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Libertarian’s breeding profile does suggest that 1m4f of Epsom won’t be any problem, gets plenty of stamina influences from his dam side. If he handles the track then you can see him being on the premises at the end. ‘Unfashionable’ stable likely to keep his price up as well…
Gotta think though the Derrinstown looks the stronger trial than the Dante though with Bolger I think sending his 3rd horse to York, that said I would love to wage on Libertarian if there is a match bet with Ocovango, that horse surely is a place lay, only seems to be high in the betting cause of Pour Moi and they have no similar type of profile at all, Ocovango seems a Gold Cup type, and would probably need mud to play any sort of part at Epsom.
Does know-one think Loch Garman has a chance in the Derby or have I missed something?
Does know-one think Loch Garman has a chance in the Derby or have I missed something?
He looked a big, ungainly sort in The Derrinstown behind Battle Of Marengo and I don’t think Epsom will suit him at all. He is not entered for the race and would need to be supplemented but I would think that is unlikely. He is entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Derby though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gotta think though the Derrinstown looks the stronger trial than the Dante though with Bolger I think sending his 3rd horse to York, that said I would love to wage on Libertarian if there is a match bet with Ocovango, that horse surely is a place lay, only seems to be high in the betting cause of Pour Moi and they have no similar type of profile at all, Ocovango seems a Gold Cup type, and would probably need mud to play any sort of part at Epsom.
I totally agree about Ocovango, I think he is a ridiculous price based on a half length win in a 5 runner Gp 2 race that has little or no collateral form. His supporters will tell you "He could be anything" but French horses don’t feature very often at Epsom and he must surely drift on course come the day of the race. 7/1 is a price only fools and virgins would take in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting that after Greatwood failed the Dante test Telescope suddenly arises from the ashes to represent the owners in the Derby.More and more I believe less and less of what trainers say about sick horses.
Does know-one think Loch Garman has a chance in the Derby or have I missed something?
He looked a big, ungainly sort in The Derrinstown behind Battle Of Marengo and I don’t think Epsom will suit him at all. He is not entered for the race and would need to be supplemented but I would think that is unlikely. He is entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Derby though.
I just thought on the face of it his form behind Battle of Marengo actually isn’t too bad and would more than likely stay The Derby trip. I think it will run a big race at the weekend, interesting horse
Does know-one think Loch Garman has a chance in the Derby or have I missed something?
He looked a big, ungainly sort in The Derrinstown behind Battle Of Marengo and I don’t think Epsom will suit him at all. He is not entered for the race and would need to be supplemented but I would think that is unlikely. He is entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Derby though.
I just thought on the face of it his form behind Battle of Marengo actually isn’t too bad and would more than likely stay The Derby trip. I think it will run a big race at the weekend, interesting horse
He is best priced 10/1 for the Irish 2000 Guineas as I write. Interesting that Magician is prominent in the betting for that race, given that he had been tipped for The Derby by some.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Trying to work this one out…it’s obvious Dawn Approach is the classiest thing we have seen since Frankel, although that wouldn’t be hard given he’s just retired. But looking at what I think are the correct race times, Dawn Approach ran the 2000 guineas in virtually the same time as Frankel on identical ground, and also Sea The Stars. Most people would have questioned Frankel’s ability to last a mile and a half because of his speed, yet Sea The Stars proved them all wrong. Now to Dawn approach….it’s quite possible he could be mentioned in the same breath as the aforementioned come the end of the season, but I really do believe that Frankel slaughtered a very weak guineas field and Sea The Stars won a very weak derby. Dawn Approach could quite easily win the Derby given his class, but because of the speed he has shown,I’m inclined to side with a touch of class and bit of staying pedigree, and to that I will side with Battle of Marengo. Not many horses break the track record even though their saddle slipped, hasn’t done too much wrong, will stay, and will go on good ground. To me rates the bet as he ticks all the boxes in my opinion. He beat Trading Leather and Loch Garman by virtually the same distance so Bolger will know where he stands, and for those Loch Garman fans, he seems a decent horse in his own right, so will be doing a Loch Garman (IR 2000) and Battle of Marengo (Derby)double. I believe the Derrinstown has been the best pointer for the Derby and other top races for many a recent year.
Battle Of Marengo might be one of those horses that does just enough. If you fancy him you would certainly hope so given that there doesn’t look that much sunstance to his string of victories. The Derrinstown was a two-horse race and in all likelihood a dire renewal. Loch Garman’s winning form is on heavy ground and what have the placed horses done for that form since? Hardly beaten a rival. The form as it stands is threadbare. Battle Of Marengo did beat Trading Leather but the latter was a 14/1 shot making his debut. To my eyes it was Trading Leather, not the winner, that looked like the Leger candidate at York. Is it really surprising that Dawn Approach might be working more favourably than a heavy ground Group winner and a one-paced stayer?
Does the sudden reemergence of Telescope not make one wonder about his withdrawal from the Derby trial last week.The failure of Greatwood and the reemergence of Telescope is some coincidence.
On that same subject I wonder how much effort O’Brien actually made with Kingsbarns. His reported setback was ages ago and all we got were reports that it was a race against time to make a trial and then finally/inevitably it would be unfair to go straight to the Derby. Now either whatever happened was a good deal more serious than reported or seemingly the trainer has given up pretty tamely (to the obvious detriment of those who had made him favourite) because he could go to Epsom with several alternatives. Telescope, without a trial run, has had a problem much closer to race but a few days later it looks as if he is back on track. Would he be running if Stoute was in a similar position to O’Brien?
To be fair it was "a mere flesh wound", that subsequently got infected as opposed to a muscle or tendon injury and connections said at the time that the Derby was hopefully still the plan.
Highclere have never made any secret that Telescope was their number one Epsom chance but that said, you couldn’t have blamed them if they’d given the horse another couple of weeks until Ascot if Greatwood had bolted up in the Dante.
Lee
Opinion, actually held back at Lingfield, Telescope looks no way near fit enough for a Epsom Derby, probably going to use it as a prep run for The Curragh.
Telescope is out to 10/1 now and Dawn Approach is as low as 4/5.
As it stands I am leaning towards Libertarian as each-way value at 20/1 because I have my doubts about Mars, Magician and Telescope even showing up. There will be a serious thinning out of the field over the next week or so and I reckon Battle Of Marengo and Ruler Of The World will be O’Brien’s 1 and 2 for the race. That leaves the ridiculously priced Ocovango and Chopin, who will surely be largely unknown to the average punter and surely some bookies will have the cojones to push them out on the day.
I have a bet on Ruler Of The World at 25/1 but I am not getting the positive vibes I was hoping for regarding him, so it’s time to take the plunge Libertarian each-way 20/1 Ladbrokes (and others)
Good luck to Dawn Approach, it would be nice to see a champ emerge, however the Guineas form doesn’t look strong with a runner-up at 150/1 seemingly improving 20lbs on all previous form and all that I see looking at Dawn Approach’s races suggests he won’t stay, not that this will deter punters who seem to have a child-like faith that horses will get the extra half mile, despite history showing it doesn’t happen often.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Could you say more about why you think he won’t stay Steve.I know about his pedigree; did you see something in running that led to this conclusion?
Telescope is out of the race now. Trainer stating that he has soreness in a shin. Where he goes from here will be hard to say. Did they rush him to try and make the Derby and how long will it take to get him back to peak condition?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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