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William Buick is in for an interesting ride on Libertarian. Just watched the replays of his races and at Epsom he could do anything from running off the track to winning the race.
Mozart is another with a sprint bred dam. I had excluded him from my short list after looking at his pedigree, & I am sure pedigree sent him to the Curragh.
I would not expect him to get more than 10 furlongs, despite the science.
(Watch him come in 10 lengths in front now)!
Ocovango for me with one of Aidens second, Libertarian 3rd & Dawn Approach 4th after showing briefly in the straight.Anyone can make a mistake. I make them all the time in fact the older I get the more mistakes I make.
Wait till you get to my age; you then make mistakes but never realise that you’ve made them…
Latest on the O’Brien plans
Joseph O’Brien
to ride
Battle of Marengo
Ryan Moore
to ride
Ruler of the World
Richard Hughes
to ride
Mars
Seamie Heffernan
to ride
Festive Cheer
Colm O’Donoghue
to ride
Flying the Flag
Dettori will not ride any ballydoyles
Magician will not run in the derby, will instead run at the St James’ Palace Stakes at Ascot.
Are these facts? Not surprised by the defection of Magician having only run last week, Hughesie will be a good partner for Mars but can’t seem him winning.
I find it increasingly difficult to see which horse Frankie would ride if he can get a permit in time – Galileo Rock maybe? With the certain media frenzy surrounding his comeback, who would want a rusty, probably unfit Dettori anyway?!
Coolmore have indeed declared Magician a NR – I have taken the very kind 18s offered by Billy’s EW about the northern challenger Libertarian, if he can stay in touch and get round the bend in one piece not many will finish with a better rattle
Are these facts?
The jockey information is confirmed on the Racing Post website:-
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1066001
I am pleasantly surprised Ruler Of The World made it and I’m happy Ryan Moore is on board. It still looks disconcerting that they are throwing five hats into the ring though.
I am on Ruler at 25/1 and Galileo Rock at 66/1 each way. Dawn Approach will probably scoosh in with the minimum of fuss but I missed the boat with him a long time since.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks, but I was checking more so on who if any Dettori will ride as Patrick mentioned he would not be riding any of Ballydoyle’s – is this fact or just conjecture?
Thanks, but I was checking more so on who if any Dettori will ride as Patrick mentioned he would not be riding any of Ballydoyle’s – is this fact or just conjecture?
Source:
http://www.coolmore.com/ballydoyle-epsom-derby-runners/Hughsie on Mars, great stuff!
Going in even more confident now. Also get on Mister Music opening day, will enjoy the undulations of Epsom.
Good luck all!
Martin
Thanks, but I was checking more so on who if any Dettori will ride as Patrick mentioned he would not be riding any of Ballydoyle’s – is this fact or just conjecture?
The article I referenced states:-
"Dettori will not be involved in Ballydoyle’s riding arrangements for the Classic"
The source was Aiden himself, so that would seem as factual as it gets.
I can’t see why they would change the jockey of Galileo Rock, who has ridden him all three of his starts and it seems unlikely Frankie will participate unless the Police have a spare mount available
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Doh, should’ve checked the link!
True, would be harsh to jock off Lordan on GR, can’t see any horse he’d ride though, maybe Fabre’s? Seems unlikely we’ll have the fairy tale comeback that the media so crave…
Coolmore have indeed declared Magician a NR – I have taken the very kind 18s offered by Billy’s EW about the northern challenger Libertarian, if he can stay in touch and get round the bend in one piece not many will finish with a better rattle
I agree that Libertarian might be the dark horse, certainly a good each way prospect. At the moment we really don’t know about the New Approachs’ staying power, but the horse has a nice bit of stamina through the distaff side. Perhaps in time he will develop into a nice St Leger type. Great to see a Yorkshire trained horse in the mix.
The Ballydoyle scattergun approach has shades of Sea The Stars Derby about it, except they don’t even have a G1 winner in the field (unlike Fame And Glory was at the time). Shame Kingsbarns is not there to make it a real stamina test. BOM is just a last minute sub, and probably over-hyped. The fact the stable seems to rate him over the more visually impressive ROTW suggests that the former works better at home than the latter. Strange to think back to when Mars made hid debut on the all weather at Dundalk and he was being touted as the next big thing. Now almost an also-ran. I wonder why he was at one time thought to be so great?
The German and French horses are also interesting, with little to gauge their form by their beaten horses. Chopin is by a unknown German miler but with a bit of stamina through Galileo on the dam’s side, but more 8-10f speed through Gulch. The pedigree does not scream 12f, but no less (in fact probably more) so than the principals DA/BOM. He had a couple of wide margin successes in Germany, but none of the horses he has beaten have done anything of note, so the form figures might flatter.
Ocovango has a similar stamina profile to Shirocco, but a little less on the dam side. Shirocco won on the derby course in the Coronation Cup so that gives us some (little) idea of how a Monsun might handle the track/distance. Obviously a completely different style to the German horse, his winning margins have been small after having made all or been prominent, but he beat a smart looking horse in Wire To Wire on his last G3 run.
Unlike STS, DA does not have guaranteed stamina on either side. It is funny to think we ever doubted STS staying power now considering the stout German dam side and the other Derby winner in the family! DA has no such refuge. New Approach is as yet an unknown quantity for 12f progeny, and the sire himself has a fair bit of speed through his dam Park Express. Although on the face of it the dam is pure speed, she does have some stamina through the sire of her dam Pleasant Colony. Overall, I would be surprised if DA stayed. I would imagine the jockey will hide him out the back and try to protect him as long as possible, because he might be treading water at the furlong pole and vulnerable to a something staying on late.
Anyway, that’s my take on things. Sorry for it being so long!
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