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“What is a horse like Ahoy Senor doing in such races?”
Some of the forum members still backing him ExRubylight, they can’t resist ;o)
“Ginger the fact of the matter is it’s not been a good look for horses older than 9 in recent times. I never said don’t back them as people can back who they like, i just advised having a younger one onside as well as they are, more often than not, the ones coming in”.
No it is not a “fact”.
Why do you not judge these things by taking into account the number of each age group to run?
33 runners were 10 year olds. 93 were 8 years old. Do you really expect 10 year olds to win just as many races as 8 year olds?“Fact” is a greater percentage of all 10 year old runners have won those races than the percentage of 8 year old runners. imo That’s just a coincidence. But those are the facts.
Value Is Everything“What is a horse like Ahoy Senor doing in such races? Just leading and veering to his right at almost every single fence”.
Why not?
For sure Ahoy Senor is a poor jumper and extremely inconsistent away from Aintree, but:.The form of his half length second to Gerri Colombre in last year’s Bowl…
Or his 1 1/2 lengths second to Shishkin in the 2023 Bowl…
Or the 1 1/2 lengths victory giving 3 lbs to Sounds Russian in the 2023 Cotswold…
…And had looked to be in with a good chance in the 2024 Cotswold before his saddle slipped.
Or Arguably his 3rd to Minella Drama giving lumps of weight away in the 2024 Old Roan…Would all have been form good enough to see Ahoy Senor take a good third spot today.
…And had had a wind op’ since Windsor.His form has been better left-handed and today was the first time I can remember Ahoy Senor jumping right-handed. So I hope he’s ok.
Value Is EverythingWinner was impressive, but I’m kinda sad, don’t think I’ll still be alive for the next 3-in-a-row
“Some of the forum members still backing him ExRubylight, they can’t resist ;o)”
I’ve taken notice, Mike. They’re still very passionate about him.
Don’t why the Bowl form GC relevant is….
“No it is not a “fact”.”
Yes it is.
“Do you really expect 10 year olds to win just as many races as 8 year olds?”
No and that’s been my point. You backed Protektorat. He’s 10. Fact To File is 8. He won. Champion Chase an 8 year old won. Gold Cup another of the younger brigade at 7 years old won.
My advise about getting a single aged horse on board as well was perfectly fair.Yes HDLG i was on the 9 year old ew. A bit of a shame that he wasn’t able to get the 3 in a row.
Plenty older horses have run well in the GC , Seemorebusiness placed at 13 if I remember rightly , Kauto and Denman also ran well , you can get bogged down in stats , the GC is the ultimate test , you need to have everything , yesterday the winner prob handled the ground better and was primed for the day , next season on winter ground GDC despite being 10 will prob have a decent chance of reversing the form in some races , Mike if Chelt 2026 was ran on good to soft and GDC was there would you not back him ?
“Primed for the day” is one way of putting it. But when you consider how this horse was smuggled into last year’s Kim Muir and hacked up and how this season his connections have clearly had an eye on his handicap mark for the Grand National, has he been run on his merits?
No he hasn’t CAS but as I said it you watch the prev race then he was given let’s say a gentle ride , it was the same with Marine Nationale , these 2 were both prepped for this week and this week only
HDLG not disputing they can’t run well it’s whether they can win at the Festival, that’s been the big challenge. Regarding GDC in 2026 it is difficult to see him reversing the form because the 2025 winner also likes ease in the ground and will only be 8. There’s likely to be others in the mix too.
The winner loved the better ground , as for younger ones i d say this year’s bunch look a weaker bunch , you couldnt touch Ballyburn , would you back GDC on his ground next year Mike ?
That is what I don’t like about it, HDLG. I think he has been given more than one quiet ride this season. Then McManus supplements him and all of a sudden he hacks up. Not a good look, in my opinion.
I think Marine Nationale is slightly different because his season fell apart last year. I can understand them taking a more considerate approach. In contrast, the Gold Cup winner won a competitive handicap from a mark that made the handicapper look like a fool and then won a Grade 1.
And if i owned Inothewayurthinkin i wouldn’t run in the National. I know Cromwell hasn’t been keen on it as he has been thinking about the horse for the longer term knowing he had a good one, so it depends what JP wants to do.
Understand that CAS but as I said the eye was def drawn to him on that last run , Cromwell hasn’t the ammo of Mullins or Elliott so he had to maximise his opp , lol Mike should you back GDC next year on his ground ..
“would you back GDC on his ground next year Mike ?”
Unless the race falls apart as to who turns up, it’s unlikely. I prefer Inothewayurthinkin out of the 2. Has shown he goes on all types of ground, has the age advantage, i was against him on Friday coz of goodish ground and trainer concern about it but it made no difference.
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