November 20, 2023 at 15:31 #1671128Tizaaards CiderParticipant
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7/4 for BMG!
And Nicholls just this minute said on RTV he won’t run him on heavy ground!
This could end up becoming a walkover!!November 20, 2023 at 16:13 #1671138TheTinMan87Participant
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They are all scared of leaving their season behind in the Haydock mud whereas its the only target for Protektorat so it makes no odds really to him. Farcical that a G1 race like this with nobody obvious of being scared of entered is being limited in field size because the ground is always horrendous. If it carries on the race will end up getting downgraded probably.November 20, 2023 at 16:19 #1671139
Haydock chase course is currently Heavy (soft in places).
For me I think it is a big mistake running BMG here with his first main target being the King George – this race always ends up being a grueling affair and even if it does stay dry the best it will be is proper soft. I remember Nicholls saying running Clan des Obeaux here in 2020 took the edge off him for Kempton when he finished 3rd to Frodon.
Royale Pagaille would be in with a chance as Venetia’s horses are at 40% over the last 14 days and he himself is 3 from 4 at the course (all 3 wins on soft or heavy) with his sole defeat being in this race 2 yrs ago when runner up to A PLus Tard (in his Gold Cup year) on good to soft. Might have to take his fitness on trust but the same applies for Shishkin & ProtektoratNovember 20, 2023 at 16:34 #1671140KendicateParticipant
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I agree LD73- Royal pagaiile is the bet 8/1- cud end up a 2 or 3 runner race
Only concern would be it has several entries over the next few weeks but you would think they would come here as the ground and course suits.
Protektorat hardly the most reliable horse. Ground in the north west is a complete bog at the moment.November 20, 2023 at 16:43 #1671141
To be fair to Protektorat, the best time to get him seems to be on his first start of the season as over the last three seasons he has won first time out twice and was second the other time – also for the last two years his form seems to dip after his first run also.November 20, 2023 at 18:43 #1671203TheTinMan87Participant
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I think in fairness to the race planners, its not the same race is it? Ones a G1 over 3m and the other is a G2 over 2m 5f and they are opposite way round to each other. The problem is trainers don’t actually care about winning G1s unless they are the King George (and that pool isn’t huge) or at Cheltenham. Prize money problem or the lure of March? Didn’t they try and incentivise coming here then Kempton then Cheltenham, Cue Card might have gone close in Don Cassacks Gold Cup but for falling.November 20, 2023 at 20:59 #1671248FinalFurlong91Participant
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There’s a pretty big difference between 3m1 1/2f and 2m5f isn’t there
Very different racesNovember 20, 2023 at 21:11 #1671258Tizaaards CiderParticipant
- Total Posts 493
It’s worth remembering as well that there aren’t that many horses in training with a rating of 160+ AND liking for 3m 2f in properly heavy ground.
How many horses not running in it have ran to their best form under those conditions?November 20, 2023 at 22:27 #1671338greenasgrassParticipant
- Total Posts 6579
“I think Shishkin may go to Ascot, Henderson hoping BMG has a harder time at Haydock before the King George.”
Oh dear. I don’t think he’ll go to either. If Shishkin goes to Ascot Cobden will go hell for leather on a fit and revved up Pic to rip the guts out of Shishkin while Daryl looks after BMG up north. It’ll be the Cyrname/Altior thing all over again.November 20, 2023 at 22:47 #1671339Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 14713
I’m a regular backer of Royal Pagaille, and happy to do so again here.
Royal Pagaille 8’sNovember 21, 2023 at 00:24 #1671346Ex RubyLightParticipant
- Total Posts 3256
Corach Rambler trading at around the same price as Royal Pagaille is a bit unrealistic. In a small field, at a track like Haydock and on this going I thing RP should be no more than 5/1.
Plus Venetia’s obsession is not only the Cheltenham Festival, she is very shrewd at placing her horses in better races throughout the year.
I’m on at 8s…..November 21, 2023 at 01:05 #1671349
Have to say I would be surprised if Shishkin went to Ascot after all the talk from Hendo about him now being a 3m+ horse, it took him pretty much all of the 3m1f trip at Aintree to get to grips with the exposed Ahoy Senor.
Most of his wins have been on soft ground and he even has a win to his name on heavy (albeit over hurdles) so I would assume the ground shouldn’t really be too much of an issue, so Haydock would seem the most obvious starting place rather than a drop back to 2m5f especially considering both Pic D’Orhy and Dashel Drasher (a 3 miler with race fitness on his side) like to go from the front, I could potentially see him getting outpaced from a pretty early stage.
They might view the fact that of his 4 races last season it was only at Ascot in the Ascot Chase where he wasn’t ever outpaced at any stage of the race and that might be a point in favour of going back there (although he had already had a run prior to Ascot).November 21, 2023 at 05:03 #1671350Cork All StarParticipant
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I have taken the 8/1 for Royal Pagaille as well. Very surprised he is such a big price with conditions to suit and doubts about some of the others lining up.November 21, 2023 at 10:09 #1671356Mike007Participant
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I don’t know why they don’t have the race 2 weeks earlier. That way there is enough time to the King George without the trainer excuses. Ireland have a top 3 mile race that weekend at Down Royal so if they can get them ready so can the UK horses.November 21, 2023 at 10:33 #1671358runandskip84Participant
- Total Posts 184
I agree Mike 2 weeks earlier would be much better or perhaps scrap the race and upgrade The Charlie Hall?
Either way something needs to be done as the Betfair has turned in a yearly farce.November 21, 2023 at 11:30 #1671364Mike007Participant
November 21, 2023 at 16:18 #1671383
- Total Posts 6558
Interesting that there was zero mention of the Gold Cup in that piece: “We could go to the Ryanair or we could go to Aintree, but we won’t start thinking about that until after the King George”.
This year’s Ryanair will likely end up being a much hotter contest than the one he ran in last year with Allaho & Stage Star heading the betting – assumed with his win at Liverpool over almost 3m2f that the King George and Gold Cup were going to be Shishkin’s main targets this season.
Makes you wonder why enter him at Haydock in the first place if you felt that that trip on heavy ground (which it is more often than not that time of year at Haydock) against a potential Gold Cup rival wasn’t what he needed first time out
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