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Those influential books from the early nineties – incidentally, a vintage period of horse racing/punting literature (Jamie Read, Simon Barnes, AP, MC, Paul Mathieu etc) – taught me something else which was useful at the time.
If you have a "value" price in your head, and you miss it, walk away.
That seems so logical and for years it worked for me. Not any more. Now the advice would be:
If you have a "value" price in your head, and you miss it, steam in with a double stake.
Certainly the case these days that I am more likely to top up on a shortener than a drifter.
I wouldn’t say that goes against the concept of "value" betting – more that what the late market is telling you these days is a
far
bigger factor in determining what a "value" price is than it was in the past.
This may seem contradictory,
Although as I said, there is often no reason for a drift. The other way is also true, a big market drift often has a reason. Sweating, green, edgy, bolts to post, round action on firm ground etc. So if I’ve backed something that’s drifted badly, I’d want to be there and see it on course to back it again.I don’t think the old agage of going in again is, neccesarily the way to go these days.
Certainly would not go in for a shortener, unless what I’ve seen in the paddock has changed my opinion of value.
Value Is EverythingThose influential books from the early nineties – incidentally, a vintage period of horse racing/punting literature (Jamie Read, Simon Barnes, AP, MC, Paul Mathieu etc) – taught me something else which was useful at the time.
If you have a "value" price in your head, and you miss it, walk away.
That seems so logical and for years it worked for me. Not any more. Now the advice would be:
If you have a "value" price in your head, and you miss it, steam in with a double stake.
Yur avin a larf, right?
Say in your opinion a horse has a 25% (fair 3/1) chance of winning. If you’ve missed the 9/2, why would you back it at 5/2 when a 25% strike rate at 5/2 results in a loss?
Value Is EverythingCertainly the case these days that I am more likely to top up on a shortener than a drifter.
I wouldn’t say that goes against the concept of "value" betting – more that what the late market is telling you these days is a
far
bigger factor in determining what a "value" price is than it was in the past.
TDK,
So how can you decipher what is a market move from the "right people", and what is money from mug punter(s) with more money than sense?Market moves don’t tell you what is and what is not value.
Each punter’s interpretation of the form book and what he / she sees in the psddock / to post tells you what value is.As always, some punters will be good at evaluating form book and paddock, some wil not.
Value Is EverythingGinger – you are correct that I wouldn’t know where the money has come from, but that is what this thread is all about – the reality than the late moves, the large amounts of money that are being shovelled on at seemingly "poor" value prices are consistently being shown to be bang on the mark.
If I make a horse a 10-1 shot and I took a bit of 20s with the bookies in the morning – I would sooner go in again near the off when if there were chunks asking to back it at say 12-1 than I would if it drifted out to 40s. I would even suspect that if there were significant chunks backing it down to 7 and 6 to 1 on the off, that that price was still good value – the point being that my initial assessment was based on only the limited information that was available to me. The people smashing it on the off have some other information available to them.
I would absolutely love to bet in a sport when I could go in big in the "drift to 40-1" scenario, but experience has taught me that it isn’t profitable to do so in the long run on UK racing.
Every single race (except maybe the opening maiden) at Beverley was won by a horse punted late.
Similar story at Yarmouth.
At Mussleburgh every winner wasn’t so much punted late as smashed off the boards late.
It’s been a similar story for several weeks now.
Whatever the reason for this, and I have my own theories, is there any point at all for non-masochists backing drifters or late appearing ‘value’ any more? Has the game finally gone?
Well they were all winning until you pointed it out Glenn
Late gambles so far today;
Hypnotic Gaze – 7/2 into 9/4. Didn’t place
Tri Nations – 7/1 into 9/2. Second
Soto – 5/1 into 5/2. Didn’t place
Shianda – 8/1 into 4/1. Didn’t placeThere’s a gamble almost every race. They’re just not winning today. Or is that because I’m backing them
Ginger – you are correct that I wouldn’t know where the money has come from, but that is what this thread is all about – the reality than the late moves, the large amounts of money that are being shovelled on at seemingly "poor" value prices are consistently being shown to be bang on the mark.
