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I wonder just how bullish those in the Dream Ahead ( v Frankel ) camp would be were he to line-up against the Henry Cecil racing machine at Newmarket : would you bet the Middle Park winner with confidence ?
I know which one I’d bet with extreme confidence.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
If Frankel and Dream Ahead lined up now for a good going Guineas, I’d rate Frankel’s chance as double Dream Ahead’s. So I wouldn’t be anywhere near
"confident"
of the latter’s chance. But Frankel is 2/1 and I got 8/1 Dream Ahead immediately after the race. At 2/1 Frankel needs to have better than 33% chance of winning to be a good bet. At 8/1 Dream Ahead needed to be better than 11%.
33% up against 11%. Frakel (imo) does not have three times the chance.
Although am thinking of a saver on Frankel, as I believe the two combined probably stand a 50% chance of winning it (better than 44%).Value Is Everything
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How can you back Frankel now? Hhat doesn’t make sense or at least it wouldn’t to a real value punter.
If you want an equal profit no matter which wins in affect your backing them at 3/5 That’s ok if the race were today but 10 months before the event at poxy odds like that?
You got along way to go before you turn pro Ginge
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To all those dreaming about Frankel winning next years 2000gns,
Dream Ahead
! This fellow has everything you want to see in a 3yo that Frankel lacks! 2/1 Frankel, 6/1 Dream Ahead,i know which one i would be on!
Frankel lacks? Like what?
Stamina? Speed? Class?
Has Dream Ahead got a girlfriend or something?
Stop writing shyte Gord willya ?
One worry about them both for 2011 is that they are bigger and stronger than their peers. Once the others catch up over the winter things might be different.
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Has to be a worry. My concern with Dream Ahead as he did him imperssion of a drunk again. I wasn’t expecting that as you would think he would have learned from his previous runs.
Doesn’t matter when you win by 10 lengths but you wouldn’t want a repeat of that in the Guineas. Shortest distance between 2 lines and all that.
I’d love to have another look at all 3 but it seems highly unlikely so there going to be an awful lot of debate and guessing betwen now and then.
To all those dreaming about Frankel winning next years 2000gns,
Dream Ahead
! This fellow has everything you want to see in a 3yo that Frankel lacks! 2/1 Frankel, 6/1 Dream Ahead,i know which one i would be on!
Frankel lacks? Like what?
Stamina? Speed? Class?
Has Dream Ahead got a girlfriend or something?
Stop writing shyte Gord willya ?
From a 2yo perspective in a Dewhurst 1/2 Frankel, 6/4 Dream ahead and Frankel would beat him over Newmarkets 7f on Good ground! On Soft ground 10/11 Dream ahead, 11/10 Frankel and Dream Ahead will win! Next year however Frankel wont have improved an ounce he is a wonderhorse 2yo who wont achieve the lofty heights some on here have fallen for,in fact i am surprised at some of the better judges on here havng fallen like lemmings off a cliff for him! 2/1 for the 2000gns is way too short from an Ante-Post point of view! Anyone who has taken double figure prices about him i wish you all the luck in the world as you have obviously used Foresight and you deserve to be rewarded! Personally, so long as the ground is good at Newmarket i can see Dream Ahead improving past Frankel over the winter months and winning the 2011 2000gns! Time will tell! The Shyte i write makes money Fist!
I dont think there has been a thread on here where so many have fallen head over heels about a horse who"s career is so obviously biased to being a super 2yo! No Scope,No stamina,Not a prayer of winning the Derby at 7/2! A Bookies Dream horse for dreamers,Dream Ahead
! He unfortunately will be with Godolphin before long too! David Simcock is more than capable of training him but Money talks in this game! Fist knows if Shyte was money he would be rolling like a Pig in it again and again and again!
How can you back Frankel now? Hhat doesn’t make sense or at least it wouldn’t to a real value punter.
If you want an equal profit no matter which wins in affect your backing them at 3/5 That’s ok if the race were today but 10 months before the event at poxy odds like that?
You got along way to go before you turn pro Ginge
If you want to know what backing them to win the same amount would be: 9/4 in fair odds terms is equal to 30.77% and 8/1 is 11.11%, therefore:
You are NOT backing them at
3/5
Fist. It’s odds against, just above
11/8
.
30.77 points @ 9/4 returns 100 points
11.11 points @ 8/1 returns 99.99 points41.88 points staked 58.12 or 58.11 points profit.
Not that I was suggesting backing them both to win the same amount. I said a
"saver"
on Frankel.
Suggest you get back in your box, accusing other people of "not making sense", when you’re the one who’s….
I am more a "pro" than you’ll ever be Fist.
Value Is EverythingOne worry about them both for 2011 is that they are bigger and stronger than their peers. Once the others catch up over the winter things might be different.
