- This topic has 292 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
This is what really ticks me off about Ante post betting. Ive backed Coronet for the Oaks and now looks like she is missing it for the Prix Saint Alary which is being run on 14th May. Now all the early prices on the other contender are gone. Might have another look at Promise to be true in that case.
Thanks for that news Steve. Laid off my Coronet Oaks bet @ 14.0 for a free bet. Prix Alary is a Group 1 race also so not really a Trial.
It’s not impossible for Coronet to run in both races but it would be highly unusual, particularly when Gosden has indicated that Shutter Speed is his perceived best filly.
I do recall Intrepidity winning the Oaks after landing the Alary only 13 days earlier but that was back in 1993 and is the only one I recall doing that particular double. My mate and I had backed Intrepidity that year and did a forecast with the other French filly Wemyss Bight, also trained by Andre Fabre, but she could only finish fifth.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I love this race and will likely be going to Epsom for it again like last year.
I was on last years second Architecture at the fancy prices but had lots of it to win as I hadn’t expected Minding to go there. Oh well.
This year, I have to say the two Gosden fillies look very very classy.
Boylesports go top price on both and I’m prepared to go in on both.
Shutter Speed – 8/1
Gracious Diana – 33/1Absolutely ridiculous price on the latter of the two
With Permain and Cunco boosting the form of the Zetland, surely Coronet should be given a crack at the Oaks. I know she is running in the Prix Saint Alary but the Oaks is 20 days after that, if she runs well in that Group 1, lets see what happens after that.
I love this race and will likely be going to Epsom for it again like last year.
I was on last years second Architecture at the fancy prices but had lots of it to win as I hadn’t expected Minding to go there. Oh well.
This year, I have to say the two Gosden fillies look very very classy.
Boylesports go top price on both and I’m prepared to go in on both.
Shutter Speed – 8/1
Gracious Diana – 33/1Absolutely ridiculous price on the latter of the two
Gosden has said Gracious Diana is a Ribblesdale filly. I don’t think she will run in the Oaks.
The trainer said that Shutter Speed has always looked their best middle distance filly.
I have watched Shutter Speed again and she won easily despite pulling far too hard early last time.
Maybe I will be wrong but Shutter Speed has eerie echoes of Taghrooda in terms of her career thus far. Narrow win at 2yo on softer ground, then a big leap forward on better ground at 3yo. Their ratings after two starts are pretty much identical.
Shutter Speed goes Musidora next and then Oaks. I think she may just piss this Oaks in due course. She should be 5/1 Fav in my opinion. I certainly would not offer more than that myself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What about Talaayeeb for the Oaks, surely that must be worth a bet given the pedigree?
Hailing something as the winner when we haven’t even had the 1000 guineas yet seems a bit daft to me.
What about Talaayeeb for the Oaks, surely that must be worth a bet given the pedigree?
Hailing something as the winner when we haven’t even had the 1000 guineas yet seems a bit daft to me.
That’s where you get the value Judge. Make an early call and get in before the rest of the punters.
Fair Eva and Daban must be doubtful for heading to the Oaks, so Rhododendron looks the obvious one if she puts up a good show in the Guineas. She’s fairly exposed now though and I am not of the opinion that she is another Minding in the making.
Talaayeb could be anything, but we simply don’t know. Her maiden win has not offered any real encouragement in terms of subsequent form. She will obviously catapult to the head of the Oaks betting if she lands the Guineas on her second start but that has to be a big if.
The Musidora is the best trial for the Oaks in my opinion and I expect Shutter Speed to start favourite for the race. If she wins, she surely goes short for Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The only thing that would concern me about Shutter speed mate is maybe some possible doubts about her staying… there’s a few doubts on the dam side and she showed an awful lot of speed at Newbury… she reminds me a bit of passage of time who fell in a hole half way up the Epsom straight
Looking at the pretty polly today it looks a pretty awful renewal
Couldn’t completely rule out the godolphin horse.
The Gosden fav will go off around even money but that seems more to do with the fact that her stable has won the last three runnings than anything she has achieved on the track. Actually the form of her maiden win has worked out pretty terribly so I think she’s worth taking on.
The beckett filly is interesting but the one I think that must be worth backing here is HORSEPLAY. she was devastatingly impressive on her second start and of course the concern would be the ground as that was soft and here she is racing on much quicker ground, but the prices look all wrong here so will be taking a punt on her
Well that was a relief after an otherwise pretty horrendous day
Nearly backed Way of Wisdom and settled on Kit Marlowe
Nearly backed Frontiersman but decided on skiffle instead
Nearly backed Douglas McCarthur and decided to leave the race alone
And that’s even before we get to the 1000 guineas
Anyway the form choice HORSEPLAY dug me out of a hole
I know the feeling!
