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After doing some pretty basic home made sectionals
i’ve found that Faugheen’s run from the 2nd last hurdle last year to the winning line was 1 sec slower than the champion hurdle. Given that the novice carried 3 lb less than Jezki etc i really wouldnt be taking anything like the stupid prices on offer at the moment. Also people crabbin TNO’s jumping ought to have a look a Faugheen jumping the 3rd last. 5/4 – not in these trousers.After doing some pretty basic home made sectionals
i’ve found that Faugheen’s run from the 2nd last hurdle last year to the winning line was 1 sec slower than the champion hurdle. Given that the novice carried 3 lb less than Jezki etc i really wouldnt be taking anything like the stupid prices on offer at the moment. Also people crabbin TNO’s jumping ought to have a look a Faugheen jumping the 3rd last. 5/4 – not in these trousers.Faugheen had covered five furlongs further than Jezki by the time they reached the second last so you’d expect Jezki would have finished quicker surely?
Regarding Faugheen’s jumping, it was desperate at Cheltenham last year. Yet the two times he’s encountered decent ground over two miles (Punchestown and Kempton) his jumping was at least as good as The New One’s or Jezki’s. He blundered the last at Kempton but that was when he was steadied up with the race in the bag. Ruby asked him for a big one in the Neptune and the horse nearly went into orbit. The faster he’s gone the better he’s jumped, which must bode well for the Champion Hurdle.
No one seems to give The New One any credit for almost winning a champion hurdle when losing the best part of 8 lengths in the middle of the race when pretty much stopped in his tracks. THAT WAS SOME PERFORMANCE!!!
I don’t think there is any reason to compare the two horses and attempt to argue which will win. The market has them in the right place, no one will get rich on the coin toss, however 3-1 on a coin toss is where the value lies if you believe it will be between these two.
Reality is Fugheen has not raced against the other market leaders. He’s not necessarily avoided them, he came over for christmas. But who could say he should be short?
For what it is worth, I hope The New One wins. Mullins makes my skin crawl.
No one seems to give The New One any credit for almost winning a champion hurdle when losing the best part of 8 lengths in the middle of the race when pretty much stopped in his tracks. THAT WAS SOME PERFORMANCE!!!
I don’t think there is any reason to compare the two horses and attempt to argue which will win. The market has them in the right place, no one will get rich on the coin toss, however 3-1 on a coin toss is where the value lies if you believe it will be between these two.
Reality is Fugheen has not raced against the other market leaders. He’s not necessarily avoided them, he came over for christmas. But who could say he should be short?
For what it is worth, I hope The New One wins. Mullins makes my skin crawl.
I think plenty of people have said they thought The New One was unlucky last year and might have won without the interference. My own first impression was that he
was
unfortunate.
Having watched the race numerous times since, I have changed my view on the matter. What changes it for me is that The New One was hampered by being tangled up in Our Conor’s legs briefly but was not stopped in his tracks as has been said. He does lose momentum but it’s very briefly and he regains his stride quickly.
I have estimated that he lost about six lengths but a couple of good judges on the forum have said it was nearer five and one of those people is a big The New One supporter. Whatever the margin actually was, The New One was able to work his way back into it without much extra exertion from the jockey, such was the pace at the relatively early stage of the race. It would undoubtedly have been harder on him had the incident occurred at a stage of the race where they were really tanking on and there was less time left to make up the lost ground.
For me, there is a clear phase of the race where the first four in the field go on and The New One can’t go with them immediately. One of Timeform’s team referred to him being caught flat-footed at one stage. This is the problem I have with a horse described as being flat-footed, yet also possessing a sharp turn of foot. Maybe it’s just one of racing’s mysteries, like the time I read Martin Pipe saying that Granville Again was a horse who stayed 3 miles better than he stayed 2 and a half miles. That remains one of the great unexplained pieces of logic for me.
I don’t wish to knock The New One at all. I followed him throughout his novice season and maintained faith in him after he lost to At Fishers Cross, backing him for The Neptune. To me, that Neptune performance remains his finest hour and I still can’t fathom how The New One didn’t quicken past Zarkandar in The Aintree Hurdle when he was poised in the perfect position to do just that.
This year’s Champion Hurdle will mark the first time The New One has raced against horses in the same ball park as him since last year’s renewal. He’ll need to be at his best, and better than what was probably his best performance this season in The International.
It is fair comment that Faugheen hasn’t faced the top dogs this season either but he has faced a decent rival in Purple Bay and dismissed him easily. It could be that Hurricane Fly has been mopping up grade 1 races at Jezki’s expense, with the Mullins stable in full knowledge that they have a stronger candidate waiting to be unleashed.