Neither are the finished article yet.
Both are sizeable sorts with plenty of filling out to do. In fact, I’d say they are likely to show better than average improvement. If anything they’re likely to show more improvement than most of their rivals.Of course some smaller 2 year olds will show abnormal improvement, but many don’t even train on.
I believe bigger animals are on the whole likely to improve far more than smaller 2 year olds.Frankel and Dream Ahead’s size are in my opinion a plus, not a minus.
Value Is EverythingFrankel and DA may well improve but I’d be thoroughly amazed if they dominate their rivals at three the way they have at two.
Pleasantly amazed mind you.
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What do you make of the winning distances Friday, wouldn’t call dream ahead a super star based on that 9 length win, decent horse though but no frankel
RPR rates Dream Ahead’s perfromance the best of a two year old since Arazi – ergo better than Frankel’s in the Royal Lodge.
I had a quick look at a couple of collateral form lines earlier, and using Klammer’s run in the Coventry, 6 lenghts behind Strong Suit, and his 10 lenght defeat to Frankely, that puts Dream Ahead about 5 lengths ahead of Frankel.
Very basic arithmetic I know, and unscientific from a ratings point of view, but it would appear that just when Frankel seemed only to have turn up at Newmarket in May to bag a Guineas, along comes not only a serious rival but one who on the face of it currently seems considerably superior.
I know that using Strong Suits Coventry form of 4 months ago is iffy as he may have regressed, but the relative form between Slim Shadey, Galtymore Lad and Klammer seems to suggest the Coventry Stakes form of the latter two is being upheld.
It would be great if Dream Ahead sportingly runs in the Dewhurst – and wins it, as it would apart from anything else be a reminder to the RFC morons that they have prevented a horse winning the Middle Park and Dewhurst ever again.
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How can you back Frankel now? Hhat doesn’t make sense or at least it wouldn’t to a real value punter.
If you want an equal profit no matter which wins in affect your backing them at 3/5 That’s ok if the race were today but 10 months before the event at poxy odds like that?
You got along way to go before you turn pro Ginge
If you want to know what backing them to win the same amount would be: 9/4 in fair odds terms is equal to 30.77% and 8/1 is 11.11%, therefore:
You are NOT backing them at
3/5
Fist. It’s odds against, just above
11/8
.
30.77 points @ 9/4 returns 100 points
11.11 points @ 8/1 returns 99.99 points41.88 points staked 58.12 or 58.11 points profit.
Not that I was suggesting backing them both to win the same amount. I said a
"saver"
on Frankel.
Suggest you get back in your box, accusing other people of "not making sense", when you’re the one who’s….
I am more a "pro" than you’ll ever be Fist.
You also say Workforce has beaten two Gr1 horses that he clearly has not. From now on I think the best way anyone could approach you is not at all TAPK. Ignoring you will be bliss. Anyone second the motion?
Ignoring me wont help you learn how to pick winners Chizzy! Watch and learn and maybe you too could be a King when you grow up! You are way down the pecking order at the moment mind!
TAPK
Why you think Dream Ahead will win guineas.This horse needs cut in the ground.Look at friday race and he was only horse who loved it so much.STRONG SUIT.Should not be writen off 2yos of Hannon dont sparkle this time of year but he bounce back next year in early part of season and progress past him on fast ground at Newmarket.Also i think NATIVE KHAN can win dewhurst people will call me mad i know but he is top class horse and fast ground at Newmarket he will run a big race
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Also i think NATIVE KHAN can win dewhurst people will call me mad i know but he is top class horse and fast ground at Newmarket he will run a big race
Native Khan’s Solario form is awful.
TAPK
Why you think Dream Ahead will win guineas.This horse needs cut in the ground.Look at friday race and he was only horse who loved it so much.STRONG SUIT.Should not be writen off 2yos of Hannon dont sparkle this time of year but he bounce back next year in early part of season and progress past him on fast ground at Newmarket.Also i think NATIVE KHAN can win dewhurst people will call me mad i know but he is top class horse and fast ground at Newmarket he will run a big race
darren, believe it or not but i have not invested a penny on anything for next years 2000gns,I was at Nottingham to see
Dream aheads
debut,the trainer couldn"t have found an easier maiden,he was 66/1 for the guineas after that!! What i would say is his sire
Diktat
won the Group 1 Sprint Cup on fast ground at Haydock and his Grandsire
Cadeaux Genereux
won the Group 1 Nunthorpe on fast ground too! His Dam
Land of Dreams
handled any ground but preferred a bit of cut! Dream Ahead doesn"t need Soft ground and so long as its not firm he will handle good ground no problem! I wouldn"t rule out
Strong Suit
from the 2000gns as he will love fast ground and will be a proper miler so take the 20/1 if you fancy him,the prices have gone on the front 2 for sure!
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