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I am enjoying this thread. It certainly strikes a chord with me after backing John Gosden’s Space War last Wednesday at Newmarket at about 6/1 ten minutes before post time, and then seeing it double the price five minutes later. It obviously ran a stinker.
Are the high street firms getting involved here I wonder ? Hedging on the exchanges against the backdrop of their big over-rounds in the shops ? Arbing basically.
4 pages and you still don’t the the gist of the thread Ginger. The point is that 30 secs before the off your tissue isn’t really worth the paper it’s written on, and putting in orders at betfair sp for all those that are tradining higher than on your tissue I would imagine would result in you struggling to make it pay.
My impression is that you construct a tissue and you stick to it rigidly. Personally I can come up with a set of prices, stick it in at 10’s, but would be happier to back it at just before the off at 7’s than 14’s. To give you an example, Valdan at Chester last Friday night. He’s back to a mark that suggests he’s going to pop up sooner rather than later and there looked a good chance he’d get a pace to run at. The trouble is Valdan is a horse who seems to know usually what price he is. He duly proved strong in the market, got the race run to suit and it was only a pretty poor ride that prevented him from giving Oriental Cavalier a good run for his money. The point is, under the certain set of circumstances that unfolded, Valdan was probably a true 11/4 chance that day, which is what he was soon trading i/r when the race looked to be panning out to suit him and if the pre-race market is suggesting that today is ‘the day’, I’m convinced your better off taking the 6 or 7/1 than the 14’s when the market says it isn’t.
David,
I suggest you read my posts again. Have already said my tissue changes if I see something worth changing it for. Including a market move, if it comes from the right yard / owner to indicate this is significant. A market move either way from a G. L. Moore horse would be significant However, I would not just alter the price I am willing to take for ANY market move. There has to be a reason for that market move for me to back it.
Very few of my off course bets are late. Because as a form and value backer; I don’t believe it gives me as much edge. When I go racing my tissue can change dramatically, depending on what I see in the paddock, to post and / or in the market.
Value Is EverythingGinger, if your tissue is influenced by market moves, what’s the value in doing a tissue in the first place ? Isn’t the whole point of a tissue, the seperation from what’s happening on the wider market in the search for value. If you follow the market, aren’t you losing sight of this to an extent ?
This is what happens when insiders end up ruling the world on betting exchanges in relatively low-integrity sports like Horse Racing
We aren’t having this discussion about Man Utd being smashed up two minutes before kick off on a Saturday -and the reason is that Premiership football is almost 100% straight and recreational punters can bet their opinions on it with total confidence.
I remember Ian Davies suggesting many years ago that big winners should be restricted on betting exchanges (in the same way that bookies restrict them) in order that the exchange "ecosystem" is preserved and the sharks dont just take the recreational punters to the cleaners time and time again.
Almost everyone, to a man, suggested he was off his head. Maybe he wasn’t quite so stupid after all?
This is what happens when insiders end up ruling the world on betting exchanges in relatively low-integrity sports like Horse Racing
TDK, given your position, you must have a very good heads up on who wants to back what on any given day, to supplement your own form opinions? That doesn’t seem to be the case by your contributions to this thread. Just wondering…no problem if you don’t/cant reply to this one.
If there was one horse to sum this thread up today would Stefanki fit the bill? Any price you like on his 3rd run in a rank average Wolverhampton maiden.
If you are asking if I spend all day following in gambles (oh look, another one has just gone in at Lingfield – good ol’Arry), then the answer is no.
Any move from 4/1 in to 6/4 does not tell you the horse has a 40% chance of winning.
Over the long term on the exchanges it most definitely does have a 40% chance of winning, regardless of its form.
Which is the point that people are making on this thread, Ginger. Are you missing the point? Has this ever happened before?
It has been known in the past CR. But I think this time it is not the case.
Just because on
average
the exchange SP shows the 6/4 SP might be about right, does not mean each
individual
6/4 shot is a 40% chance. With big a market move, one backed from 4/1 in to 6/4, that 6/4 includes a lot of money from those who’ve backed it purely because it is a market mover and probably bookmaker’s big liabilities too. Without the "follow the money" punters and big bookie liabilities, the 6/4 would likely have been 7/4 or 2/1.
