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The Derby market is wide open, really is. With Frankel 95% sure to skip the race, 2 maiden winners are leading the market. Casamento and Roderic disappointed hugely yesterday and Seville will be too slow, that’s almost certain on his breeding.
Native Khan should surely be challenging for favouritism, if not the clear favourite. I just think he looks rather one-paced. A Derby winner should really be able to beat a dual-Listed AW winner over a mile anyway.
Marksmanship’s very interesting, but Recital’s form took a big boost today with Banimpire and Adilapour. The Derrinstown and Dante will essentially decide the Derby IMO. Could easily be a straight duel between World Domination and Recital.
What price is Recital on the machine lads….
Betfair wont work on due to a virsus on the ald laptop. Last time i checked he had drifted big time
Oh wow, yes, you’re right. Matched at 36 very recently. Currently 18/28. Don’t think he’ll be fast enough IMO. If World Domination and Carlton House disappoint in the Dante, Native Khan should absolutely run in the Derby.
18 is good news even if their is a big gap between that and the lay price. Hopefully was just a stone bruise and see him among the decs on Tuesday for the Derrinstown
Well Roderic and Misty both drifted in the coming fortnight before the Guineas and look what happened there.
Just found a list of all the Derby winners. Only 3 times has this race been won by a Grey, the last time in 1936 by Mahmoud.
Puts me off Native Khan.
Doesn’t seem to be anything inspiring running in the Dee stakes, today we should see the Lingfield Trial line up, but its looking at present like the Leopardstown Trial or the Dante will produce the winner.
Sea Moon is in the Chester Vase, when was the last time the Derby winner came from that race?
I’m hoping either Recital and Carlton House win, they are still my choices. I’m assuming that Recital will run at leopardstown on Sunday.
Difference could not be bigger Zark Imo….
2 feeble looking Galileo’s compared to a big strapping son of the mighty Derby Sire Montjeu.
If Frankel did go for the derby how you guys think he do.As someone who got on at 33/1 i hope he go for it.But can’t see it now
And i think Carlton House will win Dante and become new fav for derby.
I said previously that I do not think Frankel is a Derby horse and will be very surprised if he runs at Epsom.
Henry Cecil said in his most recent interview that as Frankel continues to grow, he may get ten furlongs later in the season – ala Brigadier Gerard.
Bearing that in mind, I would bet my house on it that Frankel will stick to the big mile races in the meantime. He is already priced at 1/3 to win the St James Palace Stakes. I think that is where we will see the great horse run next.
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MARKET MOVERS & ANTEPOST BETTING FROM WILLIAM HILL
With doubts lingering as to Frankel’s participation in the Investec Derby, the John Gosden-trained Nathaniel has been the subject of support, with William Hill trimming his Classic odds to 25-1 from 33-1.
In comparison to Frankel, Nathaniel has only had three racecourse outings, however unlike the 2000 Guineas winner, Gosden’s charge has experience over the Derby distance after winning at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance.
Lucy Rhodes from William Hill said, ‘No other horse has come closer to Frankel’s rear end than Nathaniel when just a half-length separated them on debut, and the form has been given a further boost with the victory of Genius Beast in Sandown’s Classic trial’
Investec Derby: Nathaniel 25-1 from 33-1
2011 CLASSICS
Investec Derby 2011:
6-4 Frankel (with a run), 4-1 World Domination, 6-1 Carlton House, 8-1 Seville, 12-1 Recital, 14-1 Native Khan, Vadamar, 16-1 Casamento, Sea Moon, 20-1 Marksmanship, 25-1 Nathaniel, Ocean War, 33-1 Dunboyne Express, First Mohican, French Navy, Loving Spirit, Masked Marvel, Master of Hounds, Midsummer Fair, Notable Graduate, Pivotman, Quest For Peace, 40-1 BAR (E/W 1/4 1,2,3)It will be very interesting to see how Solar Sky runs at Goodwood on Thursday. I am hoping that he wins well thereby boosting the World Domination form.
If World Domination ran green how green did Solar Sky run!! He was arguably finishing the best of the two.
I said previously that I do not think Frankel is a Derby horse and will be very surprised if he runs at Epsom.
Henry Cecil said in his most recent interview that as Frankel continues to grow, he may get ten furlongs later in the season – ala Brigadier Gerard.
Bearing that in mind, I would bet my house on it that Frankel will stick to the big mile races in the meantime. He is already priced at 1/3 to win the St James Palace Stakes. I think that is where we will see the great horse run next.
Frankel will next run at Royal Ascot after Henry Cecil said that the remarkable 2000 Guineas winner would not line up in the Investec Derby.
Cecil will resist the temptation to step the unbeaten colt up to a mile and a half at Epsom, instead focussing on the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile.
The Warren Place handler told the Daily Mail: "I think the Derby would not be doing the right thing.
"I’d want to give him a race before Epsom over a bit further but I can’t do that.
"Frankel is very well, but we will take it step by step.
"You have to think of the horse and we don’t want to be experimenting with him.
"At the moment, he is telling me not to go a mile and a half and the Prince (Khalid Abdullah, owner) agrees.
"All being well, we’ll go to Ascot and then go from there."
Seems like it was only yesterday when John Oxx wondered aloud whether Sea the Stars would get the Derby trip. The only way to find out he would say was to go and find out.Henry don’t have half the gonads of little John.Afraid of getting beaten is he.As a well known trainer said once "I am not in the business of hiding I am in the business of racing". Our most famous trainer is in the "business of hiding" now. This horse is owed a chance to win a Derby. What will the future think of him when he ducks the big one? Do you want to breed to a horse who could not be trained to settle by the best trainer in the world? Who must be allowed to run wild? I don’t think so.
Frankel’s non participation in The Derby will have no bearing on his potential status as a "great" racehorse.
Countless trainers and owners have succumbed to the lure of Derby glory with their 2,000 Guineas winners, only to learn what many good judges had anticipated beforehand.
Henry Cecil has said many times that he harboured doubts over Frankel’s ability to stay. Why then should he or Prince Khalid Abdullah take such a gamble in order to satisfy others’ curiosity.
I am absolutely convinced the right decision has been made. If staying sound throughout the season nothing will get near Frankel, and I look forward to him blitzing everything out of sight in Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile – or who knows, maybe even the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Now that would be a mouth watering prospect.
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