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So who do you think going to win these two big races on saturday. I’m thinking ortensia and nathaniel in a double but maybe bated breath comes into the reckoning if it’s fast ground!
So who do you think going to win these two big races on saturday. I’m thinking ortensia and nathaniel in a double but maybe bated breath comes into the reckoning if it’s fast ground!
Bated Breath’s course form is very encouraging. He has 3 wins from 4 runs and the time he didn’t win he was beaten a nostril by Dream Ahead in this race last year. I think he needs some firm in the going description to be seen at his best. Ortensia was reported to have had a hard race at York and took a day or two to look better physically but the trainer reports that she has a great constitution. William Buick might not be available to ride as he is expected to partner Nathaniel and would need to get on a plane at some point. Bearing in mind that she has looked better under Buick the last twice, although it may just be coincidence, it may be a negative. Also, she has not run at Haydock before.
At 11/4 Ortensia and 5/1 Bated Breath, I would prefer an each-way on the latter at a course where he has strong form, ground dependent of course.
Nathaniel looks to have Snow Fairy to beat. I think he will do so and my lay in the race at 9/2 would be Imperial Monarch as I think he has a lot to do simply by dint of being three years old and a colt not with the name Camelot. Not that I would fancy the latter in this race either.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like the look of Dandy Boy at a general 16/1.
A very recent convert to sprinting won the Wokingham in great style then excuses for it’s last 2 runs, ground like a bog on it’s penultimate start and then found the 5f too short in the Nunthorpe keeping on well last time out.
The Haydock Sprint Cup is traditionally the weakest of the three Group 1 6f sprints on the calendar. This year’s renewal does not look as strong as last year when Bated Breath went very close. However he has been campaigned over 5f exclusively this year so this represents a change in discipline.
Ortensia has proved herself the queen of the minimum trip and while she has winning form over further in her homeland, it is not quite as good as she showed at Goodwood. She was outpaced early at York but came through under a panic-free ride from William Buick who has built up a fine relationship with her. There does not appear to be much early pace drawn high so there is a question whether she will get a nice tow into the business end of the race or will expend too much energy making her own running. She has more class than her opponents but her current price is hardly appealing.
Strong Suit will find this ground more to his likely than in the July Cup but under such conditions his proven stamina may not come into play until after the finishing line. The search for a suitable trip this season does not justify the relatively skinny price offered.
Soul looked good under much softer conditions at Newbury but was readily beaten last time out. Although he will be in the front rank early, he does not look up to this class.
Society Rock has shown an increasing tendency to dwell at the start. If Mr Fallon can get him away reasonably smartly, he is a danger to all.
Wizz Kid has done her winning at 5f but has shown that she can perhaps be effective at this trip (her pedigree offers hope) as she matures. If she does not over-race in the early stages she has a good turn of foot.The two fillies have been drawn away from the obvious pace in the race. While Ortensia could again prove to be superior, her price is woeful in view of the factors against her. Bated Breath has a fine record at the track and appears well-drawn, he has more in his favour than any of his previous runs at this level but there is a feeling that he could be a perennial bridesmaid. Strong Suit was not given the greatest ride last time but this does not represent an easier opportunity. Society Rock has been given a break since the July Cup, he runs well fresh and if his starting problems have been remedied he should go very well. At the current odds of around 10/1 he looks a reasonable investment.
This year’s renewal does not look as strong as last year when Bated Breath went very close. However he has been campaigned over 5f exclusively this year so this represents a change in discipline.
Five of his six wins were at 6f and he would have run in the July Cup but for the ground. In the King Stand at Royal Ascot it looked to me that he might have been better served by a little further. He’s a two time C+D winner so I am a bit puzzled as to why you consider this a new discipline for him. Easier to see the potential bridesmaid tag at the top level though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks to be between Bated Breath and Ortensia and the latter looks the one in the best form. How she got up to win at York was for me probably the performance of the season.
Steve, I recall reading Mr Charlton saying that he had been training Bated Breath for running over 5f. If his trainer considers there is a distinction then it is reasonable enough to assume it may have some bearing on his horse’s performance over a different trip.
Steve, I recall reading Mr Charlton saying that he had been training Bated Breath for running over 5f. If his trainer considers there is a distinction then it is reasonable enough to assume it may have some bearing on his horse’s performance over a different trip.
