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All i mean is i really fancy TNO for the champ hurdle.With him not been that impressive today i feel more people will lump on faugheen.Come race day i feel faugheen will set off evs,odd’s on and TNO will start between 7-2,4-1 and if some 4-1 becomes available i will have to top up again…todays race will have put TNO spot on for march 10th.
We knew the ground was going to be heavy today and I always hate it when connections and punters use it as an excuse
afterwards
.
Plenty of people said The New One would win easily today and the fact is that he wasn’t impressive.
What positives are there to take from it?
Nigel Twiston-Davies said they were running today, rather than take Faugheen on in The Christmas Hurdle because today’s race offered better spacing to Cheltenham. Surely with the longer gap to today’s race he should have been coming here pretty tuned up for his Cheltenham preparation race.
If they have left him short for today and run him on heavy ground, watching him struggle for fluency at his obstacles and making relatively hard work of putting far inferior horses to bed, you have to wonder what value there was in a race where the horse’s confidence at his hurdles can hardly have been enhanced and more work was expended than was expected beforehand?
From a strict ball park form perspective we can see that Purple Bay beat Bertimont further than The New One did and in easier fashion, yet that horse was put in his place by Faugheen, who won on the day in the manner people expected the Twiston-Davies horse to do today.
Cormack15 said on another thread to ignore The New One’s effort because he hated the ground but again I would question the value of running a horse on unsuitable ground if it is going to result in such a poor jumping performance?
With The New One’s record of making the odd howler, I would rather enhance his confidence than have watched that effort today. I think 7/2-4/1 is about the right price for him but others can wire in at the latter if they see it as good value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My point was he smashed his race at the festival. I shouldn’t have just used PA, he beat all of them well.
He smashed the Neptune off a slow pace. He takes far too much stoking up these days before he can hit top gear – they’ll leave him for dead in a fast run CH.
I’m not a knocker of the horse. I loved him as a novice. He’s won me a lot of money. But if he were mine, he’d be heading for the World Hurdle.
I’ve thought for a while too that he is perhaps developing some quirks. Although he travels, he looks lazy at times and can idle in front too. At the price, I’d be a layer – probably a place layer, at that.
The Elite Hurdle form is working out really well, and Bertimont’s performance today should finally settle Ferguson’s mind to running Purple Bay in the big one.
AP reported that the horse was run off his feet at Kempton and that he’ll be much better suited by Cheltenham (as the style of his Wincanton victory suggested).
If his improvement continues, PB could nick a place, and at 50s, is still a fair bit longer than he should be imo.
Kitten Rock looks a lively outsider; progressive, still 33-1 with Paddy Power
Yes, I saw Eddie O’Grady said he thought he was a champion hurdle horse – very unlike Mr O’G, in my memory, so I took a wee bit of the 66s this morning. Travels and jumps like lightning at times and should be well suited by the CH. Whether he’s good enough this year is a whole different matter, but O’Grady knows a good horse when he sees one…maybe next year will be his turn.
I liked The New One as a Novice and was on when he won the Neptune. I had one of my biggest bets on him next time when he was second to Zarkandar at Aintree and couldn’t quite pick him up in the closing stages.
I was disappointed that day and have had very little chance to consider a bet on him since then, due to restrictive odds.
The fact is, that in his last ten races, The New One has gone off odds-on and, usually, well odds-on on a whopping eight occasions. Notably, on the two occasions he wasn’t odds on he got beaten. In a nineteen race career The New One has been odds-on on eleven occasions and evens once.
Many people think he was unlucky in last season’s Champion Hurdle but sometimes horses can flatter when they have been hampered and are passing rivals who used their energy earlier than the horse who was forced to delay his effort. When The New One went to Aintree he was all the rage at 4/9 Fav to make up for his Cheltenham disappointment but he made heavy weather of beating Rock On Ruby and Diakali a head and a nose on ground that should have suited. He has won four times since, all at odds on and probably his best performance has been in beating Vaniteux, a horse Nicky Henderson has been forced to put in The Champion Hurdle simply because he has admitted the horse is a bit of a misfit who is marking time until he goes chasing, with the step up to two and a half miles not having helped him over hurdles.
Overall it is not a great portfolio of form The New One has assembled this season. You
can
only beat what is put in front of you but you should expect to do so in good style when that which
is
put in front of is so far behind you in the ratings. You can also only beat what turns up in the races you
choose
to put the horse into and the option was there to see where they stood with Faugheen
before
Cheltenham, but they chose to bypass that one and leave it to Champion before taking on horses of his own level.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t think The New One should have won last year, he would have been closer but the best horse won on the day. At the moment I’d say the Champion Hurdle is Faugheen’s to lose. Jezki is the main danger in my opinion. I think Walsh will have the favourite well clear jumping the last and The New One will fill the same position as last year.
He smashed the Neptune off a slow pace. He takes far too much stoking up these days before he can hit top gear – they’ll leave him for dead in a fast run CH.
I’m not a knocker of the horse. I loved him as a novice. He’s won me a lot of money. But if he were mine, he’d be heading for the World Hurdle.
I know he won over two and a half miles as a novice but he’s finished weakly in the last two runnings of the Aintree Hurdle and I’m not sure he’d get much further than two and half. Both runs were at the end of the season and the form could be taken with a pinch of salt, but I thought it worth mentioning all the same.
I agree that he seems to lack the cruising speed of the top two milers and you’d have to wonder how he’d fare against the likes of Jezki and Hurricane Fly in Ireland throughout the season. He’s priced for the Champion Hurdle as though he’d beat them every time but I have my doubts. Would have been great to see him aimed at the Irish Champion Hurdle next week.
Twiston Davies doesn’t sound so confident now.