Ruby Walsh will leave his choice until nearer the time, out of common sense and due deference to a great Champion in Hurricane Fly but it’s well documented which choice people feel he will make.
I hope Faugheen wins it and wins it well. Willie Mullins is a man I know little about on a personal level but it has to be said he seems pretty good at training these jumpers and I would love to see a horse step forward and become the natural replacement for Hurricane Fly, as the one they all have to look up to. The New One beating Jezki a neck or vice versa would leave the whole group looking much of a muchness.
OK Faugheen’s odds are short enough but he’s unbeaten and people who are going on about his jumping are clutching at any straw they can find to convince themselves the horse has flaws. Faugheen may not win it but he’s unbeaten, seems to have improved visually for the drop in trip, and if there is a horse in the field who may just come up the hill with some daylight behind him, it’s surely Faugheen.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice response.
It really is individual interpretations.
I regard myself as a pretty good judge as well and would say five lengths at the very least lost and more when he has to accelerate whilst a the field is at decent cruising levels. It is still a tough ask on the back stretch to make distance, they are hardly crawling, I agree he would had no chance in other areas of the race.
None of this takes the shock factor for the horse and any minor physical pain or issues. Obviously anything major he’d have been pulled up or tailed off.
The jumping issue is not a big thing and both horses seem to be similar in throwing a sketchy, top scraping whack which doesn’t seem to affect either. The new one is certainly better jumping at speed.
For me, like many the turn of foot phrase is misinterpreted. He just has more stamina and runs at his top speed which is a tad slower than some of the speedier types, for a longer period. So when a horse gets caught "one footed" he is simply outpaced, especially in a 2m grade 1 at the festival. However the nature of the course and the faster pace then plays his stamina card and he flys home (turn of foot) with his stamina holding out over speedier types that are tiring. I do agree that Jezki and My Tent had rant each other into the ground come the most visually impressive close at the death.
It is the above reason why Faugheen really could be a total monster, his top speed figures argue in his favour too. He tanks along and doesnt seem to get outpaced, he also has the neptune stamina.
For what it is worth I make Faugheen the slight favourite but I wouldn’t make them evens vs 3-1 which is why I am on TNO. I won’t make much either way as I refused to get on early in the season.
I hope one of them wins.
TNO wouldn’t have won regardless, they were going a comfortable gallop when he was hampered, he moved back in to position on the tail of MTOY and then had a good 40 seconds for a breather before they quickened.
At the third last he was 2-3 lengths from the lead, which quickly became 6-7 by the next and that didn’t change until the others started to weaken at the end. If that’s not being outpaced, or at very least slow to get going, I don’t know what is, you could see how he stayed on at the end that he wouldn’t have been tired when they quickened, he had plenty left.
There will be a good battle for second that I could see TNO winning if there is a little bit of give in the ground, but Faugheen could very well be 10lbs better than the rest and I look forward to finding out!
AP is 3 from 6 on Jezki. Geraghty 5 from 5. AP rode two poor races on Jezki last season, and today didn’t quite seem to make his mind up one way or the other. If you think your pacemaker ain’t going fast enough, not much point racing upsides him – you’re as well getting on with it properly.
Hard to see from the ATR replay the extent of the last flight error – it looked pretty serious. Whether AP was in any way to blame for it, who knows?
It does seem to confirm, to me, at least, that Jezki is no better than he was last season, and that does not look good enough to win another CH, unless the ground and a jockey change make a major difference.
Arctic Fire looks as though he’ll be well suited by the hill, and with TNO short of pace and possibly ailing, we look set for a couple of outsiders perhaps following Faugheen home.
As for the charade from the normally no-nonsense Ruby as to what he’ll ride, it’s time to say, at least, that unless something goes wrong with the favourite, that’s the one he’ll ride. I’m sure the Fly’s connections won’t expect anything else.
Hurricane Fly is a fantastic animal whose achievements will live long after him and after many of us. But perhaps his biggest claim to fame is that he is the greatest course/ground specialist in history.
Jezki undefeated when Good is in the going description or when Geraghty is up
Much depends on how fit Harrington can get him but i make this a four horse race. Faugheen, Jezki, TNO and Purple Bay.Hurricane fly
wins for the 26th time and those who never lose faith in the horse could have had 9’s in running.What a day to be at Leopardstown.Wow! No chance of winning at Cheltenham though,’
Jezki’ proving frustrating now!
