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I know we already have a thread about horses people most want to see but what I’m interested in is horses people are looking to follow from a betting perspective.
What horses are currently in your notebook to look out for in the coming weeks?
Looking for two of Stoutes horses I have been told to watch out for this year.
1. Desert Creek
2. Leocorno.
Also looking forwards to seeing Remember Ramon on Turf this summer & stealing a few from the frontI don’t "follow" horses, everything depends on the price. But there are some I am watching out for.
Cityscape
: Saw him win a Salisbury minor event with any amount in hand. Then started favourite for the Royal Lodge, possibly making a move too early. Beaten by the held up Jukebox Jury who subsequantly ran 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy. Cityscape was one of the best looking Two year olds I saw all season. Backed him at big prices for the 2000 Guineas. Trainer seems to be in better early season form than usual.
Evasive
: Also backed this one for the 2000. Saw him win the Horris Hill much easier than the winning margin; heavily eased after making all. that was on very soft going but won his maiden on a firm surface.
Faldal
: Saw her at Lambourn, good looking filly who is well thought of by the excellant Tom Dascombe stable. Could be pattern class. Won a maiden over a mile at Great Leighs in December but likely to prove better at middle distances.
Faraway Flower
: Another filly I saw in lambourn at Barry Hills. With the frame to make a much better three year old. From the family of Xaar, ran 6th behind Fantasia in the Prestige. Goodwood may not have suited her. Stable seem to have high hopes for her and is entered in the Nell Gwyn.
Finjaan
: Showed lots of speed in the Molecombe at Goodwood. Unlucky (don’t I know it) in the Middle Park, not getting a run. Then excellant 3rd in a substandard Dewhurst. Am convinced he’s a sprinter and could step up on what he did at Newmarket. Will get his chance to stay in a Guineas trial first.
Kefalonia
: Was second at Kempton on his debut last month. Running green and only beaten half a length by odds-on Haakima. Saw him at Lambourn and is a giant; should improve with racing. Too early to say whether that is by handicaps or something better.
On Our Way
: Saw him at Salisbury, could not miss him, the biggest two year old I saw all year. Went on to be 3rd to Jukebox Jury and Cityscape in the Royal Lodge, also went for home too early. Went on to win Sommerville Tattersalls. If Henry (Cecil) can get him to settle, has the size to improve a good deal this term.
Ouster
: From the family of Miesque. Like On Our Way can take a tug. Could be the type David Elsworth wins a good race at a good price with. Did not look the finished article at two and can improve again. Won maiden at salisbury when well backed.
Taameer
: Won debut at Newbury (not a maiden). Then second to Kite Wood at Ascot in Autumn Stakes (looked a good race). Stable not known for two year old first time out winners and may do better.
Uncle Keef
: Saw this unraced three year old at Lambourn. Looked a nice type physically from what I could see. From the best "nick" in the stud book. By Saddlers Wells out of a Darshaan mare. Thought I recognised the name of dam Love For Ever. Uncle Keef is a full brother to Gypsy King, the Ill-fated 5th when second favourite for Motivator’s Derby.
Your Old Pal
: Was the most impressive debut scorer I saw last year. 33/1 six length winner of Newbury maiden. It was on heavy ground but even so, looked full of potential. Jeremy Noseda should have a nice colt to work with. Entered up this week.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI would like to nominate Palace Moon. I was there when it won at Doncaster, in what looked a competitive handicap and it routed the field, winning easily by 5L. Looks sure to be a very nice horse this year, and is from a very good family, being related to the likes of Sakhee’s Secret. I was stood close to the Winners’ Enclosure when the horse came back in, and heard Steve Drowne telling the lad who was there (presumably Hughie Morrison’s Travelling Head Lad or something) that this horse will be a serious horse.
I would like to nominate Palace Moon. I was there when it won at Doncaster, in what looked a competitive handicap and it routed the field, winning easily by 5L. Looks sure to be a very nice horse this year, and is from a very good family, being related to the likes of Sakhee’s Secret. I was stood close to the Winners’ Enclosure when the horse came back in, and heard Steve Drowne telling the lad who was there (presumably Hughie Morrison’s Travelling Head Lad or something) that this horse will be a serious horse.
Saw him twice at Salisbury, cabbage like on debut before winning after a break. Did look a bit quirky and it is possible being gelded has improved him.
