- This topic has 61 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
About the only horse no one mentioned
Obviously got to run in Champion but getting 8lbs today who knows what March will bring……a real mess of a CH if ever there was one, going to be a real puzzle working out who will win it.
First of all, terribly sorry about Mac’s Joy. Always sad to lose a horse on the track, especially so when the injury seems to have come about so innocuously as this one has.
I am completely underwhelmed by that form. All credit to Osana, he seems to have improved 15lbs or so on his last run and will be right to take his place in the line-up on CH day, but behind him only Katchit has really run his race IMO. Afsoun looked distressed from the moment they went down, Mac’s Joy was tragically hurt, Straw Bear appeared to need the run and Sublimity was clearly too heavy. Come March I’ll be pretty much striking a line through the Bula form as a genuine indicator.
I would like to echo Friggo’s sentiments regarding Macs Joy – very sad.
Regarding the race itself, I have no reason whatsoever to knock the form. The only bit of form I would question would be that of the winner because to me the jockey was looking to pinch an easy lead – and he did. However, this did make the race a true run race at a good pace and Osana did quicken again at the finish, so massive credit for that.
I don’t think Osana will get a soft lead in the CH and I would fancy Katchit strongly at this stage to take the prize. Sublimity looked as fit as a flea to me (though admitedly TV pictures are deceptive and I’m not a good judge) and I don’t think he will improve that much, whereas Straw Bear and Afsoun are just not good enough in my opinion. As for Desert Quest, well I said all I wanted to say before the race about this one. I was very surpried at the support for him.
Good to see the Pipe horses run from the front and take all the beating though – it’s like the good old days.
Katchit for the CH for me, and the 10/1 is very tempting. I can see him reversing form with Osana, why I see no reason for the horses that finished behind him today to beat him, other than Sublimity if he really wasn’t fully wound up. The horse to fear may now be Harchibald.
Mike
I agree with Mike to be honest.
I personally think connections of Katchit will be quite pleased with the way he has run today, he came down the hill really well and was picking up, and then up the hill to the line he was still battling on.
Give them all a fair start, i.e. where Osana is not ‘x’ lengths ahead of the rivals in the race and i think Katchit will be there or there abouts.
Katchit for me and i may even have my first Ante Post bet on him.
Mikkymo wrote:-
Good to see the Pipe horses run from the front and take all the beating though – it’s like the good old days.
Careful Mikky, praising Pipe senior on here was almost a capital offence to some. I wonder how long it will be before Pipe junior attracts similar criticism?
Sorry, but i just don’t see it
Katchit only just beats Degas Art, he then gets stuffed by Al Eile and Harchibald and now gets stuffed by Osana, CH fav Sublimity and Straw Bear running as though they needing it, Afsoun sweating like he’d already run 4 mile
Are Harchibald, Al Eile, Sublimity, Afsoun, Straw Bear, Hardy Eustace, Sizing Europe bypassing the Champion Hurdle this year and going to take on Inglis Drever in World Hurdle
Because that’s only way Katchit wins Champion Hurdle imo
I hope that point was a tad hyperbolic, Charlie D. I’m by no means Katchit’s biggest fan (in fact to call me a ‘fan’ at all would be a big stretch) , but he has ran his race today as he did at Newcastle, and indeed at Aintree. He is a reliable sort, and will always give you a run for your money. I agree with you that it will only take one out of 2 or 3 to turn up in order to beat him in March, but I’m also absolutely certain that little Katchit will run up to the form he’s shown before, a guarantee that after today I can’t make about any other horse in the current crop of 2m hurdlers.
On paper it looks pretty solid, Katchit running to a similar level as when beaten last time and Penzance back to his best. I’m not totally easy with that though as Penzance hardly travelled as though back in good heart and only closed up late past tiring rivals. If he was flattered, it suggests Osana has done pretty well to sustain his effort better than the others that raced prominently, but it also has to be taken into account that he stole 7/8 lengths at the start.
I wouldn’t be interesting in playing him at current odds for the champion hurdle as he still needs to improve 6 or 7 lb to win an average champion hurdle. I know this is shaping up into a below-par year but I still couldn’t back him at a single figure price. Hopefully he’ll get to the race in March as he’ll set the strong gallop that should play into the hands into the improving handicapper that I think will come through to claim the race, namely Farmer Brown.
In my honest opinion, in this day and age to many excuses are made for beaten horses. Sometimes, the only horses to take out of a race are the principals.
So for me, the only horses to take out of this race are Osana and Katchit. And like I and DJ have already said, if Osana hadn’t stole such a soft lead, the only horse I would be taking out of the race would be Osana.
I am of the opinion at this stage that Katchit can reverse the form with Osana, while I see no reason why the rest of today’s Bula field should beat Katchit or Osana. The possible exception is Sublimity, but even allowing for him not being fully fit, the fact remains he has still been beat nearly 20L.
Charlie, if either Afsoun or Straw Bear finish ahead of Katchit in the CH (barring accidents) I will jump out of a plane without a parachute (something you’d all like to see
). You haven’t directly said they will beat Katchit, but they were amongst the list of horses you mentioned that would need to go elsewhere if Katchit is to prevail – so I’m presuming you think they will finish ahead of him. Apologies if I have assumed incorrectly.Mike
but he has ran his race today as he did at Newcastle, and indeed at Aintree. .