If I make a horse a 10-1 shot and I took a bit of 20s with the bookies in the morning – I would sooner go in again near the off when if there were chunks asking to back it at say 12-1 than I would if it drifted out to 40s
.
I would even suspect that if there were significant chunks backing it down to 7 and 6 to 1 on the off, that that price was still good value
– the point being that my initial assessment was based on only the limited information that was available to me. The people smashing it on the off have some other information available to them.
I can agree with the
bold type
,
not the rest
. But one of the reasons a positive market move is so short; is bookmakers allow for their liabilities in a gamble, so offering even shorter than what it should be. They also back it again on exchanges to lay off, bringing that price down too. So one at 7 or 6/1 that has been 20/1 is highly unlikely to still be value at 7 or 6/1.
Value Is EverythingThe story so far, as I’ve seen it:
2.10 – main move was the one against the fav (layers collect)
2.20 – well backed fav won
2.30 – well backed second fav won (Johnston fav luke warm at best late)
2.40 – didn’t see it
2.50 – main move against the original front two and for Soto/Cross of Lorraine. Apparently the rider of the fourth is a contender for the jockey’s championship and very hard to get past. You’d be hard pressed to believe that watching his display here!Market moves don’t tell you what is and what is not value.
I think the thrust of this thread GT is that it does.
i.e. I may have 9/2 as my value price but if there is late money and it goes from, say 4/1 to 6/4 then the accuracy of the market these days might suggest that you tear up your original concepts of ‘value’.
Traditionally you have form, fitness, ground, etc, to consider when coming up with a value price but the suggestion, I think, is that these days a horse’s market moves may be by far and away the most significant indicator to its chance of winning and, hence, its true value price.
In other words, its not what causes the market move (sweating, moving poorly, etc) it is the MARKET MOVE ITSELF that is the significant indicator.
Will my own methods change? Yes, to a certain extent. I’ve made most of my profits from backing horses at 5/1 or bigger. During my recent time away from betting, I’ve had plenty of time to consider some new strategies. In the future, I’m sure to be backing plenty of favourites as well, now that the terrific value is so readily available on the exchanges. A 5/4 favourite used to work out at 1.06-1 after 9% betting tax, whereas these days I’m more likely to be getting 1.46-1 with all these bold new exchange layers keen to give their money away. We’ll see what they’re made of.
Patrick Veitch, Enemy Number One – The Future
Surely with the exchanges increasing accessibility so greatly you could have any manner of punter taking a stand once the liquidity presents an entry point. We know for instance Findlay backs horses only at the last 5 minutes prior to the off and his bets are certainly enough to move a market, this doesn’t necessarily make him right all the time however it just means he can back up his opinion strongly.
I still think it’s important to have a price line and there are still many reasons for a horses price fluxuation. Many punters are misguided about how they use their price line anyway.
Market moves don’t tell you what is and what is not value.
I think the thrust of this thread GT is that it does.
i.e. I may have 9/2 as my value price but if there is late money and it goes from, say 4/1 to 6/4 then the accuracy of the market these days might suggest that you tear up your original concepts of ‘value’.
Traditionally you have form, fitness, ground, etc, to consider when coming up with a value price but the suggestion, I think, is that these days a horse’s market moves may be by far and away the most significant indicator to its chance of winning and, hence, its true value price.
In other words, its not what causes the market move (sweating, moving poorly, etc) it is the MARKET MOVE ITSELF that is the significant indicator.
If any of my value selections drift, it is possibly a bad omen. Possibly people who know more about the horse’s fitness / ability to handle the ground / distance etc. know more than me. Although those from unfashionable trainer and jockeys can go off at much bigger than their true chance.
