Day 2 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes

[stevecaution]

The trainer has said it wasn’t the ground that was to blame and that the horse’s action was not quite right.

It was also pointed out by Ms Head-Maarek that the travelling over from France may have been a factor and that fillies can change from 3 to 4 years of age.

Opinions vary of course and I even read someone say Treve has enhanced her reputation this year

Racebets have Treve at 5/4 fav for the King George VI QE but that looks a dodgy bet

to me with Frankie having stated that the plan could be a summer break and then brought back for the Arc.

Magician is 5/1 for the same race and surely makes more appeal, all things considered?

Racebets have woken up and smelled the coffee, Treve is now 2/1 for the race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Gingertipster]

Of course Intello hasn’t had the chance to boost the form. What I am saying is that we didn’t get the chance to see how good he might have been over a mile and a half had he stayed in training.

You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form. I don’t think Flintshire is great and Ruler Of The World is so good that he is 33/1 for the Arc this year.

You can say certain horses didn’t run to form or you can argue that they may have been overrated initially. I said before the race that I thought Flintshire was overrated and The Grand Prix De Paris form has been rank since.

You rated Treve as exceptional and that is your opinion to hold. It was one race and she has now been beaten twice. Race odds compiling experts have her at 6/1 for the Arc now and I think she needs to prove them all wrong to be considered the exceptional horse she was hailed as about 30 seconds after passing the post in front last year.

Good luck with your bet on her but she is not for me.

Steve,
If form analysts had rated Ruler Of The World and Flintshire as running to form in the Arc, then they could have given Treve a far greater rating than they actually did. So get it through your head that Treve’s Arc rating (by BHA, Timeform, Raceform or me) had

to do with Ruler Of The World or Flintshire. So whatever you or I may or may not think of those two horses does

NOT

matter.

So I take it you can NOT come up with

RAN TO FORM

in last year’s Arc that deminishes Treve’s Arc rating.

With Treve possibly injured it is hardly surprising bookmakers are fielding against her for both King George and Arc, even with her 3 year old/Arc form being still the best around. How likely a horse is to run… and how likely it is to run to its best – has as much to do with an ante-post price. If it were suddenly announced Frankel was coming back in to training and entered in the Eclipse, would you expect bookmakers to offer an ante-post price similar to they did in his pomp?

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

How long did it take you to rake through all that?

How do you mean nobody is saying it was a great Arc? All we heard about beforehand was that how deep a race it was.

You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form.

No, you can not "pick and choose" Steve, form analysts need to use logic in rating horses.

Every year we hear of how wonderful this year’s Arc is, and whatever is thought beforehand does not matter; form must be logically gone through afterwards using lengths and lbs.

I knew the form roughly and did not take a great deal of time to "rake" through.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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