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If you really believe Raven’s Pass ran up to his subsequent Group 1 winning level of form, especially taking into account his WFA allowance, then how do you explain Bankable’s two subsequent defeats when dropped in class?
I’m surprised no-one has mentioned Lady Gloria. She was the horse that beat Bankable in the G3 race he “should” have won at Goodwoood, when 8/13 fav. It was the one loss that did seem a little disappointing. Now, I’m not sure if even that defeat can hold down his form.
Lady Gloria came out at the Arc meeting last weekend and finished 5th in the G1 Prix de l’Opera (btn about 4 lgths). Beaten by four 3yo fillies getting the wfa allowance, all of whom had previous G1 placed form, & victories at G2/G3 level or above. It was a reatively quick winning time as well.
Good post, Colin.
I too was disappointed to hear that he got beaten by Lady gloria…and another poster mentioned that he did not battle hard that day.
I could not give *ankable many more chances, but he is not due his last at the saloon just yet.
Zip
- Total Posts 17716
Here’s a thought.
It is clear this thread will probably be brought back to the top every time Bankable runs now. It would be useful if Bankable fans, namely TDK, came on here in advance of the race to explain why they still think he is capable of winning a Group race and why this particular event will fall to him.
That would clear up any confusion over the relative merits of the horse’s ability.
After all I came on here and stated he is a lay before today’s race.
I think he’ll win this one. A straight 9f on genuine good ground should be right up his street.
He has Kirklees and possibly Bronze Cannon to worry about, but I’d say it’s his best chance since the race he won before the Hunt Cup.Bronze Cannon is my EW bet for this one. I think this one has a lot of potential and can show how good he is.
I normally back Bankable but will be giving him a miss this time in favour of Tranquil Tiger for the win. If he goes off as quick as last time he wont be caught and with this a furlong shorter than his last dead-heat victory I think this could suit well.
C’mon the Tiger!
Hi Firefox,
Wow – you’re really on the ball with *ankable..it’s like you’re almost waiting for his next run
I’ve had a quick shoofty at the form and I’d rather back him than lay him.
Sure, 3/1 isn’t great, but if he drifted to 4/1 I’d be tempted to do him EW.
Bottom line is, I think he’ll have too much toe for his field.
If he does find one too godd (again!), I think it is time to wave goodbye to my belief in the beast…(he’ll be most upset
)Let battle commence!
Zip
I would not back Bankable today, would not lay him either. I know that sounds a bit of a cop-out.
They say Cumani is good at selecting races & laying out horses for them, he doesn’t seem to be very good at identifying "easy" pattern races for Bankable. This is a another strong G3, over half the field have ratings of OR110 or above.
I don’t know, but I’m guessing the target for the entire year was in June at Ascot. It’s now mid October, he’s been on the go since April (or before). Sooner or later you’ve got to gamble on this horse having had enough for the year.
Imo, there are other interesting horses in here, a couple of fresh looking 3yos getting wfa & allowances, like the Tregoning horse, the French one and Kirkless. Also some older ones that have had a busier year, but look very solid.
If Bankable is going to win this, he’s got to run very close to his best. I’d like to think that even people who really support Bankable would agree that it’s not absolutely certain he’s a OR117 horse. That’s top end, based on his form, isn’t it.
Think I’d take a chance with one of the 3yos
Apologies for straying slightly off track, but i must respond regarding Hawk Wing "patently failing to see the Derby trip out". Without High Chapparral, Hawk Wing wins the Derby by 12 lengths on G/S.
Don’t worry PC, anyone who wishes to defend Hawk Wing is fine by me. The ideas that he wasn’t the best horse in the 2000gns that year, or that he didn’t stay the Derby trip, imo are just silly.
I’m not sure, but maybe he was just too brave for his own good in the Derby. He did go a bit astray after that. Only managed to scramble home in one G1, finish 2nd in a couple of other G1’s and destroy a Lockinge field as a 4yo !
Bankable has the best form in the race and is a strong contender, but there are a few interesting horses against him today – notably Mawatheeq and Sahpresa.
That would probably put me off backing him at 3-1, but it certainly wouldn’t change my view that he is good enough to win at this level. That is all this argument has been about (rather than anyone thinking he is a value bet every time he runs.)
I’m going to abandon Bankable today (watch him sluice up now) on value grounds mainly due to the extra furlong.
The horse I think will run a big race is Yaddree – 5th in the Cambridgeshire over the CD, he finished 1st of the group that stayed in the centre. The ground shouldn’t be a problem either.
The extra 1f shouldn’t be his downfall, for me it’s that he likes to have a bit of a think about it. I thought Kirklees was too big at nearly double Bankable’s price but I’m having a battle with my conscience as to whether I can actually back a Godolphin runner.
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Can you bet on a horse to be 2nd?
On betfair it’s called place betting.
Rather than proving you to be correct with each defeat, Bankable’s consistency in these races is actually strengthening the argument that he is well up to winning at this level
Today’s race wasn’t weak by Group 3 standards at all imo and Bankable beat all bar one of them – including 4 horses that have won at Group level and others at Listed level.
If you think he has to win a Group race before he can considered good enough to win one, then there is little point in arguing…. but all logical formbook assessment suggests he is easily good enough.
…and for the record I don’t think there is anything wrong with the horse’s attitude – he showed a decent level of detemination to get on top of Tranquil Tiger in the closing stages today.
You are judging whether he is "overrated" purely in terms of whether he has won or not – a very blunt and ineffective way in which to assess ahorse.
If you had bought the horse on the spreads every time he had run this season, you would be ahead. Does that mean he is underrated perhaps?
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