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First of all Istabraq…………my opinion on his best run was actually his last Champion hurdle win.Escorial you point to how close some got but the reason for that is simple…………….Swan was travelling hard held on the bridle up to the last and took 5 lenghts out of the field from the last to the line.Imagine what he would have done to the field if he had sent Isty on from the bend like he usualy did.<br> As for Hor La Loi…………………won well today but again that was not the same horse today that Valiramix beat simple as that.Maybe I was unfair saying the horse is inconsistant but in no way does this provide a boost to Valiramix.Valiramix beat a shadow of the Hor La Loi we saw today.
Yes we’ll find out soon enough. The manner of that win in the Bula was certainly impressive. I’m a bit surprised Ned Kelly’s win is regarded as somehow inferior to Valiramix’s. To my eyes, the race in Ireland seemed more competitive than the Bula, which was a poor renewal really. If only it had been run at Cheltenham. The Bula we got was a bit like the race Rodock subsequently won.
The formbook cannot tell me whether Valiramix acts on quick ground. The very little evidence suggests he doesn’t, but then that was a long time ago and he has matured out of all recognition apparently. The formbook doesn’t tell me whether he acts round Cheltenham. Again, given the time that’s passed it’s better to disregard his poor run in the 2000 Triumph, although you couldn’t draw any encouragement from it.
So what else is there? There’s the early and sustained confidence of the yard, which not surprisingly people have latched on to. But very little in the book, except the Bula. And a leap of faith.
Istabraq and probably Landing Light can handle a blistering gallop downhill on fast ground at the back end of a fast-run race. I’m told Ned Kelly could struggle (something to do with Be My Native’s offspring and Cheltenham).
Can Valiramix? Looking forward to finding out.<br>
<br>regarding hll as a note he has been tonge tied in his last 2 runs which may account for some improvement in his running or as to why he ran like he did in the bula
regarding his bula run raceform postmark and topspeed have hll running some 20lbs below his xmas hurdle and ascot run.
not withstanding that it was an impressive victory by valirimix and he must be in with a chance
however there is still the questions of the ground and track to awnser to and how he will act in large fields. and what he finds off the bridle.
there is a lot of confidence eminating about landing light recently and whilst it is going to be close i still think this horse will be englands leading hope he has beaten valirimix in a grp 1 before acts at cheltenham ran a good race at kempton which is not really his track showing an excellent turn of foot and will be more suited by cheltenham , he ran very well last time he was there, he was also a good flat horse so if he is close at the last his turn of foot should seal it.
"Why do you still say that Hors La Loi must have had his one off day against Valiramix?"…………common sense tells me that that was not the same horse.
Hors La Loi could certainly over turn form with Valiramix (as he has shown things that Valiramix hasn’t – fast ground, Cheltenham form) and may well be able to over turn form with Landing Light, although that will be a hard task looking at the form book.
Hors La Loi has already been second in the Champion hurdle and it is obvious he’s best on good or faster ground and handles Cheltenham very well.
When people talk of Istabraq’s Champion hurdle form being only average (which it does seem to be) they must take into account that this year’s Champion hurdle is average. Why does a beating of Bilboa or The French Furze or Geos read any better than Istabraq’s form? <br>Valiramix and Landing Light’s form is close – they’ve both beaten each other, they’ve both beaten Rooster Booster, they’ve both beaten The French Furze. They’ve both beaten Hors La Loi (so has Istabraq-although Hors La Loi is capable of beating LL and Valiramix with improvement). None of this is mind blowing form.
That’s a question directed at you lot – why does LL or Valiramix’s form read better than Istabraq’s?
