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And I have no problem with Phil Smith raising Elliot’s horses more than other trainers’ runners, it shows he doesn’t want to be mugged off and though it’s not consistent across all trainers; it shows he has an opinion and that’s something you certainly need in this game.
That’s not the point in handicapping though. He is meant to rate the horses on what they have done
You have a point
That unsure face is to say I don’t know what the answer is, didn’t mean it to look like I don’t know what point you have lol
I’ve said for years that Smith is obsessed that certain trainers are trying to get one over on him.
His manipulating of horses ratings so as to get one over is wrong in my opinionI suppose he thinks 10:07 would be fairer? Typical spew from an immensely unlikable individual. Hopefully another step towards him quitting the game altogether on the grounds of “that’s so not fair”
Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.What habndicap mark did you expect Don Poli to get, THM?
Don Poli has not been “put up”, his handicap mark in Britain is 165 and HAS been “condensed” down to 163. So what, if the Irish handicapper rates Don Poli on 161, does not mean Don Poli has been put up if running on a BRITISH mark of 163. It’s a different scale.
Don Poli recieved 5 lbs and beat Many Clouds 4 lengths in December 2015. So on form Don Poli is a 1 lb worse horse than Many Clouds.
End of that season Many Clouds handicap mark was “condensed” slightly down to a mark of 165 for the Grand National.
imo Don Poli is as good now as he was when taking on Many Clouds. Just because a horse doesn’t win race/s doesn’t mean it should be dropped, especially when running in Grade 1’s. So when Many Clouds ran off 165 in the Grand National, I was expecting Don Poli to get 164 this year (he’s got 163)… And just as Many Couds was well handicapped on his mark, so too is Don Poli this time.
Empire Of Dirt was 3/4 length in front of Don Poli in the Irish Gold Cup and rightly gets 1 lb more than his owner/stable companion.
Outlander beat Don Poli 2 1/4 lengths in the Lexus and gets 3 lbs more. Arguably should’ve been 2, but that’s just a pound.O’Leary has not got a clue when it comes to handicapping horses. Or may be he just comes out with these things to put pressure on the handicapper for future Grand Nationals?
Value Is EverythingA number of interesting point on this thread, here’s my taken on some of them:
Mega Fortune
I believer Smith put Mega Fortune on 146 when entered for a recent Cheltenham handicap. Regardless of what Mega Fortune did on Sunday, that rating seems very high to me for what the horse had done – here is the key for me, horses should be handicapped on what they have done, not what they might do. If Mega Fortune was on 146, what did Smith have Baupaume and Landofhopeandglory on? Let’s say 150. Mega Fortune turned the form around with Baupaume at the weekend, to the tune of 5.25 lengths. Did Mega Fortune improve or did Baupaume run below par. The latter is possible but it’s more likely that Mega Fortune improved due to the application of cheek-pieces. Does that make Mega Fortune a 155 horse now? That’s the rating Defi Du Seuil is currently on, so it’s surprising that he is almost three times the price of the Triumph hurdle favourite.Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.The handicapping of the Elliott horses in general
I think it was Tony Keenan who produced statistics last year on the treatment of the Elliott horses. Thewexfordman above compliments Smith for doing a better job of handicapping them than Noel O’Brien. The problem I have with that is that the handicapper should rate a horse on what they have done, not what they might do or may be capable of. If Elliott is not running horses on their merits then it is up to the Stewards to act, not the handicappers.The Crafty Butcher
Now this is a strange one. The horse runs a somewhat unlucky second in one of the most competitive handicaps of the season and Smith was seemingly not that impressed. Absurd though it may sound to Robnorth, the fact that the horse would likely have went off favourite for the Kim Muir and now won’t get into the race seems more than a little coincidental to me.The ‘scale’
Kingsprintersacre mentions the handicap scale between the UK and Ireland being out of kilter, but for me the problem is there is no scale. If there was a standard rise in rating for an Irish horse entered in the UK I don’t think anyone would be complaining, but some horses (and trainers) go up a hell of a lot more than others and some horses are even dropped. A few weeks ago I saw Smith on ATR with the ‘Noel O’Brien does a great job etc’ stuff and am struggling to see how he can stand by those comments given the difference in ratings.The situation and system is very unsatisfactory for me.
An excellent post, fair play.
One tging, I think ginger is correct in relation to don poli’s mark though, I think o Leary has no case.
