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With my original selection, Magician, now out of the reckoning, and my serious doubts over Dawn Approach’s ability to stay, I have, after serious consideration, decided to back two horses in the race –
Ruler Of The World and Ocovango – both trained by masters of their craft and who will stay every yard of the trip.
Ocovango handled his Epsom gallop in much the same manner Pour Moi did – very well balanced colt with a nice turn of foot.
As for Ruler Of The World : hopefully Ryan will have him handily placed in order to utilise the horse’s undoubted stamina.
Game on !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The Draw for this year:
1 Ocovango
2 Festive Cheer
3 Ocean Applause
4 Chopin
5 Libertarian
6 Mirsaale
7 Dawn Approach
8 Flying the flag
9 Battle of Marengo
10 Ruler of the world
11 Galileo Rock
12 MarsThe going is currently Good To Soft-Soft in places and it was stated that the Derby is unlikely to be run on better than Good to Soft.
I have my hat here and I am getting it ready to wear while watching the Derby. If Dawn Approach wins, I will take my hat off to him just before marinading it with Barbecue Sauce and lightly grilling it for Dinner as promised, Gulp…nervous times ahead!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When I originally backed Ocovango to win this race, Dawn Approach was not entered.
I think that Dawn Approach might well struggle with the distance but if others are unable to improve on their previous performances, then he could win.
The only problem with Ocovango, other than can he improve,as far as I can see is that his jockey has had no actual racing experience at Epsom.
I’d be very very surprised of the ground is good to soft on Derby day, Good is way more likely and will probably race on the fast side of good come Derby, warm days Friday and Saturday. No more rain expected I don’t think either.
I live in Epsom, and the past few days we have had a lot of rain, it has just started again very heavily.
Looks like we might see good-soft ground if the weather does not improve, which may give Ocovango an edge over others (most notably DA.)
Fri: 20c Dry Sat: 18c Sunny.
Derby Day will almost certainly dry up.
The guy I heard seems to have changed his tune now and thinks that soft should be out of the going description by Saturday. Maybe he had a brainwave and actually looked at the forecast. Might set a trend there
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was quite taken by Chopin’s win at Krefeld. The form might not be much but he was impressive and whilst he might not be Derby class he’s one to keep an eye on.
Who do we think will make the running ?
I may lay part of my 5/2 back if Epsom softens.I find it bizarre you give these arbitary 60% and 50% estimates but dismiss CC/CT etc so quickly.
How did you come to this 60% estimate of him staying (and if staying doesn’t incorporate winning, how do you define staying, since a horse can stay a trip but be less effective at it than a shorter trip). Assigning such a specific equity if you will is quite curious.
It’s rash to take much heed of CC/CT etc on the basis of some quick fire stats, but it’s also somewhat ignorant to not want to look into it with great detail and understand it’s importance and use.
If you’ve reached the conclusion of CC etc because you’ve done some heavy research into it, then well done, and please share that information, because it fascinates me. If however you haven’t, may i ask why you’ce consigned such an avenue to the proverbial trash heap when you pride yourself so much on apparent math and statistic assessments.
My own definition of “staying” would be putting up a performance (in quality terms) within around 3 lbs of his/her current best. It is possible such a performance won’t be good enough to win or indeed possible may not need to truly “stay” to win.I don’t "dismiss CC/CT" J17, it may be an informative thing for all I know; but because I’ve had a good deal of success doing things my way, am not "concerned" if CCs says he won’t stay. As I’ve said before, the trouble with any pedigree (or for that matter genes) analysis is it does not account for temperament. A look at how a horse races is necessary before an opinion of stamina limitations is formed. Lazy horses or those who settle particularly well usually get further than you’d expect from pedigree analysis alone.
Dawn Approach is by 8 to 12 furlong performer New Approach who had speed to finish runner-up in both English and Irish Guineas without being bred for a mile. He in turn is by Galileo out of Park Express. Everyone knows Galileo won the Derby and is an outstanding influence for both quality and stamina at stud. Progeny usually take after him rather than dam’s side of pedigree when it comes to a son/daughter’s stamina (though there are some famous exceptions).
Best of Park Express’s progeny also took after the sire for stamina. Shinko Forest (by Green Desert), a Group 1 6f winner in Japan. Dazzling Park (by Warning) won Matron Stakes by 5½ lengths (although not a Group 1 in 1999) and placed in both Irish Guineas and Champion Stakes. Park Express herself was by sprinter Ahonoora but out of Matcher. Matcher only raced twice but was by French St Leger winner Match III and out of Lachine who won at 10f. Park Express won the Irish Champion and Nassau (10f) but also stayed 12f well. Won Lancashire Oaks and ¾ length runner-up in Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, running right up to her very best. All this despite being one who according to Timeform Racehorses Of 1986 “takes a good hold” in her races; a trait passed on to her son.
Normally you would not expect a horse to win the 2008 Derby when pulling so hard. It can therefore be concluded New Approach would probably have been a far easier winner and stayed the trip even better – had he settled well.