(i’ve just had a change of heart from what I was going to say – looking at Istabraq’s Champion hurdle form of 2000 – LL and Valiramix’s form might actually read a fair bit better – Blue Royal (149 rated) was third (beaten 4l’s and a neck) in that Champion hurdle: delve through the form book and check out LL and Valiramix’s form compared to Isty’s – I was going to say that Isty’s form was better…but perhaps it isn’t after all)
This is where reading a strick line on the form book is decieving.Escorial you say Istabraq was being ridden along before the turn in at Cheltenham2000.True……………………for a round 2 strides and he immeadiately came back on the bridle and Swan held on to him till the last.To take 5 lenghts out of Blue Royal(who Henderson rated so highly) from the last hurdle to the line without getting a hit from his stick was so impressive.His acceration was simply awesome that day.Maybe he didnt hit his top rating but I really do think he could have won by 10 lenghts that day.When I hear Dean Gallagher say yesterday that Hor La Loi is only 4lenghts inferior to Istabraq at his best makes me laugh.The form book says it is four lenghts but for me it is so much more.
esc
when you say valirimix is superior by some considerable  way i presume you mean thatn hll rrather than landing light.
 i think we are guessing as to how much more valirimix  could have found  and also as to how much he would find in a true race  as all said and done valirimix had everything in his favour that day  which he may not  have at cheltenham (or indeed any other  grp 1 race)
and it is really this race that valirimix credentials rest on <br>as landing light has put  it together in 4 decent races
 using hll  in that bula as a firm example  of valirimix  worth  may be  misleading to some extent  as he was probably  eased towards the end  when all chances of victory  and third prize money was assured. the addition of a toungue tie to hll  may also offer some explanation  to that race as well.
 i am sure i have read u say, i apologize  if it was someone else, that french furze has no decent form on  soft ground  cant check the fact  as i am at work,  if that is the case  then really this bula race  must  be questionable
sir talbot useless<br> hll   running well blow form<br> the french furze not acting on ground
 it would seem  on paper  a cake walk for valirimix
  tff  was murdered in this race by valirimix  but rodock did the same to him and was then beaten by  bilbao and rodock  would not be considered a championship horse ÂÂÂ
  i know  as u say we only have these 2 horses to work on which dosnt help  but i still think valirimix has a bit to prove  id like to see him win in a larger field  and given a trst as to how much he  actually can find  under pressure.
 re flat form  they were both quite good have justr had a look on the rp site i would say they seem quite similar .
in fact looking at their profiles they are quite a similar type but he going and track in my view will bring more improvement from ll  and that will swing it in his favour.
only 18 days to go.<br>
(Edited by prince regent at 11:55 am on Feb. 22, 2002)
Must disagree with you here Esc. Istabraq was cantering all over the field in the 2000 CH and won with bags in hand plus remember this was a championship race run at breakneck speed. Imagine if it had been a 5 runner affair run slowly in the initial stages Istabraq would have destroyed the field every bit as impressivley as Valiramix did this season. The question is how much has Isty gone down hill since that day.
Regarding that 2000 CH – the fact remains, Istabraq didn’t go on and win by 10 lengths, he won by 4 and Ashley Park (second EVER run over hurdles) managed to get 4th. I’m not as convinced about that race as I was this morning!
What would be interesting to know is what Henderson feels about Landing Light compared to Blue Royal in terms of hurdling ability.
Istabraq’s 1998 and 1999 CH wins look better on paper than his 2000 win.
As Jjimps said – how far down hill has he gone since then? <br>I don’t think very far personally but it’d be nice to know how far Landing Light/Valiramix/Hors La Loi could beat Blue Royal over hurdles if they raced this season. (Hors La Loi having already beaten BR a neck in 2000). <br>Sadly we won’t get this but i’m sure Nicky Henderson knows how good Landing Light is compared to Blue Royal over hurdles and he has a good line to Isty’s 2000 CH form.<br>
If Valiramix was 8/1 or longer I might start taking an interest. At 7/2 I’d say he is the worst value in the race, bearing in mind the conditions of the race.
No, it means that I think 7/2 is a poor assessment of Valiramix’s chances. Every horse has its chance, and at 8/1 even I would consider backing him.
Now it gets really boring answering questions like, "But if you don’t think a horse will win, why back it?", and all I can say is this: racing is unpredictable; fancied horses don’t always win.
Let’s just leave at this Esc. You’re a form man. I’m a value man.