I really do believe the crafty butcher is the most questionable of all smiths decisions in recent times
The Irish handicapper is lenient to say the least. This Rashaan will hack.up in Ireland when he runs in a handicap.
The Irish handicapper is lenient to say the least. This Rashaan will hack.up in Ireland when he runs in a handicap.
I disagree in that case, he was beaten into 13th place in a handicap off 133 and could only win an all weather handicap by a neck off a mark of 81, that doesn’t suggest that the horse is going to hack up in a handicap hurdle in Ireland. Smith took the form of his down royal hurdle win too literally. He had been running over the summer and was race fit and thus beat an unfit apples jade and an unfit and poorly ridden petit mouchoir on what was basically summer ground. If owners and trainers are going to be hammered for taking part in such races like that and fluking a win then its no wonder why such races have so few entries
PS. The 4th horse in that race is my manekineko who was also fit from a flat campaign and ran 8.25 lengths behind rashaan in that race off level weights yet smith gives rashaan 150+ and gives my manekineko a mark of 126. Surely if my manekineko is a 126 horse in Britain then rashaan should be a 134 horse on that basis, not a 150+ horse
I’m still failing to understand why there’s a general feeling of scandal around The Crafty Butcher?
He came 2nd in a decent looking race off a low weight and Phil Smith put him up 5lbs for it….just 2lbs less than the Irish handicapper put him up…..at the same time Phil Smith put the winner Noble Endeavor up 11lbs as opposed to 10lbs by the Irish handicapper…
So in effect he was a little more impressed with the winner, to the tune of a pound…and a little less impressed by the runner up to the tune of 2lbs….considering the horses previous run and the ‘never nearer’ comments I’d say that was a pretty fair assessment…
With the Kim Muir in mind for Cheltenham…and surely not feeling they were guaranteed to get in…why didn’t they…a) make a phonecall like he said in the interview earlier?….and why did they run the horse last time in a handicap hurdle?
I just don’t see the controversy??
However Phil smith also appears to be trying to ensure that some irish horses cant qualify for races at cheltenham by either giving them marks too low or marks too high and this appears to be deliberate. For example there is no reason why smith would want to rate the Crafty Butcher 4 pounds LOWER than his irish mark other than he wants to make it very difficult for the horse to have a high enough mark to qualify for a handicap at cheltenham or the grand national, he is racing off 134 in Ireland but has a grand national mark of 130 (9st 4) If smith were to have given him his irish mark plus the usual 3/4 pounds for being irish trained, then that horse would be down to carry 9st 12 in the grand national and thus have a realistic chance of getting a run in the race. He is rising all other irish horses yet he lowers the crafty butcher by 3, despite the fact that he has run very well in big handicaps and is clearly already well handicapped. This shows a bias towards trying to prevent irish horses from winning big handicaps in britain or even getting an opportunity to run in them. Rashaan is another example.
As far as I can see, The Crafty Butcher is on a British mark of 132, TWM, not 130 as you suggest.
On his last chase run before the excellent Irish Paddy Power 2nd, The Crafty Buther was in fact a British horse with a British mark. When trained (for the one and only time) by Gary Moore he ran off a mark of 127 at Uttoxetter (well beaten). So – like Don Poli – already had a BRITISH mark. ie Already had his form assessed up to Uttoxeter by the British handicapper and Uttoxeter was a disaster not worth assessing.Normally for a horse on British debut you’d expect a higher handicap mark than he’d been running off in Ireland. But TCB hadn’t impressed, pulled up off Irish marks of 131 and 132 on two chase starts before Uttoxetter and only beating one home in each of two Grade 2’s prior to that. So for Uttoxetter that’s probably the reason TCB was running off a British mark 4 lbs less. Transferred to Mullins; Irish handicapper followed Phil Smith’s lead by dropping TCB to 127 (from his last Irish mark of 131).
The Irish handicapper thought the 3 1/2 lengths 2nd to Noble Endeavor was worth an increase of 7 lbs 127 + 7 = 134, compared to the British Handicapper reckening on 5 lbs better than the form he was assessed for (before) the Uttoxeter run 127 + 5 = 132.
Stellar Nation was 4th in the Irish Paddy Power, then put up 2 lbs and only got beaten a neck in the Leopardstown Handicap. Stellar Nation finished 4 lengths behind The Crafty Butcher in the former, so I would’ve expected TCB to go up 4 lbs more than SN (6 lbs in all). 6 lbs being 1 lb more than the British handicapper and 1 lb less than the Irish handicapper.