After the horse won the international hurdle at Cheltenham he was saying they will sit behind Faugheen and pick him off late on. Now he is saying they don’t know where they stand with Faugheen.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Tommy, I don’t believe he’s lacking in stamina at the end of those Liverpool races. He idled last year and he did not put it all in against Zarkandar. He was quite young then, and I was happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I don’t think he relishes a battle, and I think connections realise this. Sam often tries to keep him wide when challenging. At Kempton against MTOY, he had no chance of avoiding a head to head tussle after his last flight blunder, but I’m convinced he does not give everything.
It might be a lack of heart, or laziness, although he sometimes carries his head to the right these days, and that, along with his jumping to the right, makes me wonder if there’s a physical problem. I’d always rather give any horse the benefit of the doubt when it appears to be shirking. I believe there are often ailments in horses that are never picked up.
Do you really think he won’t place? The field is largely disappointing. The market has it spot on. If he gets round he places.
Ignore the prep run yesterday and go back one race. He destroyed a good Cheltenham field. I really do love an over reaction. He’s only been out of top 3 once in his career.
My only concern is his jumping, he’s always clipped too many hurdles.
Sketti, he’s never been the best of jumpers, but past errors have tended to be with his rear legs, or an awkward landing. Yesterday was the first time I’ve seen him hit so many with his front legs. He just was not picking up his feet. It might be that he hates the ground and fears slipping, and that lack of confidence makes him want to not jump at all.
But something like that added to a horse going right at jumps can also point to the animal trying to avoid pain. If he’s hurting somewhere on his left side, like a human, he will try to avoid putting pressure on the hurt point. That’s why I’m also concerned about his increasing tendency to carry his head to the right at times.
It could also be a factor in his apparent laziness (to my eye, at least). He takes some persuading to get to top gear, and the worse the ground the lazier he seems. That might seem obvious – no horse is going to quicken as easily in bad ground as on good. But in the class he’s been running in lately, he really should be cruising past them at will.
Anyway, I’m speculating. But it’s always made sense to me that physical problems with some horses are never diagnosed because the symptoms of them only show under racing pressure – something they never experience at home.
Cue Card would be a classic case. The yard continue to insist that, based on homework, the horse has never been better – ‘he’s flying’, ‘we’re very confident’, ‘he’s 110%’. The fact that the formbook says otherwise is ignored because they want so badly for the horse to be everything he was.
TNO travels so well and exhibits the general traits of an honest horse, that I’m guessing there’s a physical problem somewhere with him. Whatever the truth is, I won’t be backing him. Good luck.
I’ve got a day off work so thought i would do sum chrltenham study.
Watching the christmas hurdle where faugheen was very impressive i think i may have spotted a little chink in his armour.Even though he won well enough i felt faugheen lost a bit off ground at each flight,because he dosen’t jump his hurdles fast and accurate all the time sometimes he spends a little time in the air costing him a bit off ground.He has a massive engine so it hasn’t been a problem so far as he has won easily enough,But a race like the champion hurdle and a 5-4 shot i want to be really confident i just feel in march he could lose some ground at his hurdles.
Now i know people thought the new one wasn’t impressive on satuarday i agree.But i’ve just watched the international and boy was he impressive.I know he didn’t jump well on satuarday but in the international he was low and fast at every hurdle (got a bit tight towards the last)..And then powered away from the last.
I’ve no doubt faugheen is a top class horse.But i think the new one will jump better with a quick pace come march and i think his sharp turn off foot jumping the last could be the major factor.
I’m another who doesn’t understand where this The New One turn talk is coming from. As Stevecaution said on another thread it must be the slowest reacting turn of foot in the game. In a fast run race I think he’ll get taken off his feet, as he did last year. He came under pressure and threw a jump well out to his right and this compounded the fact that he was unable to keep tabs on the leaders. When they straightened for home he ran on to great effect but at that stage it’s like Jezki and My Tent Or Yours were coming back to him as much as anything.
This is how I see the race playing out: When Faugheen kicks for home Jezki is the horse who has the stuff to go with him. I imagine he’ll be under pressure to follow Faugheen but he should put some distance between himself and The New One at this stage of the race, as he did last year. Whether he’ll be able hold off The New One for second probably depends on how early Walsh sets sail for home on the fav. It could easily happen that in his efforts to go with Faugheen, Jezki could tire late on. This is where something like an Arctic Fire or Purple Bay or Kitten Rock could snatch a place. While the big guns are going hammer and tongs I’m sure there will be plenty of jockeys happy to bide their time and see if they can pick up the pieces should it go pair shaped for some of those at the head of the market.
I don’t think either Jezki or The New One have a cruising speed to rival Faugheen’s and reckon The New One will be the first to crack.
The Current Champion hurdler
Jezki
runs against his old adversary
Hurricane Fly
in tomorrows Irish Champion hurdle,this will be their 7th consecutive meeting since Dec 2013.’The Hurricane’ always comes out on top on ground any softer than Good and tomorrows will be much the same so what chance has the ‘Champion’ got of beating the ‘Real Champion’?? The formbook says No chance.Granted good ground it would be a different story as last years Cheltenham and Punchestowns festivals confirm but could it be a case of ‘Jezki’ just proving he’s a better horse come spring and ‘Hurricane’ just a better winter one? I dont agree with that as ‘Hurricane’ has won in March/April time but out of his 25 victories only 4 have been on officially Good ground which proves he’s a better horse the softer it is.’Jezki’ has Good ground breeding by dual St leger horses ‘Milan’ and ‘Phardante’, and he has the latters head on him and battling qualities,so when he gets beat again tomorrow by the ‘Real Champ’ and both turn up at Cheltenham on good ground we’ll see a mirror image of last years performance……Except
The New One
will fly past both.
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