I too backed Horseplay (after all how many horses win their maidens by 12 lengths?) and thought I did well to get 10/3. Thankfully I got best-odds guaranteed and paid out at 11/2.
I wouldn’t rule her out of the Oaks but at the moment I feel that Rhododendron is going to be mightily, mightily hard to beat and 5/2 seems more than fair at the moment for a filly that should already have a Classic under the belt.
I don’t agree I think she’s very beatable in the oaks.
For a start she’s very speedily bred on the damside
also punters tend to overrate horses that stay on or meet trouble in running- their performances always get marked up.
Would I rather back Rhododedron or Talyaaeb who also ran a promising trial in the same race considering she has far less experience, and is rated at much bigger odds.
It’s a no brainer for me.
Incidently there’s also the Chesire oaks this coming weds. Doesn’t look a particularly great race. Alluring was visually impressive last time even if she probably beat little and she would be the no-brainer pick, going on that the opposition looks beatable and more importantly just the run her trainer is on
That’s fair enough and I’d be interested if they try and get another run into Talaayeb before Epsom given her inexperience.
I can’t believe the favourite won’t be equally effective over the trip. Aiden seems to have always had the Oaks as the main target and she has the look of a middle-distance filly.
But I’m in full agreement about the Cheshire Oaks – I’d be surprised if the winner would be in the shake up at Epsom. If I’m to have a bet in that race I’ll probably take a chance on Tansholpan. Varian has campaigned her as if she’s a filly in need of a trip and doesn’t bring bad form into it.
For me, Talaayeb was not crying out for the Oaks trip. The suggestion was that Daban didn’t quite get home in the Guineas and to my eyes, Talaayeb’s run petered out.
I have had a pretty awful couple of weeks tipping horses. Some have gone close, some have been awful, but Shutter Speed is a filly I have tremendous confidence in.
John Gosden will get a good line from Enable running in the Cheshire Oaks but he has always regarded Shutter Speed as his best Oaks filly.
Most Guineas winners don’t go on to win the Oaks and Winter may not even try. Rhododendron won the Fillies Mile last year but I am not sure how great that race was and Gosden surely has a line through Daban, as to how Shutter Speed compares.
The trainer didn’t make a lot of noise, much to the disgust of some observers, about Daban’s chances in the trial for the Guineas but no secret was made over the winter that Shutter Speed was their leading Oaks filly.
People can prefer Coronet if they wish, but the trainer sends her to France and that is not a positive move for me, with that race not having a record of fillies following up in the Oaks, which is so close to the French Group 1.
Shutter Speed is getting little credit for her win but I believe she will win the Musidora and with only two runs under her belt she has the room for improvement that Rhododendron is unlikely to have. I feel she will beat Rhododendron with some ease over the 12F trip.
Rhododendron seems no value to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree with you that Shutter Speed has a far more likely chance of winning the Oaks than Rhododedron.
Have backed Alluringly for the chesire oaks but very worried about this enable; especially as on pedigree she should improve for the step up in trip, and the visual impression from newbury was that she would for it as well.
alluringly also seems like an alluring ante-post bet for the oaks at around 25-1.
if she wins tomorrow then she’ll be single figures no doubt. Unless she just scrambles home.
You only have to go back two years to find the last oaks winner to be sired by fastnet rock, and she had fairly dire form going into the race. It seems to me that having that tactical speed from a sprinter and then allied with stamina, is a lethal combination in classics. we see that with galileos as well. Both the winners of the newmarket classics were from Galiles mating with sprint mares.
It used to be the more stamina-laden types would dominate at epsom, and while you still need to get the trip, in recent years you’ve had horses like sariska and qualify wins the oaks who are by sprinters. It’s probably now because the ground is always lightning fast in june and they have such good draining facilities. So the ability to lay up with them and have that tactical speed predominates over the more staying types.
Interesting comment from Gosden on Coronet. She runs on Sunday in the G1 Prix Saint Alary but he said he sees her as an Epsom Oaks prospect, Tom Segal commented on her and only stopped short of tipping her cos she hasnt run yet and tipped Horse Play. Looking to see how she runs on Sunday. ~Really tempted to do a Cracksman/Coronet e/w double
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.