Totally agree and that form is well short of CH winning standard.
Charlie, if either Afsoun or Straw Bear finish ahead of Katchit in the CH (barring accidents) I will jump out of a plane without a parachute (something you’d all like to see
). You haven’t directly said they will beat Katchit, but they were amongst the list of horses you mentioned that would need to go elsewhere if Katchit is to prevail – so I’m presuming you think they will finish ahead of him. Apologies if I have assumed incorrectly.Mike
mikky i copied this from Katchit thread
Katchit is being over – rated because of his wide margin wins as a Novice, but they are 3/4/5 lengths short of what is required here, just like they were short of what was required at Newcastle
I’m not sure Afsoun can win, but i’m fairly confident Katchit can’t and fairly confident he can’t place either, if Afsoun, Macs Joy, Straw Bear , Sublimity run their races
And after today the above still stands
Thanks for that Charlie.
I’m still surprised you name Afsoun and Straw Bear as two to beat Katchit if all running their race. Straw Bear has done very little outside of Novice company in my opinion. He won a 5 runner grade 2 race (which was effectively a 2 runner race) against Afsoun ironically.
His Fighting Fifth win was no better than Katchit’s 3rd in the race, as it was a much weaker affair in my opinion. I would be strongly in the Katchit camp over Afsoun and Straw Bear at this moment in time.
The key words here though are "if they run their race". If Afsoun and Straw Bear keep getting beat how easy it for us to keep saying they didn’t run their race? Is their any suggestion today that they didn’t run their race? Is it possible that’s just how good they are? Afsoun is better over further and Straw Bear’s injuries have caught up with him perhaps…. I’m not saying this is true, I’m just posing the question.
Mike
Agree about Straw Bear Micky Mo he’s not as good as some people think he is. He’s decent but he’s not good enough to beat the best.
Afsoun for me needs three miles.
Katchit’s done fab today – he wasn’t himself at Newcastle and Alan has had no time to do anything with him since. Osana’s run a great race but we’ve eyeballed Sublimity and Afsoun and come through.
We’re gonna take a long break and let Katchit rest and fill out further -what I not anyone else can say is that we will win the CH but neither can you say that we won’t be there or there abouts – the boy runs bloody well every time and boy should you all be thinking about next year!!!
Afsoun for me needs three miles.
Running like he is at just 5 would make me think the same. He will need further eventually, although I think for the moment he can still be of use over 2m against this current mob. Supposedly Mick Fitz had said he got too close too early at Ascot and that he’d hold Afsoun up a bit more this time, before promptly chasing Osana until the horse was knackered!
Sublimity looked as fit as a flea to me (though admitedly TV pictures are deceptive and I’m not a good judge) and I don’t think he will improve that much
I’m not the greatest judge either, but he definitely did look heavy to me.
However regardless of his physique, I’m quite sure that Sublimity has considerable improvement to come. C4 showed a replay of his CH prior to the race today, so it was easy to see the difference in him between March and December. Where in the CH he readily quickened past two horses with 3 titles between them going up the hill, today he came to offer some sort of challenge 2 out, then jumped the last practically on the spot, he was a very tired horse. Considering the times were of similar standard and the ground today was officially good compared to the soft he won on LTO, I’ve got to come to the conclusion that he was nowhere near as fit as he was when he won the CH.Katchit’s done fab today – he wasn’t himself at Newcastle and Alan has had no time to do anything with him since. Osana’s run a great race but we’ve eyeballed Sublimity and Afsoun and come through.
We’re gonna take a long break and let Katchit rest and fill out further -what I not anyone else can say is that we will win the CH but neither can you say that we won’t be there or there abouts – the boy runs bloody well every time and boy should you all be thinking about next year!!!
My exact sentiments……and I said as much in another post.
10/1 is a knocking ew bet IMO
Thanks for that Charlie.
I’m still surprised you name Afsoun and Straw Bear as two to beat Katchit if all running their race. Straw Bear has done very little outside of Novice company in my opinion. He won a 5 runner grade 2 race (which was effectively a 2 runner race) against Afsoun ironically.
His Fighting Fifth win was no better than Katchit’s 3rd in the race, as it was a much weaker affair in my opinion. I would be strongly in the Katchit camp over Afsoun and Straw Bear at this moment in time.
The key words here though are "if they run their race". If Afsoun and Straw Bear keep getting beat how easy it for us to keep saying they didn’t run their race? Is their any suggestion today that they didn’t run their race? Is it possible that’s just how good they are? Afsoun is better over further and Straw Bear’s injuries have caught up with him perhaps…. I’m not saying this is true, I’m just posing the question.
Mike
All i can do is give my interpretation as i see it and as i see it at the
moment, Katchit is behind all those i have mentioned.Nothing against his attitude or anything like that, but it will surprise me if he has the ability to win any of the future Grade 1/2 races he will be contesting
Anyway, thats enough from me on this one, lets see what the future races show us
). You haven’t directly said they will beat Katchit, but they were amongst the list of horses you mentioned that would need to go elsewhere if Katchit is to prevail – so I’m presuming you think they will finish ahead of him. Apologies if I have assumed incorrectly.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.