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Looking at myweather2 could well get another 14mm today, think I will watch the Woodcote and make my mind up then.
Had a little bit (already) on Give And Take at 10s EW, just feel as people have said not the greatest oaks and she did it well enough at York
When hills open a book for race i saw Forever Together 100/1 her and Gardens Of Babylon my darkhorses from AOB yard at start of season but i am not on her at that price be gutted if she win it.
But be happy for you Charlie if she does do it.
Do we think it’s a shame Laurens isn’t running in this? I certainly do, she’d have had a big, big chance.
Oh well! Am I the only one who likes the look of Perfect Clarity? Doesn’t seem to be a lot wrong with her.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
My Oaks ratings below…a hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings, slightly weighted for pedigree in the classics.
Had a decent record previously in some years, first 3 last year (though not necessarily in the right order).
Personally, in the eye, I like Perfect Clarity… but here is what the numbers say.Bye Bye Baby 119
Magic Wand 112
For’ Together 112
Flattering 112
Wild Illusion 105
I Can Fly 105
Perfect Clarity 98
Give And Take 91
Ejtyah 70The ratings are converted to a BHA scale to make them more normalised and comparable. Think this works ok with the higher ratings but tends to dilute the lower scorers.
Good luck everyone.I think that Flattering is very worthy of consideration in a not particularly
strong running of this year’s Oaks. I put her up at 33s in the ante post thread a
couple of days ago, that’s gone but still plenty of 28s at this time. For me the
big deciding factor is the ground. Flattering has had 2 runs on GF, where she was
less than impressive, but on her one run on soft/heavy she was a completely different
animal. It may have been a bog standard Fillies Maiden at Cork, but she couldn’t
have been more impressive pulling 10 lengths clear without breaking sweat. I think
her odds will shorten tomorrow and that she is a very decent e/w shout at her present
odds.The briefest of brief returns.
I thought I had seen the light and backed Flattering several times before final declarations. For some reason O’Brien is talking absolute nonsense when he suggests none of his will like soft ground. Have a look at that Cork run again. She is absolutely loving it. Massive rounded action and it looks like she wouldn’t have minded another circuit. Even the laziest of pedigree analysts knows the influence of Pivotal and soft ground. If you assume she didn’t like the ground the subsequent Lingfield run wasn’t too bad. She went off 11/10 favourite.
Unfortunately, there is one major snag in the jigsaw. Step forward, P Beggy. Why on earth would you put up a work rider on a horse with a decent chance? Yes, he won a Derby, but that race just fell apart in front of him. If Dettori was on board tomorrow this horse would be single figures.
Had I known the jock I would have just backed the horse once in the probably vain hope that he doesn’t mess up.
Good luck.
I’m actually off this morning to Epsom for my first Oaks since Taghrooda stormed home in 2014 and somehow I don’t think I’m going to see a winner today of similar ability.
It’s a Classic nonetheless.
I’ve backed two here and both come from the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Perfect Clarity is unexposed, will relish the stamina test and through the sire shouldn’t mind the give. She impressed me at Lingfield and I feel she should be shorter in a 9 runner affair. Flattering wasn’t actually too far away in that race and probably should have been played later than she was. The ground should make things easier for her, as would a more patient ride.
Perfect Clarity 7/1
Flattering 28/1I’m off to the Oaks today too Charles. Been the last two years. Doing the Derby tomorrow for the first time since Kris Kin won – a race I barely remember as I was quite young at the time.
Ajman King 2/1 for the third race today is my nap of the weekend.
Be lucky.
Glad I did not have a bet in this race ante post… It’s not a very good edition today with all of the very many with drawls.
I bet Burke is absolutely screwing that he never put Laurens in here. A big big mistake IMO, he might not ever get a better chance to win a British classic. P J gave her a bad ride at HQ IMO, he never went anywhere near fast enough on her, as shown by her coming back to the winner at the line.
What price Laurens in here today?
I’ve come down on Magic Wand for a small bet. She won very easily last time, and looks uncomplicated. Forever Together could well reverse the form, but I can see her being a bit all at sea around Epsom myself. So it’s Magic Wand, but only really for an interest.
Some somehow saw Winter in I Can Fly last time; going off only 7/1 for the Guineas. Ran no sort of race, why?
Wild Illusion never looked to be travelling in that race. By Dubawi (whose best progeny tend to stay further than he did) and out of a 2m winner… and dam’s sire Monsun another stamina influence. Even so, 4th in the one mile Guineas and Marcel Boussac form are the best two form performances going in to this race and (on both breeding and the way she stays on at lesser distances) may improve for a step up to this trip. Magic Wand might be the Ballydoyle “first string”, but their four top two year old fillies aren’t here – Clemmie, Happily, September and Magical. So there’s an arguement their 5 horses are their 5th to 10th strings. AOB made a poor decision running Happily in the Irish 1000. Cheshire Oaks form is no more than ok and the second Forever Together didn’t get a clear run – Magic Wand poor value for the winning distance as such, but seemingly raced green, possibly had a lot more in the tank… or was it temperament? Racing with ears pricked and head high. Can see why Ryan has gone for her as if anything shows a lot of improvement it’ll be Magic Wand (or Perfect Clarity) given her probable greenness. Flattering impressive in winning her maiden on very soft ground, was that flattering? …before disappointing @ 6/4 in Lingfield Oaks Trial only a week later. Did the race come too soon? Was the ground not soft enough? However, the Winner of that race Perfect Clarity is my most likely saver. Unbeaten and improved a lot from first to second start, the daughter of Nathaniel shouldn’t be underestimated. Musidora winner and third, Give And Take and Ejtyah could improve, but they finished in a heap at York, they can’t all be good. William Haggas is a trainer I really like who is in top form; but GAT is not thought to be even the stable’s best filly. Although not as likely to find big improvement as the “first string”, Bye Bye Baby‘s performance in the Blue Wind is (to date) just as good form and may get the run of the race up front (if not sacrificed as pacemaker). To me – BBB looks the value out of the AOB contingent.I’ve backed Wild Illusion and Bye Bye Baby (and La Ti Dah
).Value Is EverythingWild Illusion is 9 lbs clear on RPR and 17 clear on the clock.
There are potential improvers but she sets the standard by a big enough amount to win if she stays.
Ironically, I would have been on her at 16/1, had I not had a volte-face with John Gosden’s Lah Ti Dar and backed her instead at 11/1. Initially happy with my re-assessment, it has now bitten me in the ass.
Like Saxon Warrior tomorrow, Wild Illusion is the only Group 1 winner in the field and O’Brien brings one of his weakest ever teams to a Classic.
If getting the trip well, Wild Illusion should win readily. I’ll say 3 lengths or more.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wild Illusion never looked to be travelling in that race. By Dubawi (whose best progeny tend to stay further than he did) and out of a 2m winner… and dam’s sire Monsun another stamina influence. Even so, 4th in the one mile Guineas and Marcel Boussac form are the best two form performances going in to this race and (on both breeding and the way she stays on at lesser distances) may improve for a step up to this trip. Magic Wand might be the Ballydoyle “first string”, but their four top two year old fillies aren’t here – Clemmie, Happily, September and Magical. So there’s an arguement their 5 horses are their 5th to 10th strings. AOB made a poor decision running Happily in the Irish 1000. Cheshire Oaks form is no more than ok and the second Forever Together didn’t get a clear run – Magic Wand poor value for the winning distance as such, but seemingly raced green, possibly had a lot more in the tank… or was it temperament? 
).
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