So how is Phil Smith being intentionally lenient on The Crafty Butcher?
Value Is EverythingAlso….he went up 5lbs for finishing 2nd in that race and other than him….another 19 of the field have run since and not one has won….few placed but not one winner…so how much should he have gone up?
Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.I’ve copy and pasted the following from an article in the guardian written at the 2016 National weights lunch….seems consistent to me when reading that and then seeing what he’s done at the top this year?
12.20pm Tinkerman not tinkering as much with the weights
Chris Cook: Phil Smith, the senior British handicapper, has for the last 17 years compressed the top of the weights for the Grand National to encourage trainers of better horses to take a chance on the race. This time, he has only done so to the extent of the top five horses in the weights, who all have 1lb less to carry than they normally would, which Smith says is the smallest amount of tinkering he has ever applied to the National.That is in part the consequence of connections now being willing to tackle the Aintree race with top-quality animals. “I’ve achieved what I set out to achieve all those years ago,” Smith said. “The job is 99% done. A dead-heat would make it 100%.”
Pointing to the fact that Long Run, Lord Windermere and Silviniaco Conti are all entered, Smith continued: “I never thought we’d get Gold Cup winners and King George winners and none of them would be topweight. So that’s really positive.”
The topweight is Many Clouds, who managed to win last year’s National under 11st 9lb and will have just 1lb more to carry in absolute terms this year. “Many Clouds is already favourite for the race, so why compress him even more?” Smith said. “All that’s going to do is shorten his price even more.”
He added that he had used “the Aintree factor” to justify raising the ratings of Pineau De Re, Highland Lodge and Alvarado, who all have good form over the National fences. All of those are set to carry 10st 2lb, which, in Smith’s view, should be enough to ensure they make the cut at the bottom of the weights.
He believes the cut will fall among those set to carry 10st 1lb and advised connections of those horses to run them before the big day. While they will get no extra weight if they happen to win another race before 9 April, any rise in their rating would mean they would make the cut before other horses set to carry the same weight.
The Smith Effect
Horses whose Grand National weights have been tinkered with by the senior handicapper:
Many Clouds -1lb
Don Poli -1lb
Silviniaco Conti -1lb
Carlingford Lough -1lb
Valseur Lido -1lb
Pineau De Re +2lb
Alvarado +6lb
Highland Lodge +6lbYou have to wonder if O’Leary really gets any joy out of the game. I’ve always thought ultra competitive toy throwers are basically pretty unhappy with life
The Irish handicapper is lenient to say the least. This Rashaan will hack.up in Ireland when he runs in a handicap.
I disagree in that case, he was beaten into 13th place in a handicap off 133 and could only win an all weather handicap by a neck off a mark of 81, that doesn’t suggest that the horse is going to hack up in a handicap hurdle in Ireland. Smith took the form of his down royal hurdle win too literally. He had been running over the summer and was race fit and thus beat an unfit apples jade and an unfit and poorly ridden petit mouchoir on what was basically summer ground. If owners and trainers are going to be hammered for taking part in such races like that and fluking a win then its no wonder why such races have so few entries
PS. The 4th horse in that race is my manekineko who was also fit from a flat campaign and ran 8.25 lengths behind rashaan in that race off level weights yet smith gives rashaan 150+ and gives my manekineko a mark of 126. Surely if my manekineko is a 126 horse in Britain then rashaan should be a 134 horse on that basis, not a 150+ horse
Maybe. You can look at it from both ends. Did the other 2 underperform or has he improved? See how he runs Sunday in the Red Mills.
Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.I’ve copy and pasted the following from an article in the guardian written at the 2016 National weights lunch….seems consistent to me when reading that and then seeing what he’s done at the top this year?
12.20pm Tinkerman not tinkering as much with the weights
Chris Cook: Phil Smith, the senior British handicapper, has for the last 17 years compressed the top of the weights for the Grand National to encourage trainers of better horses to take a chance on the race. This time, he has only done so to the extent of the top five horses in the weights, who all have 1lb less to carry than they normally would, which Smith says is the smallest amount of tinkering he has ever applied to the National.That is in part the consequence of connections now being willing to tackle the Aintree race with top-quality animals. “I’ve achieved what I set out to achieve all those years ago,” Smith said. “The job is 99% done. A dead-heat would make it 100%.”
