Day 2 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes

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This topic contains 19 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 5 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #483106
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Steve,
    When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.

    Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.

    What form line has been diminished since the Arc?

    Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.

    Last years Arc was trailed as a classic renewal. I didn’t think so and that is why I felt it wise to go for

    Orfevre

    . Just because he was well beaten doesn’t make it a great Arc.

    Horses such as

    Intello

    ,

    Al Kazeem

    ,

    Ruler Of The World

    ,

    Flintshire

    and

    Leading Light

    were all put forward as potentially top class rivals and were tipped in some camps. Of those only Leading Light has done much to catch the eye this year and he is clearly a stayer who I didn’t think would trouble the judge at Longchamp. I don’t think Ruler Of The World was a good Derby winner, Flintshire has never impressed me the way he has some judges and Al Kazeem was well past his sell by date by the time Roger Charlton put him into more races than he said he would.

    You can choose to believe what you want from the race and I will make my own deductions from what I saw.

    Nobody said it was a "great Arc", but it was one of the best winning performances. ie Had Treve not taken part Orfevre would’ve been no more than an average Arc winner…

    You mention many horses Steve, but Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire and Leading Light have all been rated as being below form in the Arc. ie

    Treve is NOT rated on any of their runnings

    . Or to put it another way, whether they took part or not does not matter to the rating given to Treve. Only a minority of horses run to form in any race.

    The only horses that ran to form/improved are Treve, Orfevre, Intello, Kizuna and Penglai Pavillion. None of the other runners past or previous form matter. So, what have the horses

    in this paragraph

    done to reduce Treve’s rating?

    Treve didn’t just beat Orfevre, she beat him by

    5 lengths

    . Therefore, the rating put up by Treve was exceptional. Orfevre came in to the race with top class Japanese form, an unlucky 2nd in the previous race and having won his European prep easily. Then (what you don’t say is) Orfevre then won his only subsequent race before retired to stud. Winning the Group 1 Arima Kinen by no fewer than

    8 lengths

    … From Win Variation, who went on to be beaten by only a neck in another Group 1. Timeform give Win Variation’s two performances the same rating.

    The only horse you mention that Treve’s Arc winning performance rating has anything to do with is Intello. But how the !"£$ can Intello "done much to catch the eye this year", when he was packed off to stud immediately after the Arc. Beaten a total of

    5 1/4 lengths

    by Treve in to 3rd. Beaten only

    1 3/4 lengths

    by Olympic Glory with another

    short head

    to Moonlight Cloud over an admittedly (possibly) inadequate mile. Intello had earlier won the French Derby by

    2 lengths

    .

    4th was Japanese Derby winner Kizuna. Had won his slowly run European prep from English Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Other performances you don’t mention Steve are Kizuna’s subsequent runs. Won a Group 2 with plenty to spare by 1 1/2 lengths after the Arc. Then (remembering he was beaten

    7 1/4 lengths

    by Treve) beaten only a

    1 length

    in another Japanese Group 1.

    5th place Penglai Pavillion hasn’t done much for the form since, but he’s gone from Master French trainer Andre Fabre to Newmarket via Dubai. Many of Fabre’s horses are ruined making the same journey.

    The only way Treve can be rated as anything other than an exceptional Arc winner is if she was the only one of the 17 runners to run to form. :wink:

    value is everything
    #483125
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8281

    Steve,
    When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.

    Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.

    What form line has been diminished since the Arc?

    Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.

    Last years Arc was trailed as a classic renewal. I didn’t think so and that is why I felt it wise to go for

    Orfevre

    . Just because he was well beaten doesn’t make it a great Arc.

    Horses such as

    Intello

    ,

    Al Kazeem

    ,

    Ruler Of The World

    ,

    Flintshire

    and

    Leading Light

    were all put forward as potentially top class rivals and were tipped in some camps. Of those only Leading Light has done much to catch the eye this year and he is clearly a stayer who I didn’t think would trouble the judge at Longchamp. I don’t think Ruler Of The World was a good Derby winner, Flintshire has never impressed me the way he has some judges and Al Kazeem was well past his sell by date by the time Roger Charlton put him into more races than he said he would.

    You can choose to believe what you want from the race and I will make my own deductions from what I saw.

    Nobody said it was a "great Arc", but it was one of the best winning performances. ie Had Treve not taken part Orfevre would’ve been no more than an average Arc winner…

    You mention many horses Steve, but Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire and Leading Light have all been rated as being below form in the Arc. ie

    Treve is NOT rated on any of their runnings

    . Or to put it another way, whether they took part or not does not matter to the rating given to Treve. Only a minority of horses run to form in any race.

    The only horses that ran to form/improved are Treve, Orfevre, Intello, Kizuna and Penglai Pavillion. None of the other runners past or previous form matter. So, what have the horses

    in this paragraph

    done to reduce Treve’s rating?

    Treve didn’t just beat Orfevre, she beat him by

    5 lengths

    . Therefore, the rating put up by Treve was exceptional. Orfevre came in to the race with top class Japanese form, an unlucky 2nd in the previous race and having won his European prep easily. Then (what you don’t say is) Orfevre then won his only subsequent race before retired to stud. Winning the Group 1 Arima Kinen by no fewer than

    8 lengths

    … From Win Variation, who went on to be beaten by only a neck in another Group 1. Timeform give Win Variation’s two performances the same rating.

