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Frenchy love reading your thoughts, but is Ryan Moore that big a deal to keep changing your mind/bets?
Good luck whatever you back
Haha, No point nailing your colours to a mast if you’re not happy.
It’s not so much that Ryan has chosen him, it’s more what it would have meant if Ryan had NOT chosen him.
I write a blog and I’ve been pretty clear on there for my picks yesterday, just panicked when I saw the swing on bfx and a cash out at 5% loss was the right play at 6am this morning because it enabled me to go in again if I wanted to, which I’ve done at the same odds.
I like to use this forum to bounce ideas and to challenge my own thinking. It’s what it should be for in my opinion.
If Mogul bombs, I would not be surprised if it gets won by either Kameko or Vatican City as in time I think they could be the best two horses and it’s such a poor lineup, but I have not backed either of them.
I’ve added Mythical though who i think can outrun the odds and sneak a place.
Mogul 14/1 Antipost
Mogul 7/1
Mythical 50/1 EWMike, the problem with Oath’s win from stall 1, is that they went off at a crawl that time and KF managed to get Oath into a perfect position in behind the leaders. No way I can see that happening on Saturday. They will go off quick and then slow it right down mid-race and make it a completely different test for EK, I think.
They’ve hardly been absolutely crazy Jack, this is a debate forum. I still don’t know who you’re backing?!
Can see an outsider winning this now with the two horses guaranteed to stay at the top of the market drawn 1 and 2
I’m already on mohican heights as well as mogul so may look for another at a big price
Very hard race to call in my opinion. Not one runner who has a good profile as a Derby winner on my trends.
Have backed Mogul Antepost however and won’t lay it off, but not very confident. Especially after the draw. I’m no paddock judge but could see he was fatter than the mother-in-law at Ascot so hoping he comes on a ton for that. He’ll need to improve a stone but his profile is very similar to Japan who improved 11 lbs from the Dante to the Derby and he hadn’t eaten half as many pies over the winter.
One I do like at bigger price is Highland Chief (Who has been tipped up a fair bit and price isn’t great now. EDIT: hes 25/1 I thought he was in to 12/1. 25/1 is great price i think.)
Decent 2 year old form including third in the Chesham.
Galileo and Montjeu in his pedigree.
Decent dosage profile (36 points with 17 stamina points).
His dam was decent (106 RPR)
Trainer has won the Derby.
He only really fails my trends by not having a high enough RPR but every runner fails that except Kameko.So for me:
Mogul win
Highland Chief e/w (not backed yet)Also had a small bet on Vatican City.
Yes jack, His formline from the trial really has taken a doing, berkshire rocco is being used as an absolute rock solid pointer, when hes not, yes santiago won the irish derby and he was the similarly infront of BR as EK, but like ive said previously as everyones aware, santiago will have taken a huge step from ascot to the curragh and you can make an assumption if BR did or didnt from the trial it doesnt really matter, given that ed walker trains EK ill take a pretty solid view that EK would have been quite far forward in the “hope” he could get the go ahead to run in the derby, which for a trainer like him is a big thing…
I doubt in a normal year santiago would have won that irish derby either had a few in behind been given there normal route to the race pre-pandemic.
3rd place has since finished 17/17
4th place has since finished 5/6 in a bad race in which arthurs kingdom has massively let that formline down since also5th/6th/7th & 8th have also been well and truely stuffed.
What has he beaten? a group 2 horse could have won that race as he did.
Now there is the angle that EK is just miles better even undercooked, but with connections i dont believe that to be the case, i think he won a very, very poor race comfortably at listed level and is now an extremely short priced fav for the best 12f race in his age group, if he was trained by JG i could maybe see that he had loads left to work on. How many group 1 winners has ed walker had in his hands so far?
Hes got to drift in the day, got to.
We will see Frenchy. It depends how quickly Frankie gets EK out of the stalls. If its quickly and he is with the leaders in the first 100 yards or so and then slots in just behind them I don’t see the draw being a problem. I remember he rode an amazing race on Golden Horn in the Arc. Can’t win from that wide draw they said. But Frankie had a plan and succeeded. I am glad he is on him.
ham a lot of Ed Walkers horses were needing the first run around the time English King started. So yes expect there is more to come.
The mafia have horses drawn 2, 5,6 and 8
No doubt they will be doing all they can to make sure dettori doesnt get a run
ham I would be interested to know who you think WILL win. You’ve given accounts on some who wont so tell us who is going to win now the runners and riders have been confirmed. Give us 1 horse.
I like to use this forum to bounce ideas and to challenge my own thinking. It’s what it should be for in my opinion.
100% agree. It’s very good to a lot of differing views
They’ve hardly been absolutely crazy Jack, this is a debate forum. I still don’t know who you’re backing?!
To be fair Frenchy, i did say “i enjoy reading your thoughts etc. dont always agree but it’s a forum!”
Absolutely crazy wasn’t meant like “you’re mental (lol)” more like what i said after, a little all over the place. Given the trouble it’s given you this year, you deserve a Mythical win!
Also, i said in that post, i was happy with Mohican Heights, he’s my only bet at this stage, after Hugh Taylor + co stuck up Highland Chief + ruined his price for me.
I’ve waited to see the draw etc. before making a second selection, as to be honest i don’t think there’s a standout.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Kris where the heck did you see 25/1 today i have missed it?!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!This is your assumption of the form Ham. It hasn’t taken a doing right now, you believe it will do.
Agree Santiago is no normal Derby winner, but you can’t use it as a stick to beat him, or rocco right now with any certainty.
He will drift given his draw, and his form isn’t fully proven, it’s not taking a proper doing though. The front 2 were 9.75ls clear of 3rd at Lingfield, sorry i couldn’t care what they’ve done further back lol.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!haha, that’s okay then, although the last 24 hours has sent me a little bit that way!
And relax……
Good luck with Mohican Heights, think he could place possibly. I can’t have Highland Chief myself unless it turns into a bog on Saturday, I think that’s actually a strange shout personally from (was it Simon Rowlands can’t remember?) Mohican Heights looked much the likelier of the two to improve from Ascot to me anyway.
Much of the stats I look at, in fact probably all of them are wins stats as well. If Kameko keeps drifting, he’s a no brainer place shout as well for me. Exactly the same breeding profile as RL. Can easily see him running as well as RL did.
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