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Couldn’t agree more, Steve, although my pocket is talking as loud as my logic. Since the Elite I’ve thought him much better than many gave him credit for. The ground and hill would suit him perfectly.
I’m not too dismayed in that I believe that something’s going to have to go wrong with Faugheen for him to lose.
Ratings are not infallible by any means and it is easy enough to argue that Purple Bay is a tad higher than he might be due. However, the official marks show that, at around this time last year, Purple Bay was rated 131 and now he is rated 161. That is more than two stones improvement and that, for me, is as good a reason to give the Champion Hurdle a go.
It is a near as certain as Christmas that he wouldn’t get close to Faugheen but it may yet prove that he was facing a problem that all horses will have when facing that rival. I don’t think it wise to fear one horse in this game and the obvious problem is where you do go with a horse who is rated in the too high for handicaps/ not quite top class region of the weights.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hmm, any reason for not running? Injury or not firing on the gallops? I could have seen him running into a place; strong gallop and the uphill finish would have surely suited.
I dont see how Purple Bay would have finished anywhere near the places…maybe a case to say he may run better on better ground, but he’s 8 lengths to make up with Faugheen….and theres 3 formlines through Bertimont…Zamdy Man and Rock On Ruby that says he has a lot to find with The New One too….I think 161 is a bit OTT personally…
I’m very happy with my ante post ew on Arctic Fire, but nothing would pelase me more than to see Sam win the race on TNO. A group of lads from our racing club have been following the horse right from the start and I still well up when I remember seeing Sam in tears last year. Hadn’t realised Faugheen hadn’t ran for ages. It put paid to Jezkis chance in the Supreme the other year [imo].
I dont see how Purple Bay would have finished anywhere near the places…maybe a case to say he may run better on better ground, but he’s 8 lengths to make up with Faugheen….and theres 3 formlines through Bertimont…Zamdy Man and Rock On Ruby that says he has a lot to find with The New One too….I think 161 is a bit OTT personally…
Depends how the race is run, if the principles go hammer and tongs from some way out it wouldn’t surprise to see an Arctic Fire or a Purple Bay (or a The New One
) run into a place.Hmm, any reason for not running? Injury or not firing on the gallops? I could have seen him running into a place; strong gallop and the uphill finish would have surely suited.
Trainer began hinting 3 or 4 weeks ago that he might miss it and ‘save’ the horse. What for, I don’t know. AP told him after Kempton that Cheltenham’s hill and better ground would be ideal. Now there are 8 left I hope Ferguson is kicking himself. The horse would have had a fine chance of earning a decent payout.
I’m very happy with my ante post ew on Arctic Fire, but nothing would pelase me more than to see Sam win the race on TNO. A group of lads from our racing club have been following the horse right from the start and I still well up when I remember seeing Sam in tears last year. Hadn’t realised Faugheen hadn’t ran for ages. It put paid to Jezkis chance in the Supreme the other year [imo].
Faugheen had exactly the same preparation last year Moe. Ran at Limerick on 28th December, 3 miles heavy ground, and then dropped back 3 furlongs on good ground at Cheltenham. He then went on to Punchestown and dropped another 5 furlongs in trip before thrashing Valseur Lido by 12 lengths.
Looking at ground, trip, gaps between races etc, I think you would clutching at straws to suggest Willie Mullins has dropped the ball in putting him here without another run first. He’ll either be good enough or won’t.
After all the entries and possibilities, dark horses and longshots there are only eight left in the race now and those who thought Faugheen wouldn’t be much less than 3/1 come the day are a million miles off target.
When will Ruby spill the beans?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The guys on TH have said that, as my bet is ante post I’ll get first 3. I hope that’s right as I was only backing AF to hopefully place.
…bit like claiming on insurance, the bookies always find a reason not to pay out if they can….
The guys on TH have said that, as my bet is ante post I’ll get first 3. I hope that’s right as I was only backing AF to hopefully place.
The each way terms will be whatever they were on the day you placed the bet. Even if only 3 run, you’ll still get third.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tempting fate with the phrase a bet to nothing, but Jezki ew at 5s is very appealing
Like myself, I am building several ew doubles around jezki at 6s….obviously having learned nothing from doing the same with poor our conor last year!
Something tells me that Ruby will be riding The Fly on Tuesday. He wouldn’t have too much to fear from Jezki or The New One in my opinion and I think Faugheen could be a bit over rated. We shall see…
The Mullins camp are certainly giving the impression that they don’t believe it’s nearly as sewn up as the punters think.
I think Ruby’s doing this out of politeness to the Fly’s owners. It’s like when you go for a job interview, but they’ve made up their minds who it’s going to be beforehand ‘oh, it was a very difficult decision etc etc’/
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think a lot of Faugheen fans are being disrespectful to both Ruby Walsh and Hurricane Fly and what they’ve achieved (even this season!)…..caught up in the hype too much I reckon….there’s no doubt the potential of Faugheen but he still has it to prove…
It’s a lot, lot harder decision than people are making out IMO….especially if the heavens open Sunday and Monday.
) run into a place.
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