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Does anyone know a good reason why Macs Joy is 6/1 for this race tomorrow, recieving weight from all principles?
I’ve had my 1st maximum punt (admittedly not a huge bet) on this one since Rakti’s Lockinge, as although there is obviously no such thing as a certainty, surely this price is too high, thoughts?
I agree that Mac’s Joy receiving 8lbs is over-priced at 6/1. He’s been second in a CH, and would theoretically have won that day had he been in receipt of that amount of weight. He showed last spring that all form hasn’t deserted him by coming 2nd at Punchestown, and he’s had a couple of runs this season to put him right. It just seems that everything is right for him to run a big race, and with 8 runners still standing an e/w bet looks like a steal!
Can anyone for the life of me tell me why Straw Bear is 10/1? If this horse is over his problem with broken blood vessels (and factoring in that possibility into the odds), I’d only fear Sublimity, who is reported to be slightly over ideal racing weight.
You’re clutching at Straws (geddit) Salselon.
I see no reason why Sublimity won’t pulverise these again tomorrow.
5/2 is a gift, get on!
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I can’t see Desert Quest being out of the first 3 really.
The first time he has had his ground in ages, and the 8lb he receives from most of the field certainly puts him in with a shout. Fitness guaranteed too, unlike some at shorter prices.Reet,
Fair point re DQ’s ground, but do you really feel he has progressed since the earlier part of last season?Carvill’s,
No doubt he’s the best horse, but doubt he’ll be at his best first time out.And
Can’t see Sublimity getting the strong pace which saw him to his festival win tomorrow, but will a sprint finish also suit with the 1m flat speed he posesses? Enough doubt for me to take him on on his reappearance.
Really is D-Day for Macs Joy tomorrow, not winning at these weights and surely a CH bid this year will be fanciful / pointless.
Take no notice of John Carr- he’s a punter, and the only reason he’s making these public pronouncements is to get a price. The horse runs best fresh and will be plenty fit enough.
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Fair point re DQ’s ground, but do you really feel he has progressed since the earlier part of last season?
Salselon
His hurdles record on good ground or faster reads 2111112, he just hasn’t the same turn of foot on softer ground.
Hasn’t had his ground since Wincanton, Nov 06, where he was giving 23lbs to another speed horse, Crow Wood, and was maybe a touch unlucky.I was thinking the same thing myself this morning.
6/1 is a massive price especially under the conditions of the race.
I think Macs Joy has flattered to deceive his entire career and tomorrow will be no different. He’s only won twice in his last 14 runs and they were both 4 runner affairs.
Afsoun for me tomorrow. Has only 3 lengths to make up on Sublimity on the Champion Hurdle and has the benefit of a run this season already. He might get caught out a bit if there’s no pace but he’ll stay up the hill and I think he’s a better bet than Macs Joy at the same price.
I think Katchit at 5/1 is a good bet, but as far more knowledgeable people on this forum then me have not given him a mention, Im starting to wonder am I missing something?
David,
Considering how Afsoun was firmly put in his place by Straw Bear in the Kingwell (?) last year, then what are the grounds for a reverse in that form? I think Straw Bear is vastly underrated, and with a clean bill of health, must go very close.
Reet, take your point. Really do think this is a favourite to be taken on, Macs Joy possibly past his best (though an 8 pound weight difference should help), Afsoun doesn’t possess the necessary pace to be a true top notcher and if anyone can tell me why Katchit deserves to be shorter than Desert Quest, Macs Joy or Straw Bear, i’ll eat my hat!
Im really looking forward to the race personally.
There are a few that you could put in with chances.
I wouldn’t write Katchit off, back at the track that he loves too.
Im not totally convinced by Sublimity, so i will probably just watch the race rather than get involved.
I wouldn’t bet Sublimity with bad money I think his champion hurdle was a fluke and the form stinks to the high heavens.
I strongly fancy Katchit there was a lot of bad vibes about him 1st time out.
Apart from the fact he loves the course and will be a different proposition today he is as tough as old boots. If he gets first run on them coming down the hill I can’t see anything passing him.Afsoun could be his biggest danger but Straw Bear could be the one to spoil the party if running up to his best.
Footnote: I was so far off the mark with everything I thought would run well on Friday you would have to be nuts to listen to me.
There is a lot of support for Desert Quest flying around. Personally I have no opinion either way as to whether he will run well or not.
But his last 3 hurdles runs have resulted in him being beat an accumulative total of nearly 95L. Another stat that jumps out without looking to deep into the form is that he has twice been beaten by Straw Bear, the distances being 45L and 68L respectively.
So the obvious question is, to all those people who fancy him, do you think his two novice chase victories have revitalised him? They were hardly the most competitive novice chases and the horse didn’t even have to get out of second gear to win.
Mike
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