I can’t buy into that at all. It amounts to making the horse "unlearn" something it has managed to do successfully twice already and very nearly a third time in the same race last year. Also, how was it supposed to help the horse win the July Cup?
It would seem that if a trainer was teaching a horse to run more effectively at five furlongs then the difference would be that he is ridden more aggressively to make him more competitive over the shorter distance. In his three runs this year over 5f the post race commentary reads "tracked leaders" in each case, and kept on/ran on in the cases where he didn’t win. It would seem that if Charlton has been training him specifically for 5f effectiveness, he hasn’t quite been successful. For there to be a concern about him over 6f in the light of a 5f regime it would have to be that he would run too free and lose the ability to get the sixth furlong that he has managed to get at the track before. Nothing in the way he has run this season suggests that to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My 100% book for the Sprint Cup:
Bated Breath 3/1
, Ortensia 3/1,
Strong Suit 11/2
,
Wizz Kid 10/1
,
Soul 18/1
, Society Rock 20/1, Hitchens 25/1, Dandy Boy 25/1, Gordon Lord Byron 33/1, Hawkeyethenoo 33/1, Majestic Myles 80/1, Genki 132/1, Es Que Love 200/1, Confessional 800/1, Elusivity 800/1.
Bated Breath, Strong Suit, Wizz Kid and Soul look the value to me, with Bated Breath the best value. Am on Bated Breath and Wizz Kid as the main bets with savers on Strong Suit and Soul. Unfortunately couldn’t put Wizz Kid up on my thread as poor liquidity on betfair. Suspect she’ll be Pricewise and may be around 14/1 early tomorrow morning.
Bated Breath
was drawn out of it at York and did well from his position. Points his toe so ideally suited by a firm surface. 6f suits just as well as 5f. Although not won a Group 1 there’s nothing wrong with his form or temperament.
Although it initially looked as if there was an advantage drawn high at Haydock today, the latter races were less so. The Sprint Cup pace seems to be low, Es Que love (drawn 2), Hitchens (4) and Soul (6). None of those actually need to lead so there’s no guaranteed pace in the race. Bated Breath usually tracks the pace, so should be in a fair spot to quicken. The only speed drawn high is probably Majestic Myles (11). Held up last time, whether he’ll go on or be good enough to lead those drawn high for long is questionable. That might hinder the prospects of Ortensia.
Connections of the Aussie horse have said
Ortensia
is suited by the ground. Her form does not bear that out… yet. I backed her on all starts over here so far. At Ascot she got crowded. Both Goodwood and York may have suited as she found a lot of room to quicken. Ortensia is a good looking quality mare, but seems to have her quirks. Being drawn on the outside might be helpful, but if she does get in behind horses might not want to come through.
Strong Suit
has in my opinion been crying out for 6f on a firm surface. USA bred and run poorly on soft. Shows speed at 7f and appears not to stay 8. Should’ve won the Hungerford, leader allowed too much rope. Yet to establish himself this term, but there were clear signs of a move back to form last time.
Wizz Kid
has some excellent form in France, argueably unlucky not to win the Abbeye… Along with Sole Power who’s closely matched with Bated Breath. Neither could get a clear passage. Not far away from Decon Blues in the Champions Day Sprint on a firm surface. Equally effective at 5 or 6f. Trip a possible excuse last time.
Soul
has a bit of a rounded action which may not suit at Newbury last time or here. However, trip and being held up are other possible reasons for the poor run in the Hungerford. Previously progressive and could get an easy(ish) lead. At the price is worth at least a saver.
Society Rock
‘s best form seems reserved for Ascot.
Value Is EverythingOrtensia goes really good on our dead’ish rated tracks, which I believe is what you have there today. Our sprinters are simply better so if you like her I think you’re mainly gambling against her holding her form and recovering well from her last run.
Can’t believe anyone thinks there is a sizeable difference between 5f and 6f. That’s got to be a wind up surely.
Ortensia goes really good on our dead’ish rated tracks, which I believe is what you have there today. Our sprinters are simply better so if you like her I think you’re mainly gambling against her holding her form and recovering well from her last run.
Can’t believe anyone thinks there is a sizeable difference between 5f and 6f. That’s got to be a wind up surely.
Had it been "dead" ground AIC, I would’ve made Ortensia the clear favourite, but it looks to be on the firm side tomorrow. So there must be a chance she is not as good on it.