So a 6/4 shot that has been backed in from 4/1, is less likely to be a true 6/4 40% chance than one backed from 7/4
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Value Is EverythingAs fascinating a thread as this is,it just confirms every poster to be a conspiracy theorist when a run of results have gone the punters way! Long may it last but as one contributor pointed out wait till it rains,everything will go A*se over T*t as it does several times during a season,thats why we have "Lucky runs" and times you cant pick a winner for toffee,its called Horse racing!
If there was one horse to sum this thread up today would Stefanki fit the bill? Any price you like on his 3rd run in a rank average Wolverhampton maiden.
I’d agree with that. Even more so after the trainer told ATR viewers that he didn’t have a clue where the money was coming from for the horse
No form to shout home about; backed early doors from 6/1 to 2/1; backed again at the off into 6/4; wins like a horse with two stone in hand; but the trainer effectively says he didn’t instigate the gamble as he didn’t know where the money was coming from.
When it comes to tissues and market-making I really haven’t much of a clue so can someone please explain to me why it is that, when it comes to virtual horse racing with a supposedly random outcome, the bookmakers can offer a set of odds which remain completely fixed regardless of how much money is being bet on each cartoon horse? If everyone lumped on the favourite in the 2.15 at Lucksin Downs how come the bookie can afford to hold his ground yet if the same thing happened on real racing the odds would tumble? Why not apply the same criteria to all betting i.e. the first show is also the last show?
Sorry, maybe I’m having a senior moment.Good thread folks , personally I am glad that I gave Uk racing the heave ho since Jan this year , it seems the mickey mouse prize money levels have induced some fun and games on the betting front
Fair dues to Glen though , his lone voice against the present malaise has cheerfully gone unnoticed , and probably will for the forseable future
Sir I believe your Bat phone needs a new battery ……
Ricky
Just because on average the exchange SP shows the 6/4 SP might be about right, does not mean each individual 6/4 shot is a 40% chance.
Of course not (we need a banging head against the wall smiley badly on this forum). But the thrust of this thread is the increasing general trend of tissue 4/1 shots being backed into 6/4 and winning 40% of their races regardless of all known public form.
If there was one horse to sum this thread up today would Stefanki fit the bill? Any price you like on his 3rd run in a rank average Wolverhampton maiden.
Formerly trained by a flag of convenience for a warned off individual, running today in the colours of a flag of convenience of a warned off individual, ridden by a proven corrupt jockey whose rides got the horse handicapped and trained by a guy being investigated for running a flapper.
Pretty much sums up the current free for all.
If there was one horse to sum this thread up today would Stefanki fit the bill? Any price you like on his 3rd run in a rank average Wolverhampton maiden.
Formerly trained by a flag of convenience for a warned off individual, running today in the colours of a flag of convenience of a warned off individual, ridden by a proven corrupt jockey whose rides got the horse handicapped and trained by a guy being investigated for running a flapper.
Pretty much sums up the current free for all.
Err, hang on Glenn. The trainer said he knew nothing of the gamble.
Oh ok then, I’ll ignore the trainer
Ginger, if your tissue is influenced by market moves, what’s the value in doing a tissue in the first place ? Isn’t the whole point of a tissue, the seperation from what’s happening on the wider market in the search for value. If you follow the market, aren’t you losing sight of this to an extent ?
BSB,
My early bets are obviously not influenced.
However,
You do (imo) have to react to things, when I thought Don’t Push It had a 2% chance of winning the National, one of the main reasons being pulled up last time out (being out of form). With so much market confidence it would be wrong to keep my price at 50/1. Support indicates he’s back in form and I should re-evaluate his form. This has to be done as it also effects others prices negatively. Adding to one’s percentage chance means I have to reduce others. In practice, I rarely back those who’ve changed due to market support that are originally thought of as poor value. The amount I’d change a horse is probably not as much as David. However, I can easily back something that looks particularly well in the paddock. Even though I have something to learn about conformation.Value Is EverythingEven though I have something to learn about conformation.
That’s easy Ginge, I will learn you that now. Basically it’s the process of someone telling someone that something has been done.
As an example, when Harry asks Glen to put a bet on for him, and Glen rings back and says, "Harry, the bet is on". Well that’s conformation mate
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