Good pick Simon and Welcome.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI wasn’t betting last season, so I wasn’t following things too closely.
You’ve reminded me that I saw a chaser at I think Newbury a few weeks ago that I thought was quite impressive – I’ll have to go and see if I can work out which one it was.
Geraldine Rees quite often has a big-priced winner,
5 year record: 211 runs, 18 wins, +£114.00
so I thought I’d have a look at her string. The only one that appeals is
Final Dynasty
. 5yo mare, only had one run last year. Now on a rating of 84, but has won off 87. If the horse hasn’t retired to the paddocks, and if Rees can get her fit, she should be able to get two wins out of it.
The grey Glass Harmonium may not be Stoute’s main guineas hope but he is a cracking horse. The Craven might be a bit beyond him but he will win his fair share of races.
I’m with you on Leocorno she has supposed to have done exceptionally well and I already had a bet on her for the Oaks.
I know we already have a thread about horses people most want to see but what I’m interested in is horses people are looking to follow from a betting perspective.
What horses are currently in your notebook to look out for in the coming weeks?
I could name a fair few decent horses, but IMO it is very unwise to have a bet planned well in advance of the race (obviously anteposting is acceptable if you cn get a decent enough price), so from a betting perspective, other than anteposters I have very little planned to follow.
What I find happens when you have ones that you are really keen to get a bet on, is that when they actually run, you are more likely to take what isnt a decent price due to excessive confidence from anticipation of a run.
Plus, this early in the flat sometimes there are horses who are put out over the wrong trip and on wrong ground so it is always just worth assessing each days cards on their own merits. Trainers seem keen to start their horses over what they must believe to be a horses minimum trip, in order to guage how much speed they have, and probably to build on that speed for when they are stepped up in trip. Likewise with suspect sprinters, many trainers will start their 3yo season over 7f and 1mile to try to guage if they have enough stamina to be competetive. From a betting perspective this can be costly, and needs to be assessed on the day in question IMO.
At the same time I think Montaff could go well in a derby trial and should start at a dcent price. Bulwark should go well in the chester cup also. However at the same time I would only back either if I was happy with the price available on the day, and if they had conditions in their favour. For example if Montaff made his seasonal debut over 1 mile on gd-fm I wouldnt even look at him.
The grey Glass Harmonium may not be Stoute’s main guineas hope but he is a cracking horse.
Wouldn’t be surprised if that went down more of the St. Leger route. A nice horse, for sure.
I’ve heard and read some good vibes about Native Ruler of Cecil’s. A very well bred animal, whose mother won an Oaks and he’s full brother to Sixties Icon. Makes his debut on Wednesday.
Also, that horse of Noseda’s (owned by Paul Roy) that won at Kempton yesterday looks a bit of a tool. Forgotten Voice it’s called. Another one to follow.
Thanks for the welcome, Mark!
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Tuffers,
Here’s a book a sent out in February I hope you enjoy
The grey Glass Harmonium may not be Stoute’s main guineas hope but he is a cracking horse. The Craven might be a bit beyond him but he will win his fair share of races.
I’m with you on Leocorno she has supposed to have done exceptionally well and I already had a bet on her for the Oaks.
Leocorno has wintered very well, put on weight & looks more like a colt.
Im excited to see her run.Tuffers,
Here’s a book a sent out in February I hope you enjoy
Top effort, that. Thanks to the other contributors so far as well.
I’m afraid I don’t have much of a list myself as I tend to only follow the horses from the Mark Brisbourne stable. Unfortunately, for the purposes of this thread, Mark’s inmates mostly tend to come under the ‘exposed handicapper’ heading.
Mark told us before his run in the week that
Barbirolli
was working better than his handicap mark and he just got up after a good ride from the promising Paul Pickard. If he gets a strongly run race he could follow up. Incidentally, the previous owners of Barbirolli fell victim to the credit crunch and Mark is currently the owner as well as trainer. Anyone looking for a fun horse could do a lot worse as he should pay his way this year.
Although I hesitate to do this as it’s tempting fate to a certain extent, the other horse in Mark’s stable worth a mention is our very own
Feet of Fury
. She went into more notebooks than Wayne Rooney after her seasonal debut at Doncaster so it would probably be disingenuous of me not to give her a mention.