Has Ortensia ever shown a dislike for being crowded when racing in Australia AIC? It’s seemed over here she likes racing on her own.
Her best form does seem to be at 5f, however Ortensia races at 5f as if 6 should suit even better. Don’t know what to make of that stat.
Value Is EverythingMessara walked the track and has told Aussie media the track is the equivalent of our dead ie perfect, not too hard. Not sure but probably our soft is your dead, our dead is your fast, our fast is your flint hard call off the races!!
She likes room to wind up always has. She can win over 1300-1400 in top company but any further forget it.
Ortensia goes really good on our dead’ish rated tracks, which I believe is what you have there today. Our sprinters are simply better so if you like her I think you’re mainly gambling against her holding her form and recovering well from her last run.
Can’t believe anyone thinks there is a sizeable difference between 5f and 6f. That’s got to be a wind up surely.
That is a question you would have to ask Mr Charlton, a trainer who has had 2 winners of l’Abbaye and 2 winners of the Haydock Sprint Cup but not one horse to win group 1 races over 5f and 6f.
As AIC says the Aussie sprinters are simply superior to ours and I think Ortensia will confirm that today, think she’s over priced at 7/2, would Bated Breath be that price if he’d won the Nunthorpe and KGS?
BB does appear to have ground/track/draw going for him so this would appear to be his big chance to land a G1 but just think the Aussie mare will prove too good for him.
Very interested to see how Strong Suit goes at 6f, will love the ground and is a class horse on his day, might have a saver at 6/1.
Messara walked the track and has told Aussie media the track is the equivalent of our dead ie perfect, not too hard. Not sure but probably our soft is your dead, our dead is your fast, our fast is your flint hard call off the races!!
She likes room to wind up always has. She can win over 1300-1400 in top company but any further forget it.
If Messara walked the Sahara he’d swear it’s the Everglades. Described York as "heavy", very pessimistic in the morning. Times suggested strongly it was no worse than good. Of course there is a difference between our good and your good, but our good is not your heavy. When it comes to going – don’t take any notice of Messara AIC.
Value Is EverythingThe Haydock Sprint Cup is traditionally the weakest of the three Group 1 6f sprints on the calendar. This year’s renewal does not look as strong as last year when Bated Breath went very close. However he has been campaigned over 5f exclusively this year so this represents a change in discipline.
Ortensia has proved herself the queen of the minimum trip and while she has winning form over further in her homeland, it is not quite as good as she showed at Goodwood. She was outpaced early at York but came through under a panic-free ride from William Buick who has built up a fine relationship with her. There does not appear to be much early pace drawn high so there is a question whether she will get a nice tow into the business end of the race or will expend too much energy making her own running. She has more class than her opponents but her current price is hardly appealing.
Strong Suit will find this ground more to his likely than in the July Cup but under such conditions his proven stamina may not come into play until after the finishing line. The search for a suitable trip this season does not justify the relatively skinny price offered.
Soul looked good under much softer conditions at Newbury but was readily beaten last time out. Although he will be in the front rank early, he does not look up to this class.
Society Rock has shown an increasing tendency to dwell at the start. If Mr Fallon can get him away reasonably smartly, he is a danger to all.
Wizz Kid has done her winning at 5f but has shown that she can perhaps be effective at this trip (her pedigree offers hope) as she matures. If she does not over-race in the early stages she has a good turn of foot.The two fillies have been drawn away from the obvious pace in the race. While Ortensia could again prove to be superior, her price is woeful in view of the factors against her. Bated Breath has a fine record at the track and appears well-drawn, he has more in his favour than any of his previous runs at this level but there is a feeling that he could be a perennial bridesmaid. Strong Suit was not given the greatest ride last time but this does not represent an easier opportunity. Society Rock has been given a break since the July Cup, he runs well fresh and if his starting problems have been remedied he should go very well. At the current odds of around 10/1 he looks a reasonable investment.
Good old girl! i deliberated for a while over it but was eventually persuaded by the School Marm’s excellent assessment and weghed in with a decent bet on Society Rock.
Paid for my Ascot ticket that EF much appreciated.
Society Rock has been given a break since the July Cup, he runs well fresh and if his starting problems have been remedied he should go very well. At the current odds of around 10/1 he looks a reasonable investment.
Bloody good tipping there. Well done!!
Although I got my money back on Bated Breath, it is bye-bye from me to him now. Looks like Ortensia is home sick now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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