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45 entered for this and the one i like is about the 3rd from bottom on official ratings which is a concern if the entries stand up at the next declaration stage.
Master Chewy on the face of it looks like a bit of a dog/pig/goat – take your pick of insults. 0/6 under rules and 0/7 if including his P2P run. However, he’s been keeping good company and should have won at Ascot when coming down at the last when 3 lengths clear. He looks well handicapped and looks the type to enjoy the fast pace and hustle and bustle. 20/1 is reasonable but no bet yet due to the potential issues with getting a run.
Clonmel has another prec inspection 7.30am tomorrow
I read somewhere that if the Clonmel race had gone ahead last week and Gaelic Warrior won he’d be fine but if winning tomorrow he’d get a 5lb penalty for the betfair hurdle??
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Unless the weights are published before tomorrow’s race, I don’t see how that can be.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thanks Ian, that’s what I thought.
I can’t find where I thought I saw it either
maybe I dreamt it…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Found it
“The name on everyone’s lips this week will inevitably be Gaelic Warrior, the antepost favourite for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and declared to run in Tuesday’s rescheduled Munster Hurdle at Clonmel.
The timing of that race being rearranged for this week rather than last means, if successful, he would now pick up a 5lb penalty for Newbury should that be the intended target next month”
Blackbeard to conquer the World
How can you get a 5lb penalty for a race which hasn’t yet got published weights?
Surely the Handicapper just takes tomorrow’s form into account?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yes, I couldn’t work it out, hence posting it up
Blackbeard to conquer the World
This one is obviously outside the sphere of my racing knowledge.
The BHA update their ORs each Tuesday, but this is surely a case of taking an Irish OR and adding the apparent current standard 10lb to it plus I’m wondering if the weights have already been framed but haven’t been released yet?
I bet Alan Potts would know.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Early closer isn’t it? Weights always go up early on the big handicaps, bit like the Grand National etc. If you read the wording on the race conditions on Racing Post under big race entries it says:
Penalties after January 15th, a winner of a hurdle 5lb; of 2 hurdles 8lb (no penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 12st)
So it is correct that if Gaelic Warrior won the race today before Sunday he’d have been running without the penalty. Micky mouse race today by the way, he might be able to win the Betfair anyway but seems like a needless penalty to me
The only thing I can think is todays race might have given him an even higher weight potentially if it was before the weights which must have effectively been set on Sunday but it looked a mickey mouse race so I’m not sure. Weights must have been set on Sunday and are still to be released then – thanks.
Addendum: Weights now out and Gaelic Warrior is on 149, which presumably becomes effectively 154 with the 5lb penalty.
3/1 best price now.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think he was 144 and upped to 149 after today
Don’t quote me on it though
He’d have no chance of 154
“He was given a mark of 144 by the British handicapper when the weights were revealed on Tuesday, meaning he would effectively race off 149 should he take up his Newbury entry.”
I’ll quote Sporting Life on it instead, then – looks like you’re right, FF!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Iceo is the one that jumps out to me looking through the entries
No bet at this stage though
I just think Gaelic Warrior complicates the race enormously.
You say he’d never have won it off 154 (the mark I wrongly thought he’d be on with the 5lb penalty), FF.
I’m not so sure.
Blue Sari has an Irish Chase OR of 150 (worth 160 over here?) and though I’m not saying he’s run to that in todays 2m Hurdle, he’s not a bad horse and Gaelic Warrior has thumped him by 15 lengths easily.
Gaelic Warrior is a horse it’s surely not easy to put a number on.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Quite a lot of the other entries look fairly exposed to me.
144 is an absolute guess from the BHA Handicapper and looks like it’s simply the Irish mark of 134 (also a complete guess) plus the standard 10lb for being Irish.
The 5lb penalty taking it to 149 is an absurd thing to pick up if they’re serious about coming over for this, but how can anyone say with confidence a horse who has just hosed up by 15 lengths, having won its previous race by EIGHTY SIX, can’t run to a mark in the mid to high 150s, which should just about win it?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"i’d hate to be using Blue Sari as any kind of form guide though. He’s capable on a going day but runs 2 or 3 stinkers in between. The fact he’s gone off 1/14 suggests BS either hasn’t improved on his final 2 runs of last year, or they had him out for a hack canter…
Can’t say with confidence what level GW can run to, but i’d be against him at 3-1 rather than with him.
What’s he really learnt from those 2 runs? What happens when he’s actually in a proper race from the off? His jumping will be get tested from that + when you add that he’s going to be going left handed either at Newbury or Cheltenham, i just couldn’t back him.
I’d sooner be backing his nephew’s if he’s a runner, coming from a yard with only 16 runners and 0 winners in 5 years. If you look back over Filey Bay’s runs for Declan Wall (yes who?) he hasn’t some bad form for Emmet to work on.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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