She’s learning all the time at the moment and it was our instructions to John Egan at Doncaster (to give her some experience of racing in amongst horses as she’d raced wide of the other runners on both her other starts) that probably caused her to meet so much trouble in running during the race.
That caused Timeform to suggest that she had ‘a deal’ more ability than she has shown to date but I wouldn’t want to get too carried away at this stage as several of her opponents (including the winner) were sporting the sort of bellies you would normally see on a Thelwell pony. Her apparent fast finish might just be down to running on past tiring horses.
That said, we are full of hope for the season and the plan is to start her in a 3yo fillies only handicap over 7f (race calendar experts will be aware that there is only one such contest in April) so all being well we will travel to Lingfield on the 28th.
I know we already have a thread about horses people most want to see but what I’m interested in is horses people are looking to follow from a betting perspective.
What horses are currently in your notebook to look out for in the coming weeks?
I could name a fair few decent horses, but IMO it is very unwise to have a bet planned well in advance of the race (obviously anteposting is acceptable if you cn get a decent enough price), so from a betting perspective, other than anteposters I have very little planned to follow.
What I find happens when you have ones that you are really keen to get a bet on, is that when they actually run, you are more likely to take what isnt a decent price due to excessive confidence from anticipation of a run.
Plus, this early in the flat sometimes there are horses who are put out over the wrong trip and on wrong ground so it is always just worth assessing each days cards on their own merits. Trainers seem keen to start their horses over what they must believe to be a horses minimum trip, in order to guage how much speed they have, and probably to build on that speed for when they are stepped up in trip. Likewise with suspect sprinters, many trainers will start their 3yo season over 7f and 1mile to try to guage if they have enough stamina to be competetive. From a betting perspective this can be costly, and needs to be assessed on the day in question IMO.
At the same time I think Montaff could go well in a derby trial and should start at a dcent price. Bulwark should go well in the chester cup also. However at the same time I would only back either if I was happy with the price available on the day, and if they had conditions in their favour. For example if Montaff made his seasonal debut over 1 mile on gd-fm I wouldnt even look at him.
Agree with almost all of what you say Bulwark. Of course you have to take each race individually to find the value bet. But part of getting value is finding horses that may be better than they have so far shown. That said, if I think any of my list above are poor value in a race nothing would stop me backing against them.
Distance is obviously important and should be taken in to account.You are right though Bulwark, to point out every bet should be a value bet.
Where you are (imo) wrong Bulwark, is to think Bulwark will be a betting proposition in the Chester Cup. Think you have a blinkered view of your namesake, Bulwark is a dog and only complys to run a good race rarely. There will be plenty of Chester yocals thinking he can do it again and will probably be a shorter price than form / temperament suggest he should be.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWhere you are (imo) wrong Bulwark, is to think Bulwark will be a betting proposition in the Chester Cup. Think you have a blinkered view of your namesake, Bulwark is a dog and only complys to run a good race rarely. There will be plenty of Chester yocals thinking he can do it again and will probably be a shorter price than form / temperament suggest he should be.
We shall know in a few weeks Ginge, he has only ran in the race twice and has ran a cracker both times, i obviously dont agree that he is a dog, he is just dependant on a fast pace, should be fired up for once again, and provided they go a decent clip he should be a decent e/w chance. All depends on price though, but luckily the horse is very unpopular and many saw his win last year as a big shock, and wont even consider him this year so I think he should be a decent price once again. 20s or better and I’ll be happy.
Bulwark is 8 lbs higher than when winning the Chester Cup.
What is weird is that he is 2 lbs higher than when coming 29 out of 32 in the Cesarewitch last time out.
They ain’t started putting horses up on the Flat for their performances over hurdles have they?
edit: Have just worked it out. He went up 2 lbs for being beaten 10 lengths in the Doncaster Cup.
Tend not to focus too far ahead as in my experience half the horses I note for the future end up never appearing again or get flogged to Godolphin (an organisation I fondly refer to as the Bermuda Triangle of the Equine world)!
Although its always nice to see the old stayers and sprinters back in action.
Ah, at last a kindred spirit, rather than all those obsessed by Group 1s.
On the Godolphin front, Skanky Biscuit was announced within the last day or so as being absent for a few months. A pity, because I wanted him to test the theory that horses with bad names never win the Derby, though it didn’t stop Benny The Dip.
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