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How Edwulf cheated death – https://igsrv.org/miracle-of-cheltenham—how-horse-cheated-death
What a fantastic story of coming back from the brink Charlie, I do remember that day. Nobody could deny Edwulf his moment of glory today and if he goes on to win the Gold Cup it would be another Aldaniti moment where a horse came back to win a big race after being almost written off.
Edwulf you are a miracle and a true fighter and today fate dealt you a happy hand, well done to everyone who helped him get there.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Just novicey errors mike youd think that if he stood up it would have done him the world of good to iron them out (it might still do) i didnt think his jumping was that bad, hes awkward in the air, but didnt hit them.
I have to say well done to Bobby for digging out Edwulf, although in my opinion Killultagh Vic was travelling by far the best coming to the last. Djakadam was under the cosh and Outlander was under a lot more driving than KV. I think that Killultagh Vic would have been odds on in running at the last and I feel he would have scored in decent style.
Djakadam folded fairly tamely after the last and Outlander was reeled in by the surprise packet Edwulf, so I feel Killultagh Vic would have seen that pair off by a few lengths.
I don’t think this was a strong renewal. Our Duke’s Irish National form was a stone in front of his form at shorter trips on official ratings and this was a very different task to the unusual trip in the National.
Outlander is inconsistent in his trainer’s opinion and plenty of punters would attest to that.
It’s most likely that the majority will see Killultagh Vic and Our Duke as having run the best trials for Cheltenham, so can either of them win it?
It’s hard to see Our Duke having bested KV if he had cleared the last fence today and the Gold Cup will be tougher. My concern for KV is that he seems fragile, with only 4 runs in the last two years. Will he handle another major race after falling this time?
On the whole I feel the race today falls short of providing the Gold Cup winner. Killultagh Vic and Our Duke are both as low as 8/1 for Cheltenham and make no appeal to me at those odds. Both are as high as 16/1 but I can’t back them at those odds either. I could see why the higher odds might appeal to some but in the individual circumstances I feel there are enough concerns to leave them alone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Day 2 worked out much better betting wise for me, but quite a few were places.
Merie Devie e/w
Outlander e/w
Delta Work e/w
Last Goodbye 18/1 winner (Betfair i took but was generally 12s)
Polidam nowhere, Half the Odds Non runner..A Great View nowhere. Also Reel Steal just came up shortTwitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Well done to Bobby, a great selection
On Killultagh Vic, its been a fantastic set of training performances from Colin McBratney and Willie Mullins.
The horse was as good as toast last spring, and was lucky if he would end up pointing. How far has he come!The ability of the horse to run how he did on his 3rd start over fences is incredible too. I hope his jumping wont make him more susceptible on better ground a la Bristol De Mai…
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m taking Our Duke out of the GC today. Made a race-ending mistake and never really recovered, and I also thought he looked a bit big (I’m not sure if he’s always like that). I’d expect him to improve for the run.
If Robbie Power ends up riding Sizing John, one jockey who I think would be brilliant for Our Duke is Leighton Aspell. He’s obviously a great rider and he gets his chasers jumping.
The Racing Post awarded Edwulf 169 today. That is 17 lbs higher than his Official Rating coming in and 11 lbs higher than his previous RPR. It looks a hard one to swallow out of the blue like that. I’d be a layer if he was running off 169 in a handicap race for sure.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would love to know how they arrive at their figures. Not necessarily because I disagree or agree (although I do disagree with that), but because it would be interesting.
It’s a difficult one to judge because the time would indicate it wasn’t a quickly ran affair, Djakadam might not have been suited taking the lead and Our Duke made a big mistake at an important time. I can only assume they’ve taken Outlander as running as good a race as ever.
The Racing Post awarded Edwulf 169 today. That is 17 lbs higher than his Official Rating coming in and 11 lbs higher than his previous RPR. It looks a hard one to swallow out of the blue like that. I’d be a layer if he was running off 169 in a handicap race for sure.
He wont be 169 on OR which is what they base a handicap mark on so he wouldnt be rated so highly to start with, sounds excessive when you put it like that on rprs, he will likely be about 161-163 on OR which is about correct given how ADO, Vl, djakadam and outlander ran
you cant compare his rpr against his or, they’re totally different.
And i dont work with rprs degaussed sometimes id like to know how the figure them out, i wish they would just use OR’s, i find the rprs totally useless personally.
The main story is behind the paywall but I think we get the gist
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investigation-begins-into-festival-bets-2kmdwzs9pIt’s poor that these types of things aren’t asked about in the stewards….
But this does happen on a regular basis, so i am not sure why it has taken WPM to do it for it to be questioned.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!@tonge
To expand on your post tonge, this is what Mark Johnston had to say in a Guardian article in 2007 about betting exchanges and the laying of horses which many disagreed with at the time but still holds some clout to this day.I have been raising concerns about betting exchanges since their inception. With a traditional bookmaker you back a horse to win whereas with the exchanges you can lay them, ie you are betting against the horse. My opinion is that betting on horses to lose, or for that matter, a football team or tennis player, is simply wrong. Everyone can surely see that this opens up an opportunity for corruption should anyone be that way inclined.