A positive market move is a sign that I am right in my evaluation. But these are possibles.The market at the off can be an indication of their true chance, but it can alo be an over-reaction to market moves. Can all these market moves be used to form your own 100% book or value selection?
The only way that I can see of using this information is:
Before the market I have to evaluate the chance each horse has of running to form. I might or might not think a horse is likely to return to form. If a horse is thought able to return to form I might make it a 5/1 shot. If I believe it will not return to form I might make it a fair 7/1 shot. If there is no money or a lot of money for the horse I can use that information to alter my book accordingly.i.e.
Any move from 4/1 in to 6/4 does not tell you the horse has a 40% chance of winning.
It can tell you the out of form horse is thought likely to return to form. It is up to each punter to consider what price that probable return to form is worth taking.
Value Is EverythingAny move from 4/1 in to 6/4 does not tell you the horse has a 40% chance of winning.
Over the long term on the exchanges it most definitely does have a 40% chance of winning, regardless of its form.
Which is the point that people are making on this thread, Ginger. Are you missing the point? Has this ever happened before?
4 pages and you still don’t the the gist of the thread Ginger. The point is that 30 secs before the off your tissue isn’t really worth the paper it’s written on, and putting in orders at betfair sp for all those that are tradining higher than on your tissue I would imagine would result in you struggling to make it pay.
My impression is that you construct a tissue and you stick to it rigidly. Personally I can come up with a set of prices, stick it in at 10’s, but would be happier to back it at just before the off at 7’s than 14’s. To give you an example, Valdan at Chester last Friday night. He’s back to a mark that suggests he’s going to pop up sooner rather than later and there looked a good chance he’d get a pace to run at. The trouble is Valdan is a horse who seems to know usually what price he is. He duly proved strong in the market, got the race run to suit and it was only a pretty poor ride that prevented him from giving Oriental Cavalier a good run for his money. The point is, under the certain set of circumstances that unfolded, Valdan was probably a true 11/4 chance that day, which is what he was soon trading i/r when the race looked to be panning out to suit him and if the pre-race market is suggesting that today is ‘the day’, I’m convinced your better off taking the 6 or 7/1 than the 14’s when the market says it isn’t.
Is it possible that a market known to be weakly efficient hence exploitable by those with an ‘edge’ is moving inexorably towards unexplotable strong efficiency?
That is, assuming round books, there will be no winners and no losers – long term. The words ‘value’ ‘overlay’ and ‘underlay’ cease to have meaning
The amount of information available to the two sparring factions – punter and layer – has never been greater. Computer modelling; the now simple procedure of interrogating huge form databases to elicit stats and trends; exchange-driven transparency making it near impossible for those in possession of knowldege denied ‘the crowd’ to play their hand before the live-market kicks-off
The near non-existence of morning liquidity be that on exchange or due to the carbon-copy tissues of bookmakers unwilling now to take a view and lay out-of-step odds means the maturation of the market (and individual odds) towards ‘true chance’ is being almost wholly delayed until the live market provides sufficient liquidity for a meaningful (and correct) adjustment
So while there may well still be theoretical value kicking about on the early markets it is to all intents and purposes ‘for information only’ as no one can strike a worthwhile bet at those odds
Has the time-honoured fate of the favourites improved over the last year or so from an SR of circa 33% and 37% for Flat and NH respectively?
Has the level stake loss on these favs diminished from circa 8% to nearer break-even?
Whatever is actually happening to the market may be difficult to pinpoint accurately, but it’s a fact that my hitherto reliable value-orientated tissues produced a net loss last calendar year.
Down to ‘me’ or down to ‘them’? Who knows but it was certainly a sobering shock.
One that persuaded me to take some extended time out, so haven’t been punting much at all this year (net loss) which judged on this thread is quite probably a wise decision.
Have others’ bottom lines suffered in what appears to be an unwelcome new punting world?
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