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I can’t see Bravemansgame’s connections wanting to swerve the Gold Cup. He has only been beaten in it once and ran well. It is not like Clan Des Obeaux or Silviniaco Conti being beaten more than once and clearly not being suited to the track.
I doubt he will win the Gold Cup but I will be surprised if he misses the race.
“Green’,
The jockey rode Protektorat similarly to when it won last year.”No he didn’t. Watch last year’s race again. The horse still wants to jump exuberantly but Skelton drops him a bit shorter to the first, then hooks him back firmly to dispute last place with A Plus Tard, giving him less sight of the fences. This year he set off in the lead and granted , soon let BMG ahead but with only one horse’s tail in front instead of 3 he was able to lock on to the fences and launch at them.
Perhaps not really jockey’s fault as Bristol and Frodon wanted to get on with it last year, whereas this year there was one less runner as potential cover anyway, and he might’ve had to pull the horse’s back teeth out to stay behind the eventual winner and Corach.
I wonder what they will do next? Even though the King George is the wrong way round, maybe just let him do what he wants to do and belt round in front and seee if he can keep going?
Assuming his wind is OK as you say- he really did fold quickly, unless that was Skelton looking after him when he wasn’t going to win.The ground was soft today, but not heavy. they were just 18 secs slower than standard time. The way both of them (BMG and Protektorat) finished their races, I’d say there is only one target in March. But connections won’t hear that….
Protektorat is best over the 2m4f at Cheltenham a trip that will also suit BMG.
But, with Allaho and Stage Star already too strong in the Ryanair market, connections will easily opt for the more prestigious race. I can’t imagine them swerving the GC with two nine year olds.
Not even one of the best trainers in ‘the game’ really knows if a horse has had too many hard races over last 12 months.
BMG might just not be at top of his game anymore.RP
It proved significant that on ITV today, 20 mins before the off, Chapman asked Venetia if RP’s real target is The Grand National…she replied “Today is the target”.I’m critical of the modern trend of not running horses regularly and saving them for C’Ham, but v few horses can be a Night Nurse or a Desert Orchid. Willie Mullins observed that 3 mile chasing is v hard on a horse; BMG didn’t jump with his usual fluency, obs Wetherby took more out of him than his trainer realised.
I just wonder as I stated in a previous post upthread, that the owner of BMG wanted to run here for what they thought was some easy prize money. Didnt look that BMG has given the full effort to me in a very slow finish as both horses looked to be all out.
Sorry Green, maybe “similarly” was the wrong word. Your words about Skelton “launched at like he was getting booted into the last in the Arkle” etc. just seemed so unfair to me. I saw no launch and no boot. With two confirmed front runners in last year’s race and none at all in this renewal… And judged by Racing Post Standard the time today 17 seconds slow compared to 3 seconds slow when Protektorat was successful in 2022. Also considering this was a grade 1 it was slow compared to the other races on today’s card. As you now say, “Bristol and Frodon wanted to get on with it last year”. Am pretty sure today they went slow in the early stages and in such circumstances horses can often be too free. Also probable his jockey had been told not to let Jacob dictate a slow pace. Because a lesser test of stamina was thought to suit the favourite.
Value Is EverythingHorse launched at the obstacles, I meant, not that the jockey was trying to make him jump like a 2 miler! Definitely like you say though he had less opportunity to cover him up off a slower pace and I think your comments about instructions:
“Also probable his jockey had been told not to let Jacob dictate a slow pace. Because a lesser test of stamina was thought to suit the favourite.” are likely spot on.The first two got racing quite a way out (and paid for it late on) as RP’s jockey said he did that to turn it into more of a stamina test as he felt BMG had more speed than him – Corach Rambler looked like he was going to be beaten a very long way as they turned for home but he was only 9L behind BMG at the finish.
Personally I am begining to think that Protektorat isn’t a true G1 chaser – his two wins from 6 attempts in G1s was beating The Shunter/Hitman 3L as a novice and this race last year when he beat the fully exposed Eldorado Allen, a past his best Frodon, a way past his best Bristol De Mai (who was retired after his very next race) and a pulled up A PLus Tard who’s last season was a complete write off.
His form tends to peter off somewhat after his first run which doesn’t bode too well for this season after today’s poor return to action – I could see him finishing somewhere between 4th to 6th in a Gold Cup but I think it would take several of the top horses to underperform in order for him to finish any higher.
According to the Racing Post he is also already on his 4th wind surgery and he is only 8.
“Now Jacob is galvanizing BMG, it’s a gladiatorial battle down towards the last”
The race was already lost as he (Machin) made that commentary.
It was noticeable that Jacob was the last to go for his stick but whether he was holding on as late as possible before doing so because he felt there wasn’t a lot left
it was kind of similar to how Cobden rode him at Wetherby although you could argue that that day it was because it was his first race of the season.I have questioned before whether he was a horse that doesn’t particularly find as much off the bridle as the way he travels through a race might suggest he would and maybe at this trip (nigh on 3m2f) it is rather more noticeable because he is coming to the end of his stamina reserves.
I think most people could see before today’s race that Protektorat was a substandard winner in 2022. But even so his performance today was nowhere near his best. Too free, jumping less well than usual and beaten a fair way out. Many of Skelton’s runners in the last two weeks have run poorly – as if there’s been a virus in the yard. Plus a poorer first time out strike rate which maybe something to do with that virus… And then the fact Protektorat had a wind op only in October. So with a virus in the yard and wind op at the same time doesn’t give much time to get fit, even though has run well fresh in previous seasons. Skelton did have a couple of wins today and some ran well at Ascot without winning both today and yesterday. However, the trainer’s horses are probably still in transition from being in bad to good form. Some (mainly those who’ve already had a run) are able to show their form. Some aren’t.
Too early to be writing him off, but certainly has questions to answer. His preference for left handed tracks and possibly flat courses too means both King George and Cheltenham (Trial as well as Gold Cup) are not ideal. Maybe Ireland?
Value Is EverythingWD winners!
Quite disappointing to see both Protektorat and Bravemansgame struggle here. Expected more from them. At least Corach Rambler ran decent compared to last time.
Hard to see Bravemansgame back on top at Kempton. Only a few years ago Cue Card won the Charlie Hall, Betfair Chase, King George, Anintree Bowl and was on course for the Gold Cup. I don’t think we will see such a season in the following years.
it was kind of similar to how Cobden rode him at Wetherby although you could argue that that day it was because it was his first race of the season.
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