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Too soon for him to win a Derby methinks off of a class 5 with the race just 9 days away. Needs a bit more time to mature. Probably one of these Stoute slow burners. Waldkonig to me always looked like a softer ground horse too.
Yes probably too soon as you you both say.
This Derby is a real headscratcher as their is nothing in the race with a perfect profile.
I think Kameko has the least question marks (although stamina is a worry) and is a very backable price now at 5/1 and will probably be my bet on the day. The others need to improve nearly a stone and he just has to stay.
I have already backed Military March and Mogul Antepost but at similar prices to what they are now and don’t strongly fancy either particularly anymore.
Kameko has a course question to answer as well. Jockey said he was lost going into the dip at Newmarket then ran on. I picture him being all at sea changing legs etc coming down Tattenham Corner.
Has all the talent in the world but I doubt Derby day will be his day. Military March only has 3 and 3 quarter lengths to find over a more suitable trip so he is one that wouldn’t need to improve nearly a stone, he’s closer to Kameko than that.You can go back further with that RPR trend Kris Kin as well…
17/20 – had recorded an RPR figure of at least 118.
! – 2 exceptions – Having only their third start
! – 1 exception – Was a poor derby quality, highest rated only 113The problem is that exception when Wings Of Eagles won, it was in the poorest renewal for those 20 years of data and this one looks equally as poor on ratings if we take out Kameko.
I would also take a keen interest in Highest Ground if he runs. They didn’t rule him straight out yesterday which I thought they would’ve done after earlier comments. They said something like “it may come a bit too soon”…..which we could also read as, if he wakes up this morning full of himself I would not be surprised at all if he goes now because as you say it’s ridiculously open this year.
What are the other trends that English King fails on for you?
For this year, anyone that thinks they can pick the derby winner on the current form we’ve seen is lying! It’s almost impossible. We have to look at deeper trends and specifically breeding needs to take close attention.
English King is actually one that IS bred for the Derby. He is from the Montjeu-Shirley Heights mix which has been successful many times. He is the next generation along from Motivator as well.
His form is a complete minefield, cantering past rubbish horses pretty much in all races on the bridle. He is the proverbial “could be anything horse”.
But he IS bred for the derby.
Military March on the other hand isn’t. New Approach’s only derby winner to date Masar is from the very successful derby bloodline of Cape Cross. I’ve studied the bloodline of MM yesterday and there are pointers to suggest he does not have any of Danehill’s speed in him, whereas Cape Cross definitely got into Masar.
If you look at MM close relatives, Nearly Caught and Clongowes they were anything but Derby horses running over much further.
Kameko is a little under the radar in the market, because everyone has assumed he won’t stay. Put it this way, if Kameko stays and he handles Epsom okay, he wins easy. His form is a million miles above anything else.
Roaring Lion didn’t stay and he had probably a slightly stronger immediate breeding profile than Kameko does, but that said he still finished 3rd with an RPR of 118, which could be enough to win this year on current evidence Kameko looks a better horse than Roaring Lion was.
Also, I found something last night that gives me more hope. His dam Sweeter Still, her dam is Beltisaal, out of Belmez, who won the King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes.
Connections seem pretty confident again. I love what they say about him being so relaxed, that’s very important for Epsom and maybe significantly, AB comments yesterday about there being no crowds at all meaning horses are much more relaxed….Well, that would give him an even better chance of staying if he’s ice-cool, relaxed and calm all in the build-up to the race.
After winning so big on the Guineas with him I’ve been conscious of not allowing my heart to get carried away and going with him again for the Derby, but I am gaining more and more confidence.
I think I will end up with Kameko and then one other one, that one hopefully being Armory.
AOB said yesterday that a couple of the Irish Guineas runners could head to Epsom. Well, that can’t mean Royal Lytham, M of E or Lope Y Ferndandez, so can only mean Armory, Vatican City and Fort Myers.
he said that after the Royal Lodge though Mike, not the Guineas. He had no issues with the track in the Guineas.
I think I’ve picked the Derby winner and I’m not lying.
English King 12-1
Military March 11-2.Problem is in some cases people are trying to find value or double figure prices or both. If it’s a struggle it probably means the winner is amongst the shorties.
