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There’s nothing to separate SOF and Getaway imo.
SOF had a hard race before the Arc and may have finished closer if he hadn’t.
He had rock solid form from the Derby onwards, so I see no reason for the disparity in prices other than maybe SOF needing the runThat stop-start affair in last year’s Coronation Cup baffled me – because I thought Maraahel would be a moral under the tempo and he was only battling away behind Scorpion.
I have never backed Youmzain – and it comes as little surprise that I have profited greatly because of this. No intentions to be swayed this time.
Tempo won’t be an issue to Getaway. I noticed he was a little frantic and anxious when the tempo slowed dramatically around the mile at Newmarket but he picks up like a rocket. I think the opposite would do him more harm – if the leaders freewheeled and turned the final 2 furlongs into a staying slogfest then Macarthur at 12/1 is possible.
Going is now good-to-soft and drying and I really think it needs to be sloppy to give Soldier Of Fortune a chance on seasonal debut.
Hi Cian . I have watched the Arc a hundred times and I believe that sof would have been second if not the winner had Murthagh not had to reign him in when Fallon cut directly in front of him as he was making his move.Fallon took him out of the race but Aidan was not about to object.So I fancy him in Friday.
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It’s very difficult to separate the top two in the market, as either of them could win and there’s no obvious reason to oppose one or the other. If forced, I’d stick with Getaway as he has already demonstrated his wellbeing this season and looks a typical German-bred improver. M Fabre has, of course, got an outstanding record in the race, too.
Still, I can’t resist a little each-way nibble on Multidimensional to sneak into the frame. I won’t deny that there’s an element of sentimentality to the bet- I’ve been a big Henry Cecil fan ever since I got into racing in 1980- but the Niarchos colt has always been held in high regard and has had valid excuses in his last three runs: short of room in the Champion Stakes; lack of pace/cover in the Earl Of Sefton and unsuited by Chester last time. It is admittedly a worry that he has failed to show his best form on twisting and undulating tracks (as well as that Chester flop, he was well beaten as a three-year-old at Goodwood), but he has always looked the type of horse to improve with time and the step up to a mile and a half should bring further improvement; the ground won’t inconvenience him either.
While it looks as though there’s only one place up for grabs, the 40-1 looks far too big to resist.
My ratings for this race are
Soldier of fortune 140
getaway 138
youmzain 136
red rocks 130
macarthur 126
papal bull 121
anna pavlova 116
turbo linn 114
multidimentional 112
song of hiawatha 103
big robert 95will back soldier of fortune to win
and youmzain each wayHi Cian . I have watched the Arc a hundred times and I believe that sof would have been second if not the winner had Murthagh not had to reign him in when Fallon cut directly in front of him as he was making his move.Fallon took him out of the race but Aidan was not about to object.So I fancy him in Friday.
How exactly would he have been second?! Would he have fitted into that nose between Dylan Thomas and Youmzain?!
Imo, Dylan Thomas hung across an already beaten SoF. The Niel was far from an ideal prep, and given (or found) an easier race this season, he could on a suitable surface take all the beating.
I give Macarthur a squeak of turning over the principals and make him a good bet at 16/1, especially if you can burgle 1/4 the first 3.
Didn’t do a lot wrong in the Irish 1,000! I’m hoping he’s told to be handy here and kick on early in the straight.
I keep looking at Macarthur too.
His recent race at Chester was done fairly impressively i think, but people saying it not being the strongest race, etc…
I quite like the look of him at 14/1 which seems to be available at the moment.
Didn’t do a lot wrong in the Irish 1,000! I’m hoping he’s told to be handy here and kick on early in the straight.
Fair point, just not sure is he reliable on a consistent basis in the top races, though, if he does as you say, it will simplify matters.
Youmzain is a crazy price, given that there’s likely to be a strong pace.
The market has this almost spot on, very difficult to find a value bet.
Glad to see the forum isnt getting carried away with Getaway just yet. If his Newmarket run is taken at face value he has improved massively since last year. The race today is normally won by a top notch 12f Group1 horse and he still has to prove that in my book. If he does it impressively today I’ll happily move over to the believer camp but at the price I’m happy to pass him over. i think the improving Fabre 5yo angle is possibly overfactored in the price.
Soldier of Fortune has just about the form to win today. I’d argue his run in the Neil was his best last year. However his best work has been around Longchamp and The Curragh, the timeoff has to be a concern and I never know where I am with first time out Ballydoyle horses. A drift out to 3/1 would be tempting but is unlikley.
Youmzain I have somewhere between Group 1 and top notch Group 2 standard. He has a decent chance of a place today but again his price is accurate imo. Red Rocks is better over 10f. Papal Bulls form through Laverock and Lucarno from last summer would give him place claims if you ignore his end of season efforts (I cant). The Ormonde form for Macarthur hasnt worked out at all and I have him as a good Group 2 horse no more than that. The rest on form wouldnt be good enough.
An interesting Group 1, pity I cant find a bet.
i like soldier of fortune, but youmzain is a super price for a horse with great form Dylan Thomas (the best horse fallon said he was ever on) only just beat him a couple of times so i think he is the VALUE
of the raceCavelino, let me give you a possible angle..
Youmzain beat both of these in the Arc, decisively and fairly. He is 7 times one of the their price, and 4 times another.
He clearly needs a very fast pace, and with this being a competitive Group 1, he may well get it. I also believe the ground conditions will be perfect for him.
Of course, the negative with Youmzain is he doesn’t always run to the same level, but if he runs to the level he ran to in the Arc, but with a better ride, he wins.
One should always Getaway when they can…..this is one of those times.
Looks like a penalty kick to me
Thanks Salselon. Taken at face value I’d tend to agree with you but for me his runs in the Sheema and the King George are a fairer reflection of his ability at this level. I’ve downgraded the Arc form.
I could be wrong of course, I frequently am.
Aren’t we all
Speaking of Arc form, why is Sagara trading at 4.1 for a listed race this evening at Goodwood? Very strange, as is the fact Frankie rides Al Shemali. Any ideas? His runs in the Niel and Arc would have him prominent for the Coronation Cup.
Funnily enough, also fancy another Godolphin second string, Alexandros.
of the race
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