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Betfair Hurdle 2023

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Betfair Hurdle 2023

Viewing 17 posts - 35 through 51 (of 90 total)
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  • #1631361
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    • Total Posts 12996

    Fair comment, Jack.

    I haven’t had a bet on the race yet.

    I’ve yet to hear it confirmed Gaelic Warrior definitely runs, it’s hard to imagine him being much shorter on the day even if he does come over and I also think he might need testing ground to be seen at his best.

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    #1631454
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    Fascinating race now. I don’t really want to have another bet but i would fancy Glory and Fortune now @ 27.0 to beat the Mullins horse back over hurdles getting a pound, so makes sense to me.

    Nothing against GW but i just don’t think he will run for some reason, the Irish have never liked this race for some reason.

    #1631457
    Avatar photoBen_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 2371

    Maybe the Irish think it’s not the wisest to give their horses a tough race, often not on the best ground, so close to Cheltenham?

    #1631458
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34746

    Mullins entered Gaelic Warrior to see what the British handicapper would give him.
    He can go from there

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1631461
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    • Total Posts 12996

    Currently a 242% collective book on Oddschecker and over 200% at the Exchange.

    You could know for a fact Gaelic Warrior wasn’t running and there still wouldn’t necessarily be a value bet in against him.

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    #1631515
    Avatar photoBen_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 2371

    “Mullins entered Gaelic Warrior to see what the British handicapper would give him.
    He can go from there”

    It’s growing more on me this theory of yours Nathan, it’d explain why the horse has ran in two egg and spoon races over in Ireland rather than any of the graded trials. I know Willie has been saying he wants to give the horse more experience, but we all know how dangerous is it to take that mans words at face value.

    #1631628
    TheTinMan87
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    • Total Posts 1411

    Yeah I don’t want to make allegations or anything here but Blue Sari isn’t running against GW and actually trying. They’ve gifted him a ridiculous lead at the start, the sort you couldn’t make up on an ordinary horse running at the gallop they went never mind what is likely a very good animal. The fact the race is slower than both maidens run before it tells you as much without seeing any sectionals, a long way behind the mares maiden I’d add for all she could be a bit special herself.

    I’m not sure how literally you can take this as there’s a lot of joining the dots here but GW was assessed as being 134 in Ireland before running on Tuesday but the UK handicapper from Sunday had him as 144 so they felt he’s 10lbs better than that Irish mark. On the HRI site GW is now showing in Ireland as being 143. I can’t work out if that is because they reassessed him in light of the mark he’d been given for the Betfair Hurdle or because that is what they’ve reassessed him as after Tuesday. If they’ve put him up 9lbs further themselves then the 5lb penalty probably isn’t significant for the Betfair Hurdle, but still a bit needless unless he needed a run.

    What I would say is if they’ve put him up 9lbs themselves on their own original mark in Ireland, and the UK handicapper reciprocates that on what they had, he’s suddenly looking at 153 then handicaps at Cheltenham and indeed over here after the Betfair are a hell of a lot harder. Given you probably need half a stone to win one he’s pushing 160, he’s surely going for graded races instead at Cheltenham if he goes there.

    #1631635
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    • Total Posts 12996

    I’d say that’s broadly fair analysis.

    Blue Sari was ridden out to secure second place, but Gaelic Warrior had earlier been gifted a soft lead and the race time tells its own story.

    The BHA seems to just add 10lb to the HRI mark, but Gaelic Warrior now on HRI 143, not 134 is perplexing in terms of where they’ve got the new number from.

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    #1631665
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    GW priced up at 4/1 for the big 2 mile handicap at Leopardstown and races off 6lb lower and a big pot also.

    I don’t think i would bet 3/1 on which race he goes for next never mind win.Easier to say now than before though.

    #1632062
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34746

    No surprise to see Gaelic Warrior taken out of this

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1632080
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 16034

    Finally went with Faivoir here, as I think the 33’s is too big, for all it may be big enough to suggest he ain’t running.

    Not going mad, and definitely one I’d have to top up on if he went

    Edit – topped up again 33’s at Five Day Decs

    Faivoir 33’s EW 5pls

    #1634541
    All Jeff
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    • Total Posts 727

    Master Chewy 20-1 here. I’ll definitely bet another on the day

    #1634562
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    Newbury warning that the word ” firm ” may be in the going description come Saturday. Maybe the groundsmen are on strike or something.

    #1634564
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 11858

    If so, let’s see how many Henderson runs, after he said he would run nothing in his yard on good ground at Ascot.

    #1634567
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6563

    I heard they are not allowed to water the course for some reason Cork, don’t know the reason but no rain is due. It might get abandoned :wacko:

    #1634569
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    I remember now Cork. The license from the Environment Agency does not allow the course to water in December, January or February. They are probably worried Greta Thunberg and her cronies turn up on mass or something.

    #1634575
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 11858

    Thanks Botchy – I never knew that. Bad news for Newbury if we ever get a dry winter.

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