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Every single race (except maybe the opening maiden) at Beverley was won by a horse punted late.
Similar story at Yarmouth.
At Mussleburgh every winner wasn’t so much punted late as smashed off the boards late.
It’s been a similar story for several weeks now.
Whatever the reason for this, and I have my own theories, is there any point at all for non-masochists backing drifters or late appearing ‘value’ any more? Has the game finally gone?
This has been going on since October last year – there have been umpteen posts on the matter.
As far as I can see, the "value" punter is pure archeology. It’s possible the form reader is on the endangered list too.
What do you put it down to, Glenn?
Yes, it’s been bad since October, but it seems to have accelerated recently.
I can’t really go into my theories on a public forum. Suffice it to say that the late money these days seems to be more than the sum of the parts of one mob fancying theirs and another mob not fancying theirs. It seems to take an amalgamated view on the race.
A week of rain and you wont be able find a winning favourite with a magnifying glass.
Several of the horses in each race are running on ground that’s unsuitable for their mechanical predisposition. The consistently dry weather has enabled the form of the runners of the race to be narrowed considerably.Its easy to see why some individuals will be disgruntled at perceived inside knowledge, in many races I suspect that its thanks to the efforts of those in charge to eradicate the shinanigans within the game thus more races are straighter than ever, run true to form and are therefore easier to predict for some.
We, as punters, should be dancing in the streets.
Yes, it’s been bad since October, but it seems to have accelerated recently.
I can’t really go into my theories on a public forum. Suffice it to say that the late money these days seems to be more than the sum of the parts of one mob fancying theirs and another mob not fancying theirs. It seems to take an amalgamated view on the race.
I agree with your observations.
What I think we are seeing now is the "end-game" of what happens to the betting market when you allow insiders to lay horses over a number of years.
My theory is there are people with marked decks that have profited heavily from knowing when horses are not fancied over the years. These guys are big players now and this "negative" information is being significantly punted late on when the liquidity arrives on the exchanges – forming massive drifts on some horses, while the others shorten by default (as the circa 100% overround makes the market a zero-sum game – if one is heavily laid, the others shorten by default)
It is obviously more complicated that this – and there are still horses that are genuinely "punted" when well fancied, but the ability to lay as much as you like is the thing that has changed from the "old world" – and this is why the market has changed so much in my opinion,
One other observation is that the market recently seems to have developed an uncanny knack of predicting an "unpredictable" pace bias. I.e – horse gets smashed near the off then gets an easy lead, despite there being a few other theoretical pace influences in the race….
Without mentioning any specific names (
please don’t anyone
) I couldn’t see any other way for the scenario suggested by Glenn to operate without significant collusion from jockeys and, to a lesser extent perhaps, trainers.
Are we suggesting there is an ‘amalgamated’ approach by jockeys and/or trainers which predetermines the result of races?
Would it really be possible to manage something like that, given human nature. Wouldn’t someone from within speak out eventually, some chap or chapess with some reason for squealing? Or would they be too afraid?
Is it as dark a scenario as that in your view Glenn?
(btw – I note on another thread that APRacing says he doesn’t bet on the flat anymore)
The sheer plurality of this phenomenon has basically led me to conclude that collusion amongst racing insiders is, for the most part, an unlikely explanation Corm.
You’ll have one race in, say, Scotland perfectly read by the late market and then ten minutes later the same thing will happen with a completely different set of connections on the South coast. They can’t all be meeting up in a smoke-filled room every morning.
I agree Glenn. How could a networkork be set-up to attempt this ? You would need at least a handfull of people with communications, together with mobile internet connections. It’s just not possible and hardly worth the rewards gained.
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
totally agree with all, as I bet on most races daily, home and away, my son and I have been scratching heads recently, late market moves on exchanges (last 2 minutes) see horses price dramatically collapse before winning,
these are horses that have been trading for hours at a steady price, then just before off 3/1 into 5/4. 7/2 into 7/4, WHY? is it lack of liquidity? or collusion ?
I am challenged by conundrums.
I think TDK’s by default analysis
has a lot of merit. The consistent ground factor is
not the reason but possibly the why these
heavily punted gambles
are being pulled of in unusual numbers.
Liquidity is also poorer these days
as quite a few layers
have been prematurely buried.Above are the rational theories.
This could be the work of one man
…and then of course there is an even darker scenario
than even Cormack highlighted in bold, but I, like
Glenn, will keep my windmills safely
pointed away from the state of Denmark
and towards Madrid where there is still
evidence of street dancers safely going crazy.The batphone should be back in operation
shortlyThe reason why more horses are winning when (seemingly) backed very late; is that bookmakers are shortening the market up late on.
