Carvills Lays and Plays 2

[carvillshill]

Tote Cesarewitch Newmarket Sat
2 pts win, 1 pt place

Sereth

16/1 gen.
Barney has been hoovering up the fancy prices on this for the past two days. Now the rest of us know it runs, I’m happy to take 16/1. Listed class in Germany he’s down to a mark in the 80s now and could be very well treated. He’d be a bigger bet if it weren’t for his draw in 8- Johnny Murtagh will need to be at his best to get across and get cover for what will surely be a hold-up ride. Darley Sun must overcome the poor record of 3 year olds- older horses fare much better in this extreme stamina test.
3rd 16/1 +2 pts.
5:15 Punchestown
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

All Noble

12/1 Bet 365
Won a 3 mile handicap hurdle recently where the combination of trip and ground seemed to suit. Lower over fences handicapped mostly on runs in the soft which he doesn’t like, he must have a chance of following up in a bad race.
unpl 8/1 -1.5 pts

[carvillshill]

Champion Stakes
1 pt win

Mawatheeq

7/1 g Paddy Power
Drifting to an interesting price- his win over Campanologist was visually impressive and he’s one of the few in here definitely in form and capable of massive improvement. I’m against Fame and Glory at the price at 10f on fastish ground, the same goes for Sariska.
2nd 7/1 -1 pt.

4.30 Downpatrick
1 pt win

Bio Boy

5/1 g Bet 365
ran well last day after being left at the start, looked to have a weak race like this well in his compass.
unpl 4/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

1.55 Punchestown
1 point win

Psycho

5/2 Paddy Power.
I couldn’t have Rahan de Marcigny as short- though I’m no expert on French form his win at Pau surely isn’t equivalent to Psycho’s Pierse hurdle second or second to Big Zeb at Fairyhouse. He goes ok fresh and soft ground suits.
won 2/1 +2.5 pts.

October
Staked 19 pts
Loss 0.5 pts.

[Noland]

Ive never Seen you have a winner Lol

hopefull today

[carvillshill]

3.05 Kempton 2m 4 1/2 Grad Ch
1 pt win

Pasco

7/2 Vic C
I have Duc de Regniere down in my notes as one of the worst jumpers of a fence I’ve seen so Nicky H will have to have worked the oracle to get him to put in an unblemished round over Kempton’s tricky circuit- my experience is that once they don’t take to it, they seldom improve much. Pasco has Ruby, who can get him into a nice rhythm jumping off the good ground he likes and though he’s never won this far the pace here is unlikely to be frenetic and Kempton isn’t the stiffest test. The form of his stable is perhaps why he’s such a big price this morning but they usually come to life in November- a win for Like Minded earlier would increase confidence. Sir Harry Ormesher is hard to weigh up and is feared if rendered more tractable by his excellent trainer but has looked a bit iffy more than once. I reckon Battlecry would prefer 3 miles now.
fell 7/2 -1 pt.

[Salselon]

Ruby apparently not taking up his rides at Kempton CH.

[carvillshill]

Hennessy Gold Cup
1 pt each-way

Carruthers

12/1 Hills
I’ve been hovering around the 12/1 about this horse for a while and today is the day to take it as some bloke in the RP has put it up and the price is going. I hope he’s right that the horse runs. Has looked like a flat track horse and Newbury will suit, he’s just the sort of second season chaser who wins this and will have a nice weight if Denman runs.
N.R. – 2pts.

2.25 Thurles
1.5 pts win

In Compliance

9/4 g gen.
If he is within 10lbs of his old form he wins this, I have him about a 6/4 shot. Goes well fresh and reported as 100% fit. Trip is perfect, Chelsea Harbour would prefer further.
won 15/8 + 3.4 pts.

[carvillshill]

JN Wine Chase Down Royal Sat
2 pts win

Casey Jones

10-1 Ladbrokes
Notre Pere will love conditions but usually needs a run to put him right so might be vulnerable tomorrow. The next few in the betting all look on the downgrade (the Listener, My Will) and Casey Jones is on the up. He’s had a run, stays all day and won’t mind the ground. I have him no more than a 5/1 shot here. If I have a worry it’s the track- he didn’t seem to handle the ups and downs of Cheltenham last season and Down Royal is a bit the same, but they should be going a stride slower on soft ground.
unpl 8/1 -2 pts.

Hennessy Gold Cup
1 pt win

The Tother One

14/1 Bet 365
N.R. – 1 pt.

Badger Ales Chase Wincanton
1 pt win

The Tother One

best morning odds (8/1 bet 365 tonight)
2nd 7/1 -1 pt.

This is another horse I want on my side for Newbury and it’s encouraging to see him declared under Ruby at Wincanton tomorrow. He needs to win to get into the weights for the Hennessy and might just do that. He looked a horse of immense promise this time last yaer before going wrong and gets good reviews from his trainer in recent articles. High weights are no barrier to running well in tomorrows race.

[carvillshill]

2.00 Down Royal
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Takestan

10/1 Ladbrokes
Showed a nice turn of foot latest at Punchestown and price is too big here.
5th 7/1 -1.5 pts.
2.30
1/2 pt each-way

My Will

6/1 paddy power
Bullish trainer this morning, conditions suit.
2nd 5/1 +0.2 pts.

[carvillshill]

3.00 Limerick
1 pt win

Mat’s Teacher

4/1 g. gen
Noted making headway under a quiet ride behind Dunguib at Galway now handicapped and has found a weak race.
unpl 7/2 -1 pt.