    The only horse you mention that Treve’s Arc winning performance rating has anything to do with is Intello. But how the !"£$ can Intello "done much to catch the eye this year", when he was packed off to stud immediately after the Arc. Beaten a total of

    5 1/4 lengths

    by Treve in to 3rd. Beaten only

    1 3/4 lengths

    by Olympic Glory with another

    short head

    to Moonlight Cloud over an admittedly (possibly) inadequate mile. Intello had earlier won the French Derby by

    2 lengths

    .

    4th was Japanese Derby winner Kizuna. Had won his slowly run European prep from English Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Other performances you don’t mention Steve are Kizuna’s subsequent runs. Won a Group 2 with plenty to spare by 1 1/2 lengths after the Arc. Then (remembering he was beaten

    7 1/4 lengths

    by Treve) beaten only a

    1 length

    in another Japanese Group 1.

    5th place Penglai Pavillion hasn’t done much for the form since, but he’s gone from Master French trainer Andre Fabre to Newmarket via Dubai. Many of Fabre’s horses are ruined making the same journey.

    The only way Treve can be rated as anything other than an exceptional Arc winner is if she was the only one of the 17 runners to run to form. :wink:

    How long did it take you to rake through all that?

    How do you mean nobody is saying it was a great Arc? All we heard about beforehand was that how deep a race it was.

    Of course Intello hasn’t had the chance to boost the form. What I am saying is that we didn’t get the chance to see how good he might have been over a mile and a half had he stayed in training.

    You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form. I don’t think Flintshire is great and Ruler Of The World is so good that he is 33/1 for the Arc this year.

    You can say certain horses didn’t run to form or you can argue that they may have been overrated initially. I said before the race that I thought Flintshire was overrated and The Grand Prix De Paris form has been rank since.

    You rated Treve as exceptional and that is your opinion to hold. It was one race and she has now been beaten twice. Race odds compiling experts have her at 6/1 for the Arc now and I think she needs to prove them all wrong to be considered the exceptional horse she was hailed as about 30 seconds after passing the post in front last year.

    Good luck with your bet on her but she is not for me.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #483137
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    • Total Posts 8281

    The trainer has said it wasn’t the ground that was to blame and that the horse’s action was not quite right.

    It was also pointed out by Ms Head-Maarek that the travelling over from France may have been a factor and that fillies can change from 3 to 4 years of age.

    Opinions vary of course and I even read someone say Treve has enhanced her reputation this year :shock:

    Racebets have Treve at 5/4 fav for the King George VI QE but that looks a dodgy bet

    to me with Frankie having stated that the plan could be a summer break and then brought back for the Arc.

    Magician is 5/1 for the same race and surely makes more appeal, all things considered?

    Racebets have woken up and smelled the coffee, Treve is now 2/1 for the race.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #483247
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25897

    Of course Intello hasn’t had the chance to boost the form. What I am saying is that we didn’t get the chance to see how good he might have been over a mile and a half had he stayed in training.

    You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form. I don’t think Flintshire is great and Ruler Of The World is so good that he is 33/1 for the Arc this year.

    You can say certain horses didn’t run to form or you can argue that they may have been overrated initially. I said before the race that I thought Flintshire was overrated and The Grand Prix De Paris form has been rank since.

    You rated Treve as exceptional and that is your opinion to hold. It was one race and she has now been beaten twice. Race odds compiling experts have her at 6/1 for the Arc now and I think she needs to prove them all wrong to be considered the exceptional horse she was hailed as about 30 seconds after passing the post in front last year.

    Good luck with your bet on her but she is not for me.

    Steve,
    If form analysts had rated Ruler Of The World and Flintshire as running to form in the Arc, then they could have given Treve a far greater rating than they actually did. So get it through your head that Treve’s Arc rating (by BHA, Timeform, Raceform or me) had

    to do with Ruler Of The World or Flintshire. So whatever you or I may or may not think of those two horses does

    NOT

    matter.

    So I take it you can NOT come up with

    RAN TO FORM

    in last year’s Arc that deminishes Treve’s Arc rating. :lol:

    With Treve possibly injured it is hardly surprising bookmakers are fielding against her for both King George and Arc, even with her 3 year old/Arc form being still the best around. How likely a horse is to run… and how likely it is to run to its best – has as much to do with an ante-post price. If it were suddenly announced Frankel was coming back in to training and entered in the Eclipse, would you expect bookmakers to offer an ante-post price similar to they did in his pomp?

    value is everything
    #483255
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 25897

    How long did it take you to rake through all that?

    How do you mean nobody is saying it was a great Arc? All we heard about beforehand was that how deep a race it was.

    You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form.

    No, you can not "pick and choose" Steve, form analysts need to use logic in rating horses.

    Every year we hear of how wonderful this year’s Arc is, and whatever is thought beforehand does not matter; form must be logically gone through afterwards using lengths and lbs.

    I knew the form roughly and did not take a great deal of time to "rake" through.

    value is everything
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