For every horse being backed late on, there should be another on the drift. So as the over-round remains the same. Yet these days half the field seem to shorten significantly late, without the others going the other way.
With far more horses shortening late than there used to be, it’s making it look as if the "market knows". A lot of these are NOT true market moves.
Obviously any prolonged spell of weather also means form works out more often, favouring favourites.
Some horses do not act on firm ground and some love it. Some influential on-course punters watching them go to post, see who’s moving well (or not so well) and bet late.
Value Is Everythingginger, its not bookies leading the price reduction, most of them are following exchange moves, 3.7 into 2.4 on-course bookies just re-act.
most of em anyway.
ginger, its not bookies leading the price reduction, most of them are following exchange moves, 3.7 into 2.4 on-course bookies just re-act.
most of em anyway.
If that were the case then the exchange market would show the same; with over-round greater at SP than 5 minutes before the off.
Does it? I don’t think so Barry.
If bookmakers are only reacting to exchanges, then why doesn’t the exchange market show a bigger over-round just before the off than 5 mins earlier?
To give Barry and his pals some credit, it does seem worse at Northern venues.
Value Is EverythingGinge, I think bookies ‘shortening’ horses up is true, but it’s not what Glenn (who started the thread) is on about.
He is specifically talking about gambles. A horse being clipped from 10s to 9s at the off is indeed a horse just shortening up, and as you say, this happens quite regularly. But when a horse goes from 4/1 to 9/4, or 25s into 6s, then believe me that’s a gamble.
As far as I can see, the "value" punter is pure archeology. It’s possible the form reader is on the endangered list too.
Not so.
For the reasons above (prices shortening late) I do think "value punters" are best taking "early prices" from bookmakers or night before / morning exchange prices.
I know exchanges are working to a bigger over-round at that time. However, I do find more "ricks" late the night before or early morning. Often exchange layers at that time are only taking their judgement from racingpost or sportinglife website betting guides; which are only one person’s opinion against yours.
No matter when a punter takes the price, you have to get on before the horse’s prce shortens. By "following the money" a punter will (on most occasions) be taking a price that does not represent it’s true chance.
Value Is EverythingGinge, what you’re referring to is as much a product of SP returning mechanism as anything else and is a separate issue to the one that Glenn raises and which Barry’s experience confirms.
The exchange market will always operate close to 100% on either side of the spread when volume is strong.
The phenomenon being discussed is the equivalent sometimes of say, Germany going from evens to 3/1, whilst Uruguay go from 3/1 to evens in the three horse race of a football market. The overround will remain exactly the same, the draw price won’t necessarily alter much but there is a big swing around a couple of key runners in the market, one positive one negative.
There was a race the other day that was essentially 11/10 each of two the front 2 in the market all the way up to a few minutes before the off at which point one of the pair slid rapidly and didn’t stop till it was nudging 5/2. The other favourite shortened to odds-on and the third fav came in from double figures to 5/1ish. The overround on the exchange doesn’t change but there is a huge pivot in prices around one or two key horses; either positive or negative. That’s what these guys are talking about here.
What it may be pointing to is very big volume players shaping the market with their activity when volume reaches maximum (a couple of minutes out onwards). The question is are they just good judges playing big or is their deck marked. If you know of two horses in the front half a dozen in the betting who won’t be winning you can win a handsome return on your layout race after race by effectively dutch backing the field, and/or dutch laying the non jiggers and of course you will be playing both sides of the spread and filling up as much as you can against whatever liquidity is prevailing against you until the market slides to the point that you’ve got all you can at your correct odds.
Some of theses moves are literally the equivalent of Germany flip flopping with Uruguay, or Spain with Holland in a football match. Obviously liquidity is much greater in high profile individual football matches but imagine the stink if you saw such a swing in a run of the mill domestic league football match for similar liquidity to that which we see on most horse races?
Given that such moves happen generally when the horses have left the ring, indeed when they’re at the post, there’s a case for saying such swings can only be informed by information not available from either the form book or from human observation of the animals.
That’s the gist of it I thinkGinge, I think bookies ‘shortening’ horses up is true, but it’s not what Glenn (who started the thread) is on about.
He is specifically talking about gambles. A horse being clipped from 10s to 9s at the off is indeed a horse just shortening up, and as you say, this happens quite regularly. But when a horse goes from 4/1 to 9/4, or 25s into 6s, then believe me that’s a gamble.
That is what I am talking about too OE.
When there are far more late moves from 10’s to 9’s at the off; it stands to reason there are more 4/1 to 9/4 market moves too.
Another reason for these big moves is so little money on course these days. At minor meetings, just one or two big bets result in a large percentage of on-course money for that horse. So one, two or even three horses can shorten massively.
Value Is Everything
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