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Agree Mike. I think they have to be sensible. This horse could come back and win next year’s Gold Cup.
I just wonder if McManus is at a point in his life where he is thinking about his legacy. To have only the second horse to win the Gold Cup and Grand National in the same season (and the first for about 90 years) might tempt him.
It’ll depend on the ground , if it’s not a bog then let’s face it it’s actually a easier race than yesterday , Cromwell doesn’t sound keen but he’ll do as JP wants , I wonder if GDC would have a go at Aintree one year ….
“if it’s not a bog then let’s face it it’s actually a easier race than yesterday”
It’ll be harder than some people think. Shorter timeframe between the 2 meetings this year the extra week lost, beating GDC in a Gold Cup will have taken a fair bit of effort and then being asked to beat 33 horses over 4 miles 2.
Agree the National is an easier race than the Gold Cup nowadays. The ground does not usually become that heavy either.
My main concern would be the short turnaround, as Mike says. Even though he won convincingly yesterday, the Gold Cup can often leave its mark.
True CAS but he was kicking out leaving the winners enclosure yesterday so I don’t think the race left much of a mark , if he does turn up then he’s a ridiculous handicap blot
I appreciate they may be tempted given they have spectacularly pulled the wool over the handicapper’s eyes (again). I just think we need to be cautious about suggesting it was not too hard a race. It would have taken a huge effort yesterday to pull so far clear of a good horse.
Watching the replay this morning, I think it is clear Galopin Des Champs was not in love with the ground. He also did not jump particularly well.
He was a bit awkward over the first fence. Pitching on landing over the water jump on the first circuit put him on the back foot slightly. And he was lucky to get away with it at the ditch at the top of the hill (took off far too early).
Having said all that, I agree with Ginger’s assessment (Ginger has probably fainted with shock at reading that). Did Townend have to ride him so far back? Was he really struggling to go with the pace that much?
Earlier in the thread I speculated that connections might be nervous. I am not saying that is the only reason why he lost. That would be unfair to the winner. But this was the most important ride of Townend’s career. He didn’t bottle it and it wasn’t a terrible ride – but I do have to wonder if he was overly cautious in the early stages and got himself into a disadvantageous position.
Amongst the Gold Cup also rans:
It seems ridiculous that Rich Ricci bottles out of running a legitimate contender in the Champion Hurdle but is happy to run an 80/1 no hoper in this race on a manifestly unsuitable track and ground.
And at least the Ahoy Senor Fan Club can now finally give it a rest about him being a Gold Cup contender. Aintree might be interesting though…
I don’t think it mattered , it didn’t matter how he ride yesterday the winner ( helped by a great ride ) had him covered , Walsh shadowed him and then attacked at the right time , if he had been further forward Walsh would still have stalked him , the winner put 3 or 4 lengths between them pretty quickly , he actually won pretty snug and I don’t think he had that hard a race , time will tell
Ricci just wanted to be in the paddock , that horse needs a break and some heavy ground next winter , Ahoy Senor needs a hurdle …
Ground just too lively for galopin. Just not fluent on it at all. Didnt finish I his normal fashion. We will never know if it was soft going whether he would have won. Townend seemed philosophical about it. Maybe could have been more aggressive but doubt it would have made much difference.
Mickey, I’m glad the ground was good as a horse should have to come through a bit of adversity to win 3 Gold Cups.
The ground was very slow for 2 years running which was Ideal for Galopin.
The aim is to have nice spring good to soft ground so he was extremely lucky to get soft twice in a row.
I think Bravemansgame gives him a hell of a race in 2023 on yesterday’s ground and I think had he been around in 2022, A Plus Tard beats him also.He’s a brilliant horse and an all time great imo but he’s definitely no Kauto Star. Not even close.
GDC will be back next year as a 10 year old , he looks a big price at this point esp considering the novices don’t look a vintage bunch , however I dont think Watson is being giving the plaudits he should …
GM,
I can’t see the Racing Post form these days. But the ground was not “very slow” for GDC’s first Gold Cup. If I remember rightly the time beat Standard by around 4 seconds. Therefore suggesting the going that day was more like proper good-soft. And if anything verging on Good ground rather than the official. Bravemansgame ran to his King George winning form.It was a massive performance from GDC to win that Gold Cup so easily. Maybe not up to Kauto Star (at his his verybest) but in the region of a Denman. GDC has not improved his form since that first Gold Cup. Hasn’t needed to, to win all those Grade 1’s since.
Value Is Everything“Do you really expect 10 year olds to win just as many races as 8 year olds?”
No and that’s been my point. You backed Protektorat. He’s 10. Fact To File is 8. He won. Champion Chase an 8 year old won. Gold Cup another of the younger brigade at 7 years old won.
My advise about getting a single aged horse on board as well was perfectly fair.
————————–Mike,
Do you understand percentages?
Please remember, when 6, 7, 8 and 9 year olds are the vast majority of runners in Grade 1 chases, then the vast majority of winners will be in that age group too.Fewer 10 year olds are able to show top class form – CORRECT…
Which is why FEWER 10 year olds run in the Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup…However, OF THOSE WHO DO ACTUALLY run in those races (who have proven themselves THAT very season of running to top class form)… Statistics proved 10 year olds have a better strike rate than 8 year olds.
Look at the STRIKE RATES again:“In the Champion Chase:
2 of the 16 ten year old runners won the race, a 12.5% strike rate.
3 of the 36 eight year old runners won the race, an 8.3% strike rate.In the Ryanair:
1 of the 17 ten year old runners won, a 5.9% strike rate.
3 of the 57 eight year old runners won, a 5.3% strike rate”.ie RIGHT NOW, those who are going to be 10 years old in next year’s race have less chance of getting there because they are more likely to be on the downgrade by next March. But of the ones that DO show their form in the lead up to the race and DO run… Statistics prove they should not be dismissed so lightly.
Yes, I backed Protektorat, but my other main bet (my biggest of the whole meeting if i remember rightly) was Fact To File.
I seem to remember having the same sort of debate when I backed Master Minded (who was said to be too young as a 5 year old) won the Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre too old… And Neptune Collonges was said to be too old for the Grand National too.
Value Is EverythingIt’s also worth remembering that not all races have stayed the same , no point looking at stats from the 70s/80s/90s for say the GN , race is now set up to entice graded horses and the fences help the younger less experienced horses which wouldn’t have run in days gone by , GDC maybe 10 next year but if he turns up in form on his ground it wouldnt stop me backing him if he looked the value
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