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I ended up with:
* Buveur d’Air (double with Altior 4/1)
* Sharjah 16/1 EWBuveur d’Air is drifting at the moment. Still think he can win this. I think he is capable of following Apples Jade and pass here after the last hurdle. Barry will have learned his lesson after the Kempton run. Can’t have Laurina as she has beaten nothing so far and has to prove her speed. Added Sharjah as an EW shot. Proven on soft, clearly an improving horse and suspect one of the big three will fail.
From my blog
At 40/1 Verdana Blue is a daft price for the Champion Hurdle. I can only imagine the bookies have taken trainer Henderson’s oft stated word that she must have good ground. Her record does not back that up. She ran the best race of her career last time on good to soft beating Champion Hurdler Buveur D’Air, her stable companion. Not only did she beat him but did so under a tender of ride, overtaking the champ close home with what might best be described as passive hands and heels riding (she was ending Buveur D’Air’s unbeaten hurdling record).
It’s likely to be soft for the Champion Hurdle, a surface she has run competitively on only once when down the field last season in the Betfair Hurdle. She won just a single race last season. This season she is unlucky not to be unbeaten having had several traffic problems after the last (normally 2nd last) in the Greatwood Hurdle before finishing a fast closing 4th with quite a bit of running left in her.
So, she could be going for five in a row here had she had more luck. As to last time over hurdles, when a champion is beaten, or a horse does something unexpectedly good, the default position for many racing analysts is ‘ something went wrong. X or Y didn’t run its race. The favourite was under the weather etc.’ In my experience they often revert to this as shorthand for ‘I didn’t predict this or anything close to it so I can’t be wrong, it must be the result that’s wrong’.
Over the years I’ve found it much more profitable to take the view that what you just saw is very likely to be exactly what you just saw.
The other two mares in the race, Apple’s Jade and Laurina will take up all the pre-race headlines tomorrow, understandably as Henderson’s pre-race comment about his own mare is almost dismissive: ‘Verdana Blue is ground-dependent and it’s obviously going to go against her, but we’re going to run and I wish her the best.’ It’s very plain then that it’s the owners who have forced the run here and I very much hope their faith will be rewarded.
EW Verdana Blue at 40/1 – Betfair and Paddy Power
I lost a good few quid when Apple’s jade didn’t go for this a couple back, simply because
she didn’t win the Fighting Fifth. She should have gone, but that’s water under the bridge.
I wasn’t convinced they were too serious about sending her here this time, and by the time
it was obvious they were sending her, the price was too short for me. She may well win by
half the street, like she did at Aintree, but I’m chancing leaving her alone and hoping that
there is still some value to be had with Sharjah at 16/1 e/w. There’s been
comment that he doesn’t really want it soft, but he has decent enough form on it, and earlier
had won on heavy. He looked very smart a couple of years back, and then for whatever reason
didn’t fire until last back end where he looked to have improved no end. Whether he’s good
enough to mix it with BVD and AJ, I don’t know, but I think he’s being underestimated here.
He’s all I’ve got in this, and I’ll leave it that way.Had a free bet to use in this so put it on the horse named after a big fruit. Go on Melon, the cheekpieces will keep the wind off your face.
Melon 16-1 EW in addition to my optimistic early 8s EW
and my even more optimistic early
Sharjah 50-1 win only.Susannah Ricci’s racing manager was on the oddschecker cheltenham preview and he didn’t like sharjahs chances with any cut in the ground
I’d say the ground has ruined any chance for Sharjah and VB. Joe i can see what you mean pricewise, but she’d need to follow the theory, that any horse can run to form once on bad ground, for it to come to fruition IMO!
Probably brings Melon into it more for place purposes….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Apple’s Jade is my favourite mare since Anaglogs Daughter and I would love to see her win this afternoon.
Sadly, I think that she’ll prove a sitting duck and that Buveur d’Air will pick her off going to the last.
I hope that I’m wrong but I simply don’t think she’ll be able to repel the reigning champion’s turn of foot.
I think we are over complicating this !! LOL
Turn for home two with a chance AJ and BD and BD out toughs the mare on the climb to the line !!
JOB DONE !!
No point having a bet unless you are optimistic
Good Luck Guys
Is buveur Dairs form this season really good enough to win this? I don’t think so, beating samcro doesn’t look much of an achievement given subsequent events, and he was beaten in the Christmas hurdle before running in an almost walkover at sandown. Compare that to what Apples Jade and even Sharjah and brain power have done. While Laurina is the unknown really. Can’t have buveur at all
I’m stuck with Sharjah, although the market suggests it’s an also ran, but
we’ll see. There are a few odd results, some big priced e/w so far, so
although I think Apples jade will win, I’ve stuck a very speculative
e/w on Global Citizen at 66/1. Just a race to enjoy I think.The horses that have been held up been struggling to make up ground so far today
Geraghty wont want to be too far back on buveur
Laurina is sure to be well backed after Mullins won the first two easily. He’s the man in form and may well be 3 from 3 had his not made a bad late mistake. However, she’s previously been beating up far inferior rivals. Could be a top notcher but could also be a long way behind the other market principles.
BD is sure to appreciate a good pace and will the McManus second string hastle the front running Apples Jade? Will the other out and out front runner Global Citizen make it? Does AJ need to have a view of the front? If getting a nice time in front she’ll be able to run the finish out of BD. Lot will depend on the first few furlongs.Value Is Everything
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