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Treve was unbeaten as a 3yo and on her seasonal appearance this year was a short-neck second to Cirrus Des Aigles who as we know took the Coronation Cup at Epsom recently.
This horse deserves a lot of respect but could be tested to the limit by Mukhadram and Magician.
I can’t see anything that looks like it has a chance other than these three. Hopefully they will all line up and we will be in for a treat.
….could be tested to the limit by Mukhadram and Magician.
Treve’s performance in winning the Arc is light years ahead of anything those two have ever done. If she’s anywhere near her best, she’ll annihilate this lot.
Treve
should win if anything like the same form as in the Arc. Stable in awful form at time of reappearance.
Magician
has been disappointing this season. Seemed to win well at Chester on soft ground so can’t have that as a valid reason.
Mukhadram
is a good horse and has his conditions, but needs to step up on his best form, must have had injury problems to have been out for so long.
The Fugue
is imo the main danger, real top class at her best (bit inconsistant). However, in previous years best has come later in the year.
Dank
is imo under-estimated, improving to win two races away from the gaze of British punters. Then given a lot to do in Dubai when 3rd in Duty Free. Could be another Stoute older horse improver. With three apparent no hopers in an 8 runner race 14/1 each way looks worth taking if not already on Treve.
Value Is EverythingIs it the end of a great 3 year-old?
Treve was nowhere near her best today. I’d like to see her back on 2m4f before making any decision.However I’m half disappointed as The Fugue showed how strong she is. She’s five now but she has still many things to do this year. What a year John Gosden is having!
Treves’ major asset is stamina. She’ll be better over twelve furlongs with cut in the ground. The Fugue was magnificent today.
Treves’ major asset is stamina. She’ll be better over twelve furlongs with cut in the ground. The Fugue was magnificent today.
Treve never moving with her usual fluencey. May be something amiss, may be the ground. Firmer than anything she’s encountered before and the Arc was run on a soft surface. Trainer is in a bit better form now, but still not firing on all cylinders this season. Too soon to write Treve off, but has some questions to answer now.
Value Is EverythingIs it the end of a great 3 year-old?
Treve was nowhere near her best today.I’d like to see her back on 2m4f before making any decision.
However I’m half disappointed as The Fugue showed how strong she is. She’s five now but she has still many things to do this year. What a year John Gosden is having!
2m4f? wow that’s a big step up
We were told at the start of the year that Treve had had an engine fitted over the winter. Now we have watched Frankie get beaten on her twice.
I don’t like the excuses being trotted out now. They knew the trip and probable ground beforehand and must have thought she was good enough to cope with both.
For my money Treve’s performance in the Arc was way ahead of what she had done before and is clearly way ahead of what she has done since. Timeform had her as the best horse in the world.
Last year’s Arc was touted beforehand as being the best since Dancing Brave’s year but I didn’t agree with that. Perhaps she was overrated a bit and needs soft ground to show anything like that again. As I said back at the time I wasn’t overly excited about Treve beating Wild Coco and that is why I went for Orfevre in the Arc.
6/1 Treve now for the Arc and it is a little ironic that the 5/1 didn’t last, being replaced by a bigger price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve,
When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.
What form line has been diminished since the Arc?
Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.
Value Is EverythingI got this right in opposing Treve but totally wrong in siding with Mukhadram. Haggas is one of the better trainers but I reckon along with Hanagan they made a complete mess of the tactics. The horse didn’t need a pacemaker. In all likelihood he would have got a relatively easy lead and been able to stretch them from the front. As it was the horse was exposed as lacking a change of gear and Hanagan exposed as a second division jockey yet again.
2m4f? wow that’s a big step up
Indeed. But I’m not sure if she will get the chance to run in the next Ascot Chase for instance. Joking aside, I’m not too much familiar with imperial units, and that is what happen when I mix 1m4f with 2400m! Sorry..
I don’t think her bad run today is due to a question of ground either. Her win in last year’s French Oaks over the same distance and the same ground was really impressive… She finished four lengths ahead of Chicquita (Irish Oaks winner) on that day.
2m4f? wow that’s a big step up
Indeed. But I’m not sure if she will get the chance to run in the next Ascot Chase for instance. Joking aside, I’m not too much familiar with imperial units, and that is what happen when I mix 1m4f with 2400m! Sorry..
I don’t think her bad run today is due to a question of ground either. Her win in last year’s French Oaks over the same distance and the same ground was really impressive… She finished four lengths ahead of Chicquita (Irish Oaks winner) on that day.
I don’t know why you call today’s run "bad". She’s run a good race in a cracking good field. The Fugue given her conditions and when on song is a very good group one filly.
Maybe some people are expecting a bit too much of Treve? Methinks Frankel has sopiled some people.