Only with McCoy on and Harrington is going through another quiet period.
Makes enough last hurdle mistakes does AP. Probably beaten then but we’ll never know.
I reckon Hurricane Fly had Jezki covered. He had closed him down and McCoy was getting after Jezki quite seriously before they reached the final flight. It looked to me that Hurricane Fly kept on pretty well from the final flight. The way it has gone between the two this season Jezki would probably have assumed that this was what was supposed to happen anyway.
Sometimes jockeys get on particularly well with a horse but I doubt McCoy is causing the horse to lose races. The stable have had two winners this month from 20 runners, which is quiet compared to some but the 10% strike rate is higher than they had during February, March and April of last year. Jezki was one of only 2 winners for the Harrington stable in March last year, from 30 runners, so it might not be a case of simply believing that they will be firing on all cylinders when the tapes go up for the first race at this year’s festival.
The extra worry is whether Hurricane Fly has two horses ahead of him in Faugheen and The New One, whom Jezki has yet to encounter this season. If that
is
the case then the reigning champion will have a fair bit on his plate, regardless of who is on his back.
I see Faugheen as more of a hindrance for the Fly than Jeski – Ruby will be on Faugheen and set a decent pace, something which has found out the Fly at Cheltenham on a couple of occasions.
There’s also a decent chance that Geraghty will ride Purple Bay and i’ll be very happy with that
Jezki undefeated when Good is in the going description or when Geraghty is up
Much depends on how fit Harrington can get him but i make this a four horse race. Faugheen, Jezki, TNO and Purple Bay.As I pointed out earlier, Barry Geraghty hasn’t ridden Jezki when facing Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown. AP McCoy has had to do so on four occasions and the ground was soft (at least in places) all four times. I think that makes comparisons unfair when Hurricane Fly has never lost at the track.
If we look at AP McCoy aboard Jezki, when not facing Hurricane Fly on softish ground at Leopardstown, his record is 3/3.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What is not in doubt to my mind is that Jezki had a strong claim to be counted as good as, if not better than H Fly at this time last season (given his two placings that were ‘unlucky’ or poor rides – you choose).
A year on and I could no longer claim this. And I don’t think the Fly has improved.
I expected Jezki to have come on a bit from last year. Either he has not done so, or his trainer is preparing him differently. I think he’ll finish in front of HF at Cheltenham, but I’d like to have seen him win at least one before the festival.
I was very confident he’d beat MTOY last year. I think he’ll have an awful lot more on his plate with this year’s fav.
1- The New One
2 – Jezki
3 – FaugheenRuby to lead them a merry dance…Jezki to come up on his outside, and to everyone’s astonishment…ping the last for AP and move a length ahead…only for Sam and The New One to come tanking past to win going away by a length and a half, with 2 lengths back to Faugheen in 3rd and yet another Mullins banker turned over
1- The New One
2 – Jezki
3 – FaugheenRuby to lead them a merry dance…Jezki to come up on his outside, and to everyone’s astonishment…ping the last for AP and move a length ahead…only for Sam and The New One to come tanking past to win going away by a length and a half, with 2 lengths back to Faugheen in 3rd and yet another Mullins banker turned over
The lads been away for 18 months but comes back with a word perfect appraisal…Well said ‘Zamorston’.
Walsh will not cut Faugheen’s throat here. Ruby has a very good clock in his head and the horse doesn’t even have to lead. His cruising speed will have him up there but it will be effortless and even when it’s time to loosen the reins the horse will pick up with the minimum of fuss whilst the others will need to get to work just to hold position.
Welcome back Zamorston btw. Looking at your 1,2,3 I’d suggest Yorkshire’s championship title has gone to your head….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The bloke off the morning line picking holes in Faugheen.
‘He couldn’t go the pace with Blue Heron’
Why the foook would he want to.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The bloke off the morning line picking holes in Faugheen.
‘He couldn’t go the pace with Blue Heron’
Why the foook would he want to.What planet was that guy on?
Ruby’s hands never come off the back of Faugheen’s neck. When Blue Herons commits for home Ruby gives Faugheen a couple of nudges and he’s upsides Blue Heron very quickly.
I think we all saw how the two horses
finished
the race in relation to one another.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t know what planet he was on Steve but he couldn’t pick holes in a fishing net. I think he was expecting Faugheen to make the running even though Blue Heron went off with a jet pack up his arse. Like I said previous though Ruby has a good clock in his head and there’s no way he’ll go faster earlier than he has too. The bloke also said something about Purple Bay being over-rated.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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