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Spirit River, has won at Chelt (a positive all the same) and was travelling very well in the Totesport where he blundered bady three out and came to a standstill. Best bet of the week IMO
I’m with jmfitz on this one, even if it does go against all the stats. He was AP favourite for the most competitive 2m hurdle of the year (so you have to guess they thought he was well-in, I’d suggest you normally need to be 7-10lb+ ahead of the handicapper to win the Totesport). Runs off the same mark in this, & the step up in trip may also help.
Not sure you can ever be confident in a race like this, but I’d be confident Spirit River was a well-handicapped horse, which I suppose is half the battle.
Inevitably a maximum field of 28 declared, with 19 horses eliminated.
I always thought the best handicapped horse entered was Shadow Dancer (JP McManus, J J O’Neill), but he has ended up at #29 and therefore the first horse eliminated.
Ironically, if the same owner/trainer combination had not declared City Theatre, who seems to have very little chance, Shadow Dancer would have made it as the last in.
Top weight is Chicago Grey, bottom weight is Halla San – weights rise 4lbs as a result.
AP
Well, well, I have just checked the confirmed decs and find that Shadow Dancer is now in the field as #28 and Halla San has disappeared, neither declared nor eliminated.
I’ve been monitoring the BHA website decs for several years now and I’ve never seen anything like this before. I can only assume that Halla San was declared in the expectation that he’d be eliminated and they’d get their entry fees refunded, but when he got into the field, someone contacted Weatherbys and reversed the decision.
Shadow Dancer is to be ridden by Gerald Quinn claiming 10lbs – not a rider I know much about. Can anyone provide his background?
AP
I’ve just had a bit of a look at the race and Takeroc seems an interesting contender at a big price. Second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle off the same mark (on good ground)in 08; has won over two and a half miles in France but hasn’t been seen beyond 17f over hurdles in this country; he’s been highly tried and looks to be crying out for further.
I’m sure someone was banging on about Eleazar on here either last season or the one before. I think it might have been Bulwark, but I may be wrong. Anyone know if he was injured when he fell last time out, or whether he’s been waiting for better ground?
The overall level of form required to win this would be higher than he’s achieved, but it seems an odd race to throw him back into. I’d certainly give him a squeak and I like Lucy Wadham as a trainer.
I like Sir Harry Ormesher (good record on left handed tracks) but I’m slightly concerned with King’s form – having said that Bensalem looked like he was running alright until that fence got in the way. He’ll like the ground as well.
I’ve been looking at Eleazar, and I agree about Lucy Wadham.She did really well at the Southwell all bumper card, which is why I’ve been looking out for her runners. He doesn’t look good enough and he’s also a bit old for this race as well, but there’s not much value and a Corals bet will pay out on 5 places. Shadow Dancer looks pretty good [does the claimer take his weight below 10st, or is that still the minimum weight he will carry?] but 5 year olds don’t have a very good record. I like the look of Lake Legend, but he’s got a lot of weight.
- Total Posts 17716
Mamlook
for me – at 20/1 the each way bet of the meeting.
Eleazar 1pt e/w, 1pt win @ 50-1
Right type for the race should like the ground, has been laid out for it and not 1st time he’s won when appearing unfancied in the betting
Hampshire Express 1pt e/w 1pt win
Again, the right type for the race and should have ground in his favour.
Shadow Dancer 2pt win @ 14-1
Ground and trip in his favour, low weight, cant be discounted
Mamlook
for me – at 20/1 the each way bet of the meeting.
Previous course form dreadful?
On reflection I’m ok with putting a line through Shadow Dancer, McCoy to a 10lb claimer, can’t have even been sure he’d get in the race, scraped a win against a moderate rival on heavy lto, and is a 5yo.
Think I’m going to go with Eleazor ew and Lake Legend. This race is a bit of an inbetween distance. Some of these horses have been entered for races later in the week at a lesser distance [Shadow Dancer] or longer [City Theatre]. Lake Legend and Eleazor seem to have form over 21f.It’s taken me 2 hours to decide on one horse thats too old and one with too much weight. Time to get some sleep, perhaps? I decided against the Mullins horse, but can’t for the life of me remember why……[that’s both Mullins horses]
I’m going to take a chance with
City Theatre
in this.
Impressed in a novice event at Ffos Las on his latest start when beating two decent, previous winners (the third 14L back). The talented Richie McClernon takes 3lbs off.
Agree with previous opinion that
Hampshire Express
is tailor-made for this type of contest. Could find the necessary improvement needed to take a hand. Travels well.
- Total Posts 17716
Shadow Dancer and City Theatre should give Richie and Gerald Quinn a good ride round but if either wins Jonjo might have a heart attack
Potentially Shadow Dancer would be the better of the two but surely this is too big ask for a very inexperienced horse who incidentally just sneaks in here, so and ideas of him being prpared for a massive gamble by JP look highly unlikely.
City Dancer certainly wouldn’t be anywhere good enough to win this even with a stone less on his back IMO. Not a horse I like to be honest.
Quantitativeeasing is the choice of AP here and has gone through a typical Henderson build up for this "Let’s go to Kempton and sharpen him up". The fact he was pipped at the post round there has very little meaning and you can have a good bet he’ll be there or there abouts today.
Deutchland ran really well the other day in his first run since Feb and obviously this has been his target for a long time. He’s a very experienced horse which is a major plus and he he won’t be fussed by the big occasion. He’s pretty exposed but he doesn’t seem to be off too bad a mark and with Ruby on board he must be the one they all have to beat.
However tips are a plenty for this but one horse who is said to be fancied big time is Michael Flips. He was well fancied for the Supreme last year having impressed AP big time at Kempton and was his intended ride for some time before being claimed by JP to ride Ainama.
He was very disappointing last time out but that came only 7 days after he won the Lanzarote on heavy ground.
He’ll be nice and fresh for this and unlike may of these won’t be inconvienenced by the ground. He gave Fairyland when she was at the top of her form a real drubbing on it at Kempton last season.He got abig weight but then he’s a big price and will be 40-50 on the machine and around 8 for aplace I’m having a bit on him and a few quid on Ruby.
Michael Flips and Deautchland for me
plus a little RFC for fun.
Two points about Shadow Dancer at Leicester. First the ground wasn’t heavy or even close to it – Timeform rated it good to soft and that fact that the selling hurdle on the card was run in a time only 6 secs slower than standard confirmed their view.
Second, the ‘moderate’ horse he beat was running off 114 that day, but would have been running off 135 in the Coral Cup if connections had declared him.
I’m inclined to agree that a 5-y-old with an inexperienced jockey is unlikely to score here, but keep him in mind for the handicaps at Aintree.
AP
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