The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Oaks 2019

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Oaks 2019

Viewing 17 posts - 35 through 51 (of 69 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1443512
    Avatar photoMarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3080

    Mango Tango, another Siyouni with stamina on the dams side, couldn’t win over 12f despite several wins over 10f.

    We’ll see but I doubt Maqsad is equally adept over further as she is at 10

    #1443513
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Of Siyouni progeny:
    Other than Almost Midnight who’s won twice at 12f…
    St Mary’s won at up to 1 3/4 miles.
    Both of those had a female line full of horses effective at distances of at least middle distances.

    Maqsad’s dam Amerique’s best performance arguably when second in a listed event at 12.5f on stamina sapping very soft ground. ie You could say she’d have stayed even further on less testing going. Amerique was by the great influence for stamina Galileo out of Aquarelliste, who was second to Sakhee in a soft ground Arc.

    Will be difficult coming from around last to first and… Obviously by Siyouni there’s a doubt about Maqsad staying. I’d say no more than 50% and probably a little less than that! However, if this race were 10f I’d be making her a short priced fav (around a 7/4 shot, certainly no bigger than 2/1). Therefore, imo worth taking a chance she’ll stay if the ground favours speed.

    Value Is Everything
    #1443514
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Mango Tango, another Siyouni with stamina on the dams side, couldn’t win over 12f despite several wins over 10f.

    Bit harsh, Mark. :rose:
    Mango Tango was beaten 3/4 length in an 11.9f Group 2 and 2 1/2 lengths in a 12.4f Group 2. Got upset and unseated prior to another at around that trip/grade.

    Those subsequent “several wins ove 10f” all came in lesser grades; ie her 11.9 and 12.4f runs probably her career bests.

    Value Is Everything
    #1443538
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    9/1 Maqsad too good to ignore. :wacko:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if she starts around 9/2.

    Value Is Everything
    #1443555
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    Agree with you Ginge. Maqsad is a brilliant brilliant bet.

    She just wins lads. She’s special.

    #1443603
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    9/1 Maqsad too good to ignore. :wacko:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if she starts around 9/2.

    Hasn’t taken long for Maqsad to come down. Now top bookmaker price 6/1, 6.4/1 betfair. ;-)

    Value Is Everything
    #1443604
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9135

    Going to go with my TTF filly Pink Dogwood here at 11/4, and put her in a double with Broome

    #1443637
    Avatar photoGladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6622

    A very poor renewal on paper. The field looks barely Listed class and, although several of them have potential to improve over middle distances, this looks one of the worst crops of fillies I can remember.

    #1443641
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    Have to say I think that’s incredibly harsh Gladiateur.

    A fair renewal. Potential to be an above average one even.

    #1443648
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    Looks a better renewal than last year at the very least

    #1443650
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6657

    Mehdaayih for me

    That turn of foot she showed at Chester was electric

    My worry was the way she lugged to the left under pressure in the last 100 yards or so, there is a chance she may get unbalanced at epsom

    But when I was watching the Chester race I said theres your oaks winner so time to put my money where my mouth is

    Had a double with her and lah ti dar earlier in the week, will have a single if lah to dar doesn’t get the job done

    #1443704
    Avatar photoviktors89
    Participant
    • Total Posts 325

    Mehdayaayih the most likely winner for me but the difference with Anapurna is not as much as double the price so I’ve backed Anapurna at 15/2 in the exchanges.

    Also had a bet on Fleeting at 40s… you never know with Aidan.

    #1443706
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6938

    I am on Anapurna and Tarnawa and I think this could be a great race as opposed to some saying it isn’t.

    I think the quality of the runners will show later in the season when we see what they have achieved!!

    As Frankie says Come on me :good: :good:

    #1443710
    Avatar photoMarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3080

    I had Mehdaayih at Chester but I’m with Anapurna now.

    Here’s hoping I haven’t sold the winning ticket

    #1443714
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    A very poor renewal on paper. The field looks barely Listed class and, although several of them have potential to improve over middle distances, this looks one of the worst crops of fillies I can remember.

    tbh You do have a point, Gladiateur. With the two middle-distance bred fillies already with Group 1 winning form – Hermosa and Iridessa – missing the race… And the only lesser middle-distance Group race – the Musidora – producing a substandard winner… This Oaks could be a very poor year. There’s only winners of listed races left. Therefore runners are going to have form going in to the race a long way below average Oaks winning form… And you do aknowledge “several of them have potential to improve over middle distances”. Where I’d disagree is several of those Listed winners don’t just have potential, they have bags of potential… And imo Maqsad, Annapurna and Mehdaayih have put up performances in those listed races of Group winning standard, with more to come. Pink Dogwood, Frankellina and Manuela De Vega are also thoroughly unexposed and could yet improve enormously once given this opportunity to race against a higher class. There are so many with potential/bags of potential, suggests to me this is likely to be at least a fair Oaks if not better.

    Be surprised if Maqsad does not prove herself of at least average fillies Group 1 standard before the end of the year (may or may not stay today). Must be remembered we are currently spoilt by having three older fillies of not just fillies Group 1 winning standard, but better than average fillies Group 1 winning standard. Enable, Sea Of Class and Magical… And possibly a fourth with potential to join them in Lah Ti Dah.

    Value Is Everything
    #1443726
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 728

    Medaayih is my main pick – she was amazing at Chester – but I think Anapurna is a little overpriced, so I’ve bet her as well.

    BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #1443729
    Avatar photoTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 18676

    I’ve been a fan of LAVENDER’S BLUE :heart: since she won her Maiden at Newmarket on 16th April beating the very usuful Maamora and Alandalos, she then went on to just go down by a neck to Queen Power over 1m2f and the extra distance should hold no problems for this Sea The Stars filly out of a Danehill Dancer mare. :heart:

    I’ve also played Maqsad winner on two occassions at Newmarket the last time very impressively and a big danger here.

    Lavender’s Blue 22/1 – Each Way
    Maqsad – 8/1 WIN

    Reverse Forecast

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Viewing 17 posts - 35 through 51 (of 69 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.