Steve,
When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.
What form line has been diminished since the Arc?
Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.
Last years Arc was trailed as a classic renewal. I didn’t think so and that is why I felt it wise to go for Orfevre. Just because he was well beaten doesn’t make it a great Arc.
Horses such as Intello, Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire and Leading Light were all put forward as potentially top class rivals and were tipped in some camps. Of those only Leading Light has done much to catch the eye this year and he is clearly a stayer who I didn’t think would trouble the judge at Longchamp. I don’t think Ruler Of The World was a good Derby winner, Flintshire has never impressed me the way he has some judges and Al Kazeem was well past his sell by date by the time Roger Charlton put him into more races than he said he would.
You can choose to believe what you want from the race and I will make my own deductions from what I saw.
You said that we are expecting too much from Treve and maybe you were after ranking her win an all time great performance. It is odd though that everything that is now being put forward as reasons for her under-performing, was well known before the races, yet she went off red hot odds on favourite both times.
On the banker thread you opined that Treve had a much better chance of winning than Kingman or Toronado. Now you are saying we may have to accept that Treve needs certain conditions or may not have trained on.
I am just asking whether she might just have been overrated based on one performance?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It may be pure coincidence but all her less than brilliant performances have also coincided with having Dettori in the saddle. Perhaps it was sonething of a blessing for punters that he wasn’t fit to ride in the Arc?
The trainer has said it wasn’t the ground that was to blame and that the horse’s action was not quite right.
It was also pointed out by Ms Head-Maarek that the travelling over from France may have been a factor and that fillies can change from 3 to 4 years of age.
Opinions vary of course and I even read someone say Treve has enhanced her reputation this year
Racebets have Treve at 5/4 fav for the King George VI QE but that looks a dodgy bet to me with Frankie having stated that the plan could be a summer break and then brought back for the Arc.
Magician is 5/1 for the same race and surely makes more appeal, all things considered?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve,
When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.
What form line has been diminished since the Arc?
Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.
Last years Arc was trailed as a classic renewal. I didn’t think so and that is why I felt it wise to go for
Orfevre
. Just because he was well beaten doesn’t make it a great Arc.
Horses such as
Intello
,
Al Kazeem
,
Ruler Of The World
,
Flintshire
and
Leading Light
were all put forward as potentially top class rivals and were tipped in some camps. Of those only Leading Light has done much to catch the eye this year and he is clearly a stayer who I didn’t think would trouble the judge at Longchamp. I don’t think Ruler Of The World was a good Derby winner, Flintshire has never impressed me the way he has some judges and Al Kazeem was well past his sell by date by the time Roger Charlton put him into more races than he said he would.
You can choose to believe what you want from the race and I will make my own deductions from what I saw.
Nobody said it was a "great Arc", but it was one of the best winning performances. ie Had Treve not taken part Orfevre would’ve been no more than an average Arc winner…
You mention many horses Steve, but Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire and Leading Light have all been rated as being below form in the Arc. ie
Treve is NOT rated on any of their runnings
. Or to put it another way, whether they took part or not does not matter to the rating given to Treve. Only a minority of horses run to form in any race.
The only horses that ran to form/improved are Treve, Orfevre, Intello, Kizuna and Penglai Pavillion. None of the other runners past or previous form matter. So, what have the horses
in this paragraph
done to reduce Treve’s rating?
Treve didn’t just beat Orfevre, she beat him by
5 lengths
. Therefore, the rating put up by Treve was exceptional. Orfevre came in to the race with top class Japanese form, an unlucky 2nd in the previous race and having won his European prep easily. Then (what you don’t say is) Orfevre then won his only subsequent race before retired to stud. Winning the Group 1 Arima Kinen by no fewer than
8 lengths
… From Win Variation, who went on to be beaten by only a neck in another Group 1. Timeform give Win Variation’s two performances the same rating.
The only horse you mention that Treve’s Arc winning performance rating has anything to do with is Intello. But how the !"£$ can Intello "done much to catch the eye this year", when he was packed off to stud immediately after the Arc. Beaten a total of
5 1/4 lengths
by Treve in to 3rd. Beaten only
1 3/4 lengths
by Olympic Glory with another
short head
to Moonlight Cloud over an admittedly (possibly) inadequate mile. Intello had earlier won the French Derby by
2 lengths
.
4th was Japanese Derby winner Kizuna. Had won his slowly run European prep from English Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Other performances you don’t mention Steve are Kizuna’s subsequent runs. Won a Group 2 with plenty to spare by 1 1/2 lengths after the Arc. Then (remembering he was beaten
7 1/4 lengths
by Treve) beaten only a
1 length
in another Japanese Group 1.
