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I’d take the Mogul needing 2 runs before the Derby with a pinch of salt myself. There may be something in it this time but recent evidence isn’t there. If trainer can get Guineas horses ready with 0 preps he should be able to get one ready for Derby with 1 prep. AVD last year had a setback early season which delayed his start until Lingfield. So not an ideal prep plan. Didn’t stop him from winning. His previous winner (Wings of Eagles) also had 1 prep. And so did the one before that. (Australia).
Mogul not running in Derrinstown so assume going to Royal Ascot instead.
I have put my first bet on Russian Emperor at 50s. He’s beautifully bred by Galileo out of a 10f G1 winning mare and os a fine big beast who finished strongly in his two races so far.Comorant and Iberia also run on Tuesday but they both have blinkers on…hmm not keen. Iberia plenty of experience and beat RE in his first run but doesn’t have as much scope I don’t think.
Nothing to suggest this yet? He’s short pricewise, but he’s seriously promising.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!English King’s RPR from Lingfield is 111 and his dam fails on a pretty significant breeding trend. He needs a huge step up to the win the derby off that Lingfield run. Need to see what else is in the race, but I’d be very disappointed if Mogul achieves 111 in his trial whenever that would be. Looks like King Edward now
Although saying that he can probably be marked up a few pounds off that figure as they didn’t really get that serious with him to be fair
Exactly Frenchy. It was a trial on his 3rd start of his life! I really like him, wouldn’t back him at the price he is now like.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Military march started losing ground to the front 3 around 1 furlong out which would concern me that he’l stay the derby trip https://youtu.be/OH6EWAJk3jU?t=87
Istabraq, the Derby will be a different test. Less emphasis on speed and worrying about being up with the pace, wind behind, wind direction all that jazz. I think he will stay.
Istabraq, I too was a little disappointed with how he finished the race. It’s certainly put a seed of doubt in my mind.
In mitigation, the jockey was not hard on him once the winner went passed him.
However, if you had offered me 4th before the race I would have gladly taken it(as a trial for the Derby), but the way he finished the race has put doubt in my mind.
The winner was clearly hard fit for the race, I’m hoping the trainer of MM left a bit to work on with a view to the Derby.
“Military March needs a mile and a half and the Guineas was a good race for him before the Derby,” Bin Suroor said on Monday. “He is doing well and we’re happy with him.
“He was a little bit fresh before the Guineas but has always worked well on the watered gallop in Newmarket. He should be more settled now and he’ll be ready for the race.”
highest ground ew – nothing else appeals dont think kameko will quite stay o brien aint got any superstars this yr english king has a chance but bit too short for me now for all he was impressive – what else is there?
Emissary is running on Sunday in the cocked hat Stakes half brother to workforce, interesting
Still hoping Mogul hacks up in the long Edward next week
Mogul is entered in the Gallinule on Friday evening at the Curragh. However, if he runs he carries a 5 lb penalty.
He’s not declared for Friday.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The Derby is one of those races I like to look at the stats/trends for. I don’t follow them blindly but I find it a useful starting to point to see what the average winner should look like.
I have compiled these from various sources.
My trends so far based on last 15 years are:
Ran as 2 year old 14/15
If ran 2 or more times as 2 year old should post an RPR of at least 100. 14/15 (breakdown: 10/15 ran 2 or more times and 100+. 3/15 ran once. 1/15 didn”t run. 1/15 failed the test)
If debut run was before last week in July should run top 4 in Group race. 7/7 from those that qualified.
Sadler’s Wells in Pedigree 12/15
Dam’s best RPR over 100 13/15 (2 failures RPR 96 and 99)
RPR of 118+ as a 3 year old. 11/15 (2 failures only had 2 runs ever in life, 1 failure had RPR 119 as 2 year old, 1 failure RPR 106 Wings of Eagles) Trend can maybe better be modified to, if 2 or more lifetime runs RPR 118 or above 14/15.
Average winning distance of Sire + Damsire 9.5+ 12/15 ( failures 9.45, 8.95, 8.85)
Does anyone have any other interesting trends to add to my list?
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