on a firm and soft surface. Possibly getting to be exposed now.
Iasia is not so consistent but ran well last time. However, that was not as competitive race as here.
Cumana Bay, progressive before coming down to this trip last time. However, a slowly run 7f may not have played to his strengths. Provided this is truly run (stiff track too) could still run well from a good draw. Stable in fine form.
Time Medicean is possibly too exposed to win a race like this.
Satwa Laird would have a chance if ignoring his run last time.
Floor Show likewise.
Spinner’s End possibly needs further.
Hail Prommenader was held up last time and usually races prominently. Has been consistent, probably won’t be good enough but at 44/1 it’s worth a chance.
Finnegan McCool’s temperament may not be the best. Unlikely to get home.
Bouggie Daize is a stable companin of Perfect Friend, will posssibly do better another day.
Value Is Everything
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