5th place Penglai Pavillion hasn’t done much for the form since, but he’s gone from Master French trainer Andre Fabre to Newmarket via Dubai. Many of Fabre’s horses are ruined making the same journey.
The only way Treve can be rated as anything other than an exceptional Arc winner is if she was the only one of the 17 runners to run to form.
Value Is EverythingSteve,
When there’s a chance of a reoccuring foot problem that might keep her off course/retired; it’s not surprising she’s been eased by bookmakers despite the Arc being a top class performance.Seems strange to me that you went for the previous year’s moral winner Orfevre in last year’s Arc last year – he beats everything else in the field in exactly the manner you’d expect… And yet you want to dismiss the form for no reason.
What form line has been diminished since the Arc?
Horses are not machines. May be she needs more precise conditions to reproduce that effort. May be we will in future need to accept Treve hasn’t trained on, she isn’t overly big.
Last years Arc was trailed as a classic renewal. I didn’t think so and that is why I felt it wise to go for
Orfevre
. Just because he was well beaten doesn’t make it a great Arc.
Horses such as
Intello
,
Al Kazeem
,
Ruler Of The World
,
Flintshire
and
Leading Light
were all put forward as potentially top class rivals and were tipped in some camps. Of those only Leading Light has done much to catch the eye this year and he is clearly a stayer who I didn’t think would trouble the judge at Longchamp. I don’t think Ruler Of The World was a good Derby winner, Flintshire has never impressed me the way he has some judges and Al Kazeem was well past his sell by date by the time Roger Charlton put him into more races than he said he would.
You can choose to believe what you want from the race and I will make my own deductions from what I saw.
Nobody said it was a "great Arc", but it was one of the best winning performances. ie Had Treve not taken part Orfevre would’ve been no more than an average Arc winner…
You mention many horses Steve, but Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire and Leading Light have all been rated as being below form in the Arc. ie
Treve is NOT rated on any of their runnings
. Or to put it another way, whether they took part or not does not matter to the rating given to Treve. Only a minority of horses run to form in any race.
The only horses that ran to form/improved are Treve, Orfevre, Intello, Kizuna and Penglai Pavillion. None of the other runners past or previous form matter. So, what have the horses
in this paragraph
done to reduce Treve’s rating?
Treve didn’t just beat Orfevre, she beat him by
5 lengths
. Therefore, the rating put up by Treve was exceptional. Orfevre came in to the race with top class Japanese form, an unlucky 2nd in the previous race and having won his European prep easily. Then (what you don’t say is) Orfevre then won his only subsequent race before retired to stud. Winning the Group 1 Arima Kinen by no fewer than
8 lengths
… From Win Variation, who went on to be beaten by only a neck in another Group 1. Timeform give Win Variation’s two performances the same rating.
The only horse you mention that Treve’s Arc winning performance rating has anything to do with is Intello. But how the !"£$ can Intello "done much to catch the eye this year", when he was packed off to stud immediately after the Arc. Beaten a total of
5 1/4 lengths
by Treve in to 3rd. Beaten only
1 3/4 lengths
by Olympic Glory with another
short head
to Moonlight Cloud over an admittedly (possibly) inadequate mile. Intello had earlier won the French Derby by
2 lengths
.
4th was Japanese Derby winner Kizuna. Had won his slowly run European prep from English Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Other performances you don’t mention Steve are Kizuna’s subsequent runs. Won a Group 2 with plenty to spare by 1 1/2 lengths after the Arc. Then (remembering he was beaten
7 1/4 lengths
by Treve) beaten only a
1 length
in another Japanese Group 1.
5th place Penglai Pavillion hasn’t done much for the form since, but he’s gone from Master French trainer Andre Fabre to Newmarket via Dubai. Many of Fabre’s horses are ruined making the same journey.
The only way Treve can be rated as anything other than an exceptional Arc winner is if she was the only one of the 17 runners to run to form.
How long did it take you to rake through all that?
How do you mean nobody is saying it was a great Arc? All we heard about beforehand was that how deep a race it was.
Of course Intello hasn’t had the chance to boost the form. What I am saying is that we didn’t get the chance to see how good he might have been over a mile and a half had he stayed in training.
You can pick and choose what form you think is good and who hasn’t run to form. I don’t think Flintshire is great and Ruler Of The World is so good that he is 33/1 for the Arc this year.
You can say certain horses didn’t run to form or you can argue that they may have been overrated initially. I said before the race that I thought Flintshire was overrated and The Grand Prix De Paris form has been rank since.
You rated Treve as exceptional and that is your opinion to hold. It was one race and she has now been beaten twice. Race odds compiling experts have her at 6/1 for the Arc now and I think she needs to prove them all wrong to be considered the exceptional horse she was hailed as about 30 seconds after passing the post in front last year.
Good luck with your bet on her but she is not for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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