3.35 Limerick
1 pt each-way

Swift Counsel

5/1 g. gen.
Liked the way this one travelled and jumped the last day here and formed the impression he needed to be produced very late. drop back to the minimum no problem. larkwing hasn’t reproduced his hurdles form yet over fences and Pesoto will need to be decent to beat the selection.
2nd 7/2 0

[carvillshill]

Paddy Power Chase Sat.
1 pt win

Chapoturgeon

6/1 gen.
Looks the most likely winner to me having course form and the right age and runs profile. Price may come under pressure as doubts over Poquelin and Northern Alliance is also easy to back.
fell 7/1 – 1pt.

1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Tartak

25/1 gen.
Never at the races at Aintree after early mistakes and the Arkle never went his way either- won well at Aintree last season and no forlorn hope if he gets into a better jumping rhythm in this on Saturday.
unpl 18/1 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

Friday 13th November
3.10 Chelt Sat.
1 pt each-way

Le Beau Bai

14/1 Bet 365
Sadly the lure of the Montpelier Wine Bar stopped me from putting this up at the 20-1 which was available before I went out (but not from taking it!) I have this horse a single-figure price off a 10lbs lower rating than over fences and with no going or trip issues. Has gone well fresh before and must have a chance.
unpl 10-1 -2 pts.

Sat 14th
3.10 Chelt
1pt each-way

Warnes Way

12/1 Ladbrokes
Stays well, love the ground, good tune up on the Flat recently.
unpl 16/1 -2 pts.

[carvillshill]

2.20 Chelt
1 pt win

Raise Your Heart

12/1 Hills
At first glance this horse looks to have it do do to defy top weight, however he’s one of the few proven in conditions which will be vital today and continues to improve at a rate of knots on the Flat- he began winning off 50 and is now Listed class. One abortive trip to Cheltenham for the County but didn’t run too badly there on ground that would have been quick enough after being impeded at a vital stage. Issaquah, Ronaldo des Mottes and James de Vassy are feared most.
Unpl 10-1 -1 pt.
2.55 Chelt
1 pt win

Sangfroid

8/1 Hills
Has been a bit of a slow learner but finally won over hurdles at the end of last season and stayed on well here at the last meeting on faster ground. He showed at Sandown last season that soft is fine for him and he stays really well so today will suit well. Stable in great form and won with a similar profile horse yesterday (improved a lot on first run)
5th 8/1 – 1pt.
12.45 Cork
1/2 pt each-way

Classic Frontier

20-1 Bet 365
Not sure Our Monty should be as short- trip has to be a doubt. This horse promises to stay and handles the soft.
5th 8/1 -1 pt.

1.35 Punchestown
1 pt win

Blueberry Boy

6/1 Bet 365
An old favourite of mine who loves this track, soft ground and goes well fresh.
won 5/1 + 6 pts.

[carvillshill]

1.35 Clonmel
1.5 pts win

Dashing George

10/3 Victor C
the ground in Clonmel is sure to be very testing and this horse won’t mind. His recent chase form is well ahead of this class and even his win over Hold the Pin last February would be good enough as a 9lbs rise looks within his compass. Willie Mullins will need to get significant improvement out of Dorset Square to match him and there must be a doubt about the admirable Back Me Up at this trip on heavy- if he does stay he’s the danger.
unpl 11/4 – 1.5 pts.

Beecher Chase Ante Post
1.5 pts win

Offshore Account

10/1 Bet 365
This horse ran well in last year’s National, leading for a long way. There’s been a few quid for him today which makes me think he’s an intended runner so it’s worth taking the last of the 10-1. He’ll be up front out of trouble and jumps these fences well.
N.R. -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

Troytown Chase Navan Sunday
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Bella Mana Mou

25/1 Hills
1 pt win

Beroni

12/1 Ladbrokes

You need a lightly-weighted unexposed sort here most years and both of these fit the bill. Bella Mana Mou is a course and distance winner last season and would have needed her latest run. She loves heavy ground.
Beroni has improved for the switch to willie Mullins and a bit like Mark Johnston, when he steps them up in trip get on- he wasn’t stopping at the end of 2m6f at Galway over hurdles latest.
P.U. 10-1, won 7/1 +10.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

Betfair Chase
1 pt each-way

Imperial Commander

11-1 Coral, 10-1 Ladbrokes.
7/7 fresh, the fact that he likes Cheltenham so much means this track may well suit him better than the two principals. If he’s ever going to get 3 miles it’ll be around here.
2nd btn nose, 9/1 +1.75 pts.
3.05 Lingfield
1 pt win

Sir Gerry

20/1 Coral
Would have a big chance on his Ascot runs and latest was just a sighter on unsuitable ground for his new stable, can see this suiting him.
unpl 10-1 -1 pt.

Beecher Chase Sunday
1 pt win

Hello Bud

11/2 gen.
Gutted that my original ante-post poke Offshore Account doesn’t make the gig but hoping this guy can make all instead.
unpl 10/3 -1 pt.

Sefton Chase Aintree Sun
1 pt win

The Sawyer

13/2 Paddy Power
Another bold-jumping front runner who didn’t get home in the Topham last year but ran a belter first time out at Cheltenham.
fell 9/2 -1 pt.

[Gingertipster]

Beecher Chase Sunday
1 pt win

Hello Bud

11/2 gen.
Gutted that my original ante-post poke Offshore Account doesn’t make the gig but hoping this guy can make all instead.

Your post reminded me, thanks Carv,
Could not believe 11/2 about Hello Bud, just backed it myself. The price is now only avalable with VC!

This course favours front runners.

P.S.
Get on this for the big one.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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