March 4, 2008 at 21:53 #148450chloedMember
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typical chav reply scallyMarch 4, 2008 at 22:12 #148454AnonymousInactive
- Total Posts 84
I think Kauto will win. If not, Denman looks next best. But hang on, neither of those represents any value. What’s the next best? Exotic Dancer. What’s it’s price? Anything upto 16s…..
BrianMarch 4, 2008 at 22:13 #148455TuffersMember
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He’s some background on Dave Nevison for you:March 4, 2008 at 22:13 #148456scallywag76Member
- Total Posts 280
Just appealing to your baser instincts.March 4, 2008 at 22:31 #148463GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 28008
Chloed, This is how I believe Dave Nevison sees the Gold Cup.
Kauto Star beat Exotic Dancer under a length at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. That was the stiffest test of stamina KS has faced (3m in a strongly run race on soft going) and is the closest ED has got to KS. Although the Gold Cup is 3m2f, last years race was slowly run on good going, so less of a test of stamina and ED did not get a clear run there either.
KS did beat ED by further in the King George but that was when Jonjo’s horses were under a cloud, o.k. they still aren’t exactly in form. Also ridden differently that day, up with the pace, where as he is usually held up. ED is better than that.
So if as expected there is a strong pace in this years Gold Cup, making it a good test of stamina. Exotic Dancer could (at his best) beat Kauto Star if Paul Nicholls Brilliant horse fails to stay the trip.
If Denman’s owner Harry Findlay has anything to do with it, his horse will try to make it as stiff a test as possible. It will be difficult for his jockey to get the fractions dead right. Going too quick could let in ED. There is not much between ED and Denman on form anyway, although the latter could yet improve further.
Dave Nevison is not saying Exotic Dancer has a better chance than either Kauto Star or Denman, just that ED’s chance has been under estimated by the bookmakers, at around 14/1 it is worth a bet.
At Evens Kauto Star needs to have a better than 50% chance to be worth a bet.
At 6/4 Denman needs a better than 40% chance to be worth a bet.
At 14/1 Exotic Dancer only needs to have a better than 7% chance to be worth a bet.
You see Chloed there are reasons for Dave Nevison talking rubbish.
Gingevalue is everythingMarch 4, 2008 at 22:32 #148464ZamorstonParticipant
- Total Posts 1135
Love the two articles there Tuffers, great reads, had to laugh at the second to last paragraph in that first link.
Just for the record, I watched the preview late last night and was very interested in the views of Dave Nevison. I thought in every race he assessed, he gave very good reasoning behind his selections (and reasons why he was against other horses) and clearly knows the game very well.
I’ll be watching with interest next week to see how his picks go on and I’ll probably be on a few of them too.March 4, 2008 at 22:33 #148466
Dave talks value, to most people that’s rubbish.March 4, 2008 at 22:33 #148467carvillshillParticipant
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I’m with you Chloe- I disagreed with him on almost every race, so one of us is going to have a bad Festival!March 4, 2008 at 22:35 #148468GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 28008
Dave talks value, to most people that’s rubbish.
That’s why he makes a profit and you ….value is everythingMarch 4, 2008 at 22:38 #148469
I disagreed with him on almost every race
..but not the Champion Hurdle carvills, which from a financial viewpoint is all I care about at this stage.March 4, 2008 at 22:39 #148470
value is everything GingerMarch 5, 2008 at 00:08 #148479sberryMember
March 5, 2008 at 00:38 #148484LetsGetRacingMember
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So your basis for throwing abuse at Nevison, Chloed, is the supply of information from your obviously misinformed husband and the fact that he’s prepared to, for betting purposes, ignore the 1/8 about Kauto Star and Denman?
Complete and utter rubbish (and wishing Exotic Dancer on almost seems worth it in light of your promise).
I’m not overly keen on the man myself, having previously found his RAFO musings to be rather self-indulgent and awash with aftertiming, but he is a professional above all else and so acts as such in his analysis of any race.
It is more fool us that we let affection for certain horses and our own pre-conceived ideas interfere with our betting.March 5, 2008 at 01:56 #148486GlennParticipant
- Total Posts 1981
Looks like blasphemer Nevison’s been rumbled. Talking about value is cheap, writing about it and appearing on TV talking about it is easy. Actually getting real value and the money in the bank is the tricky part.
Let’s take Chloed’s hubby’s firm, totesport bookmkaers, as a case in point. Nevo thinks he identitifies value prices with them all the time. Yet if you read his book (those who haven’t burnt it already) you’ll find that he hasn’t had a single winning bet with them in recent years.
Do not listen to false prophets!March 5, 2008 at 07:14 #148497the welsh wizardMember
- Total Posts 352
I agree with you chloed. The man is a scruff. However, having seen him in a jacket and tie, where he looked like he was off for a regular court appearance, I am now prepared to put up with his jumpers. What I can’t forgive is the fact that he always looks yellow, with brown bags under his eyes, like a panda photographed on sepia, and with the bleary-eyes of someone who can’t get up in the morning.
Hang on, isn’t this a racing forum?
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