A form man relies on his assessment of a horse’s form working out; a value man relies on identifying horses whose chances have been underestimated by the bookmaker/market.
I may be a value man, but that doesn’t mean I don’t take form seriously, or come to my own conclusions about which horse on form is likely to win a particular race. As a form man, I wouldn’t expect you to back Valiramix for the Champion Hurdle regardless of its price.
Hopefully the form works out often enough for you to get ahead, and bookies get their prices wrong often enough for me to get ahead.
But in answer to your question, if a bookmaker offered 8/1 about Valiramix, I’d say he was underestimating his chances. The bookmakers who are currently offering him at 7/2 or worse are, in my view, overestimataing his chances. I reckon his chances lie somewhere in between – something like 11/2.
Talking of chances, I would put Istabraq and Landing Light ahead of Valiramix and possibly Ned Kelly as well. But I haven’t had a bet in the race and don’t expect to.
right then
1st off esc i think you left the form book behind some while back..LL was better then val last year and rodock has shown that slamming TFF is NOT CH form therefore your faith in val being better than LL this year is PURELY BASED ON HYPE which is not what i thought you were about
2) hll’s run really surprised me. as rob has finally discovered :) the CH where hll finished 2nd was far from top class and from where i sit his run on thursday was actually better then his run there…and before you all go saying that beating a handicapper blah blah blah it seems there is so much hypocrasy about what is and what is not required re handicaps to win the CH. brother joe was touted as a potential CH horse as was marble arch AND ll last yr ALL from lower OR’s than copeland. blue royal had an OR of only 149 when running close behing HLL so quite why 156 isnt enough to go very close or even win is illogical
if indeed it turns out that the thu race is as solid as it looks then i have a new regard for HLL. i now rank him above valiramix and somewhere close to LL and will be looking closely at prices on the day
4) finally it was nice to hear that m pipe was annoyed he hadnt entered copeland in the CH :) even he makes mistakes
How do, Escorial.
I’m sorry, but use of formlines/stats will not invariably lead to value unless you factor price into your final analysis. If someone as intelligent and discriminating as you does not factor price into your analysis, I’d be amazed.
Of course your form study will throw up horses that go off at value prices, and Streamstown is a very good example. But not invariably, surely. Don’t you ever find yourself saying, "Well, my analysis suggests X is the likeliest winner, but at Y price I’m not prepared to back it."
Yes, Ned Kelly’s run in the Bumper is a big negative. I’m allowed to say, aren’t I, even though that form is more than 12 months old. Here we have a race in which the principals have been so lightly raced, and you question the wisdom of taking account of last season’s form?
The wonder of this game is that no two people look at form/value in the same way.
hi esc,
re the rodock and tff form…hunters tweed has shown in handicaps this year that he should be rated about 118 hitman has shown he isnt at the level he was when finishing behind geos last season, as the group finish in the novice hurdle showed yesterday and and rating of ~120 would be much closer the mark…using these figures TFF now gets a mark of about 130 for that race..making it obvious why rodock was able to skip away. noe TFF also gets a mark of about 130 for the irish race based on joe cullen. <br>in the LL / TFF race simply gifted (shown to be about 130 in handicaps) finished 6L behind TFF showing e ran to 136 in that race and yes landing light wasnt that impressive on the day but i KNOW how good LL can be based on last years form and he needs a stronger gallop anyhow
so when we at last get to the val /TFF race i have no doubt hll ran below his best and sir talbot hasnt shown much of late so one has only got TFF to use as a guide. The above would suggest that he ran somewhere in the low 130s which means val hasnt necessarily improved at all from last year.
thats my view anyway..ORs can be very misleading as ive said before and i put solid big race handicap form above 4 runner conditions races anyday
right..im done :)
Sorry, I thought "invariably" meant "always". That’s some system you’ve got there; no wonder you always sound so pleased with yourself!
all his wins were impressive enough with the last being a fair way ahead in terms of figures.
he hasnt achieved the same figures this year yet but given a stiffer test ive no reason to see why he cant impreove again
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