There are ways of ensuring a horse loses a race, but there are none to ensure that it will win. The arguments in favour of exchanges ignore this fundamental point but the head of Betfair, Mark Davies, is a superstar when it comes to arguing how they open the sport up to scrutiny. He has given the public a sense of security by explaining how exchanges track the betting patterns of registered users and so can expose suspect betting activity.
The argument runs that traditional bookmakers continue to take bets from anonymous punters so can neither track potential fraud nor expose it. Defenders of the exchanges also point out that bookmakers have always had informers and hence the potential for corruption has always been there. But you need to remember that before betting exchanges there were only a finite number of bookmakers who were licensed to lay bets.
Personally, I would rather there were none and bettors could only gamble on the Tote, but that will never happen. And while I am not naive enough to believe betting exchanges will be banned here as they are in Hong Kong, I would feel more comfortable to have a limited number of bookmakers able to lay bets rather than every individual around the world.
I am not convinced the system can track bets to provide evidence of wrongdoing because the person laying the bet and the one providing the information will not be one and the same. It is no different from corrupt practices under a bookmaker-led regime; except that it is available to the masses.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I quoted Edwulf on RPR simply because the new figure was available and we could evaluate the change.
The new OR is now in and is 164, so he’s suddenly leapt up 12 lbs. I am suspicious of that for two reasons. Djakadam is on the wane and he went from being right there at the last to weakening so badly that he was ten lengths in arrears at the finish.
Djakadam is on the decline and the Handicapper has knocked another 3 lbs of his rating, probably to circumvent giving Edwulf an even higher rise. I am always wary of using horses on the way down, in case they are going into decline more rapidly.
Outlander is a bit hit and miss for me. He ran like a drain behind Bristol De Mai and he’s probably cashed in on a day where fallers and disappointing efforts have left him to take second and nearly win it.
Some have seen positives in Our Duke’s run but for me he’s been very disappointing. Almost certainly lucky to take 4th place and he’s been thumped in reality for my money. I didn’t have a bet in the race and have no preference for any horse over another. I see Our Duke’s National win as his best performance by a good way and I can’t have him as a Gold Cup winner.
Edwulf is 164 now and Might Bite is 169 on the Official Ratings. Is there really only 5 lbs between them? Might Bite is capable of more perhaps but he’s a King George winner and generally you would prefer that race as a Gold Cup guide compared to the Irish National. Dessie won the Irish race but that was aged 11 and after his Gold Cup success. Our Duke would very much be bucking the trend.
I sometimes wonder if the Handicappers inflate ratings to prevent a renewal of a top race from looking a bit shabby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Outlander is a bit hit and miss for me. He ran like a drain behind Bristol De Mai and he’s probably cashed in on a day where fallers and disappointing efforts have left him to take second and nearly win it.
He’s a bit of a weirdo isn’t he. But i wouldn’t say focusing on his run behind Bristol De Mai is fair? No horse ran well that day other than BDM, and its been later shown, BDM cant run to that level regularly without set conditions. Outlander has won a G1, and finished placed in two this year so his form is of a very fair level. Adding to that, its fair to say his best form comes at the track 4 wins, 1 second + a third.
So i am not sure he has cashed in on fallers at all.Agree on Djakadam i really think the way he raced there suggests hes better over shorter…the only issue is, i see him at his best with soft in the description, for all he has run well in the big races at the festival.
On Our Duke, hes jumped one really badly round the bend, and he cant afford to that in this company. He has a right to claim “rustiness” as he has been off for some time and is entitled to improve on this quite a lot for me. Is that good enough to win a GC though? Not for me.
I am really not sure what the handicapper can do after Edwulf beat a low to middle 160 horse in Outlander? I agree it could be a flash in a pan win but the handicapper cant just right it off can he? If Killultagh Vic stays up it would’ve been an interesting finish, and if he had say put 5Ls between him and Edwulf+ Outlander..i wonder what way it wouldve been rated then. All ifs and buts that part.
I guess Might Bites rating of 169 comes from him not actually beating a whole pile in the King George either?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!You have to give them a rating based on how they ran against whats in the field and on form outlander ran his rating they have no option but to put edwulf where they did, its not a shock, nothing wrong with being skeptical of it as the way he came from the back tanking could mean the pace just suited him better than the others, but there is no way around the fact that if edwulf where not in the race youd say they almost all ran to there OR, killultagh vic improved probably a stone, djakadam regressing slightly and our duke probably fair after his op
If you take out his chase reappearance and the time he was pulled up at cheltenham, his form isnt to bad, probably fair to say hes never had enough races in sucession where hes stood up to show his true worth
Will the formline hold? Time will tell, but you cant get a better benchmark than outlander round leopardstown lol
Regarding might bite, id rather the irish gold cup form as opposed to the king george this year personally, as if KV stood up we could have seen a really smart performance, might bite a worthy fav at this stage though, no denying that.
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