Pointing to the fact that Long Run, Lord Windermere and Silviniaco Conti are all entered, Smith continued: “I never thought we’d get Gold Cup winners and King George winners and none of them would be topweight. So that’s really positive.”
The topweight is Many Clouds, who managed to win last year’s National under 11st 9lb and will have just 1lb more to carry in absolute terms this year. “Many Clouds is already favourite for the race, so why compress him even more?” Smith said. “All that’s going to do is shorten his price even more.”
He added that he had used “the Aintree factor” to justify raising the ratings of Pineau De Re, Highland Lodge and Alvarado, who all have good form over the National fences. All of those are set to carry 10st 2lb, which, in Smith’s view, should be enough to ensure they make the cut at the bottom of the weights.
He believes the cut will fall among those set to carry 10st 1lb and advised connections of those horses to run them before the big day. While they will get no extra weight if they happen to win another race before 9 April, any rise in their rating would mean they would make the cut before other horses set to carry the same weight.
The Smith Effect
Horses whose Grand National weights have been tinkered with by the senior handicapper:
Many Clouds -1lb
Don Poli -1lb
Silviniaco Conti -1lb
Carlingford Lough -1lb
Valseur Lido -1lb
Pineau De Re +2lb
Alvarado +6lb
Highland Lodge +6lbZamorston, imo some of the comments from Smith in that article are ludicrous. He used Many Clouds market position to justify his decision not to compress him any more, what has market position got anything to do with handicapping a horse? You list the horses Smith has tinkered with, but my question would be why tinker at all? I see in the article Smith mentions ‘the Aintree effect’. I see know reason why the Grand National should be treated any different to every other race in the calendar year. If he tinkers with the Grand National, why not tinker with other races? If horse A has great form at Haydock do you give it a few extra pounds when it runs there? Of course not, it’s completely crazy for me.
Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.What habndicap mark did you expect Don Poli to get, THM?
Don Poli has not been “put up”, his handicap mark in Britain is 165 and HAS been “condensed” down to 163. So what, if the Irish handicapper rates Don Poli on 161, does not mean Don Poli has been put up if running on a BRITISH mark of 163. It’s a different scale.
Don Poli recieved 5 lbs and beat Many Clouds 4 lengths in December 2015. So on form Don Poli is a 1 lb worse horse than Many Clouds.
End of that season Many Clouds handicap mark was “condensed” slightly down to a mark of 165 for the Grand National.
imo Don Poli is as good now as he was when taking on Many Clouds. Just because a horse doesn’t win race/s doesn’t mean it should be dropped, especially when running in Grade 1’s. So when Many Clouds ran off 165 in the Grand National, I was expecting Don Poli to get 164 this year (he’s got 163)… And just as Many Couds was well handicapped on his mark, so too is Don Poli this time.
Empire Of Dirt was 3/4 length in front of Don Poli in the Irish Gold Cup and rightly gets 1 lb more than his owner/stable companion.
Outlander beat Don Poli 2 1/4 lengths in the Lexus and gets 3 lbs more. Arguably should’ve been 2, but that’s just a pound.O’Leary has not got a clue when it comes to handicapping horses. Or may be he just comes out with these things to put pressure on the handicapper for future Grand Nationals?
GT, it’s not about what rating I think Don Poli should have got, as I said I don’t think the mark he has received is a major issue. “It’s a different scale” you say. There is no scale, that is the problem.
Surely I am not alone in finding this whole debacle very unsatisfactory. Does a horse suddenly become better or worse depending whether it runs in the UK or Ireland?
Smith has a completely different set of ratings for Irish horses to what the Irish handicappers have, yet repeatedly states that Noel O’Brien is an excellent handicapper, which is a statement he cannot stand by given he says they spend 18 hours a week compiling their own ratings for Irish horses.
It happens every year with Cheltenham and Aintree but this year there seems to be more high profile cases. The two sets of handicappers need to have a sit down and come up with a proper ‘scale’, whereby everybody knows where they stand, because at the moment nobody has a clue what sort of rating a horse will get until Smith produces a figure. That’s not good for owners, trainers, or punters.
Smith enjoys the spotlight and I don’t think he’d deny that. The special treatment of the National will also be a device Aintree clings to for publicity and for something on which to anchor their annual London celebration lunch/dinner.
I can’t see the whole thing standing up much longer and Mr Smith will be left to fade into the background which, arguably, should be his place anyway.
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