If dam Hymn Of The Dawn was also a middle distance horse you’d expect Dawn Approach to also stay at least 12 furlongs; but she wasn’t. Her half-brother Galanta (by miler Tale Of The Cat) finished second to Horatio Nelson in the 2005 7f Group 2 Futurity as a two year old and third in Group 1 Woodbine Mile as an older horse. Hymn Of The Dawn is by Phone Trick out of Colonial Debut who produced Comadoir (by miler Medicis) who won at a minor level at up to 7f. Phone Trick was a sprinter and is responsible for pretty much exclusively sprinters and milers including Breeders Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies (mile) winners Favourite Trick and Phone Chatter. Colonial Debut’s sire Pleasant Colony won the Kentucky Derby and her dam (Dawn Approach’s third dam on the tail female line) Kittyhawk Miss (by Alydar) is full sister to top class (at around a mile) Miss Oceana, winner of six Grade 1’s. Fourth dam Kittywake won 18 races and was by the great Sea Bird II. She also produced Larida and Kitwood (by Nureyev). Larida won a Group 2 and is dam of Coronation Stakes (mile) winner Magic Of Life. Kitwood was a close second in the Hollywood Derby (10f) and won Prix Jean Prat (9f)… With all the mile stock in Hymn Of The Dwan’s pedigree you could say she’s bred to be a miler.
So Dawn Approach comes from a male line that generally stay a mile and a half well and female line of predominately milers… Which is why I said “in my opinion Dawn Approach’s pedigree alone suggested he’d near as definite get 8f, fair chance of getting 10f and outside chance of 12f”. Without knowing anything about the horse (ie on breeding alone) Dawn Approach would be (imo) unlikely (ie less than 50% chance) to stay. However, stamina is NOT all about breeding; temperament is a vital consideration. We know plenty more about the horse. Relaxes very well, to such an extent some might even describe as lazy. Style of winning the Guineas at a mile suggests he’ll get further than a mile. Running/staying on and going further and further away from his rivals at the line.
So taking temperament as well as breeding in to account – I believe Dawn Approach is likely to be at least equally effective (if not better) at 10f as he is at 8 and on a sound surface is more than likely to stay 12f. “More than likely” again in definition meaning better than 50%, which is why I said “around 60%”. On the other hand – if it came up soft or heavy it may be a similar stamina test to 13f+ on a sound surface. A test that may well place too much of a strain on Dawn Approach’s stamina limitations, as said on heavy would be “considerably less” than 50% chance of staying, let alone winning.
At current odds I would not back Dawn Approach.
Value Is EverythingDon’t lay a penny of that 5/2 Ginge
he will win tomorrow he is the Class Colt (CC) in the race and unless he has been taking time off to study for a Degree at Oxford he has no idea what type he may have been handed down only that he never runs a bad race and gives his all.
Quite fancy a small each way on his half brotherLibertarian
who won the Dante, if he can settle he has the same turn of foot as
Dawn Approach
and could go close.
With AOB running 4 horses who knows what tactics he is planning to spoil Dawn Approach’s big day
Just hope that ‘Yoda’ Bolger has trained his Jedi well.All credit to Jim Bolger for taking Dawn Approach where Frankel feared to tread and even if DA does lose his unbeaten record tomorrow he will bounce back for the Sussex Stakes.
You only get the one bite at the Derby so he has let him take his chance and ‘May the Force be With Him’
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think he’ll stay and win comfortably. Anything better than even money is a good bet. I took 6/4 a couple of weeks ago, which will probably be available tomorrow morning.
Something of a gamble taken place on Festive Cheer – 50/1 to less than half that price already. You have to think there must be some inside knowledge at work here. The drying ground should be in his favour but you would have to think he would need to find 10-14lbs on the French run where he was favourite and looked slow. I see him as progressive but presumably Moore could have chosen him over Ruler Of The World (drying ground definitely not a plus) had he so wished.
Something of a gamble taken place on Festive Cheer – 50/1 to less than half that price already. You have to think there must be some inside knowledge at work here. The drying ground should be in his favour but you would have to think he would need to find 10-14lbs on the French run where he was favourite and looked slow. I see him as progressive but presumably Moore could have chosen him over Ruler Of The World (drying ground definitely not a plus) had he so wished.
There is plenty of 25/1 still available Stilvi. Halving in price may sound a lot, but in reality 50/1 to 25/1 is only a reduction of 2.2%.
Value Is EverythingPaddy Power emailed me to give 2-1 for Dawn Approach – only buttons allowed on though. Still win or lose 2-1 is a pretty good price bearing in mind he is 12 lbs clear on Timeform ratings and probably the best horse in the race even without stamina issues and New Approach proved he can get top class 12f horses today.
There is plenty of 25/1 still available Stilvi. Halving in price may sound a lot, but in reality 50/1 to 25/1 is only a reduction of 2.2%.
You mean relative to the market?? Otherwise it’s a 50% reduction in price isn’t it? Likely that JoB is on the best Ballydoyle horse isn’t it? He normally is.
There is plenty of 25/1 still available Stilvi. Halving in price may sound a lot, but in reality 50/1 to 25/1 is only a reduction of 2.2%.
You mean relative to the market?? Otherwise it’s a 50% reduction in price isn’t it? Likely that JoB is on the best Ballydoyle horse isn’t it? He normally is.
Not sure TRFers are going to like me talking about percentages jpaul, but…
Actually I made a mistake, it should’ve been 1.8 not "2.2".
What I meant is:
Punters need a 2% strike rate @ 50/1 to break even.
Punter need a 3.84615% strike rate @ 25/1 to break even.Difference of just 1.84615%.
So a small supposed improvement in the horse’s chance, possibly the jockey booking of Heffernan. Or just the fact it wasn’t thought of as a runner just a few days ago, so was a tempting price, bookmakers wanting to get it in to their book. There’s been "money" in recent days for other similar Ballydoyle horses.
Very much doubt if the market move is significant.
Value Is Everything
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