I can see your nose growing…..
I can maybe entertain Military March for his Guineas 4th, but come on English King? He’s cantered past a load of nothing on the bridle. There is no form at all to go on other than he looked visually good, that’s not a form pick, that’s a ‘he could be anything pick’
12/1 is a nice price in this field though, did well there!
Mike, I just went to check, for the record he didn’t say that, he said, about 4 furlongs out, he got a little bit lost and he didn’t know whether that was the track, the ground or the pace of the race.
It is still a slight concern because he said after the Royal Lodge “I don’t think Newmarket is his ideal track”
But even with that said, he still won a 2000 Guineas on it and he was not bothered with the dip, so it is not necessarily the track. It could very well have been the pace of the race was catching him out a little bit in the middle of the race. He’s bred for 10F so that is entirely possible
If we believe the rumours this morning, this is AOBs Epsom team…
Amhran Na Bhfiann
Russian Emperor
Mogul
Vatican City
Mythical
Armory(possible)I guess that means with Armory he might end up in France, but remember Coolmore have Ocean Atlantique for that, so it’s possible AOB won’t have a runner.
Vatican City, another in the “will he, or won’t he stay” category
All my trends I only went back 15 years.
Trend 1. Classy 2 year old form. If ran 2 or more times as a 2 year old has achieved an RPR of 100+
Trend Strength 14/15.
FAIL – Ran twice RPR 87Trend 2. Black type Dam if raced. Dam unraced or achieved RPR 100+.
Trend Strength 13/15 100+ (15/15 96+)
FAIL – Dam achieved a lowly 79Trend 3. Dominant Classicity Or at least Equal Classic points to other points (Dosage Profile)
Trend Strength 10/15 EDIT – originally posted this as 13/15 which was wrong!
FAIL – EK has 14 Classic Points and 18 total other points.Of course trends are often there to be broken and I probably missed a fair few winners in the past by sticking to them too strictly. But they are usually fairly good way to narrow the field in high class races I think.
I posted before with no replies but does anyone have any other interesting trends?
Nice price on English King Mike, but he’s too short now. I think he’s the likeliest winner, but would i back him at his price now no? Out of interest would you?
On Kameko, even if he did lose it a little at Newmarket, that’s a credit to his ability. Epsom would be a different challenge completely, and we can’t rule him out because he might not enjoy Newmarket? I do think he’ll be even better on a galloping track though- like his run at Newcastle. I could see somewhere like York really suiting him down the line.
I would be interested if they did send Armory here as i said above. My only real concern is, how good was the Irish Guineas really? Siskin showed a fantastic turn of foot, but there were a lot of “eye catchers” and when that happens, i question it.
I personally am a little surprised they are taking a go at this with Vatican City. So unexposed, but so pedigree + experience are massive question marks for me. I like him as a horse, but i think it’s purely down to how this season has panned out they’ve done it.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“But would i back him at his price now no? Out of interest would you?”
Difficult one to answer. I wouldn’t have left it this late to back him to be honest if I liked him, at some point I would’ve pulled the trigger, if not at the 12s then perhaps when he went 8s. At this late stage maybe wait to back him on the day if one thinks he wont be shorter on the day. Only risk would be if the Frankie factor kicked in on the day and he went 7-4 from 11-4.
I backed Love at 11-8 for the Oaks so I don’t have a problem backing short ‘odds against’ prices if I don’t see much opposition at the time and think they might go odds on. A win is a win as they say
.I wouldn’t be too harsh on Berkshire Rocco myself. He ran to 108 in the Vase on ground that Andrew Balding described as a worry beforehand. Arguably, he could’ve run to 110 on fast ground and given the winner more of a race. That would put English King on 114. Bang there with improvement likely.
AOB runners update…
“Hampton Court Stakes winner Russian Emperor is an intended runner along with Mogul, who disappointed in the King Edward VII at the same meeting, Irish 2,000 Guineas runner-up Vatican City, Mythical and maiden Amhran Na Bhfiann.
They could be joined by Armory, although he’s also under consideration for the French Derby.”
Military March is out https://www.godolphin.com/news/military-march-to-miss-derby
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