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I would be concerned about whether the first two would be able to back up at Kempton after today’s race.
Nicholls decision to come here baffled me beforehand and now one of the worse case scenarios has happend, (beaten after having a very hard race) so any freshness he would have had by heading straight to Kempton after the Charlie Hall (the original plan) has gone out the window.
Does this result mean it is more likely that we will see Allaho and Geri at Kempton now?
I guess BMG’s race came too soon after Wetherby considering the mistake he made at the last where I thought he might have even pulled a muscle or something. He didn’t enjoy himself at all today. Once Protektorat took over before they came into the straight for the first time, BMG looked a spent force.
Either the Gold Cup has left a mark… Or there’s a good chance Bravemansgame is best fresh nowadays (since the wind op).. Three weeks break from the Charlie Hall not enough. Just as the break from Cheltenham to Aintree (twice) and 5 weeks from Cheltenham to Punchestown. Best two performances came after 50+ and 80+ days. Trouble is now thetre’s not much more than a month to the KIng George. One thing is for sure – jockey made no difference whatsoever.
Value Is Everything“Does this result mean it is more likely that we will see Allaho and Geri at Kempton now?:
Geri won’t come unless there’s loads of rain at that track.
Allaho it depends if it’s too big a test too soon after being out for so long.“The way Protektorat jumped the fences in the home straight it was just a matter of time for him to run out of fuel. Maybe it’s horse, but it is also the jockey….”
The first few fences he launched at like he was getting booted into the last in the Arkle upsides the fav. No way can you win a three mile chase of soft like that. He stood off the 4th, hammered through it and that frightened or hurt him into jumping too high and carefully and you can’t win any sort of G1 chase like that. Maybe the horse was pulling into the fences but I would expect the jockey to be able to keep a lid on him and drop him in short to at least a few fences in the first mile to cool his boots a bit.
Thanks, Kris.
Looking back the the Charlie Hall and today’s Betfair Chase would you consider running BMG in the KG or rather wait until spring?
Alice on ITV said in the debrief that Skelton thinks that they may have had him too fresh for the race
I wouldn’t blame Nicholls for coming here. When a horse has fluffed his lines and got beat after a mistake at the last and believing it’s come out of the race well… And is going to be odds-on for a Grade 1… And is your best horse in the yard / don’t have a replacement… And could well be able to do the Betfair / King George double…It’s difficult not to go.
Value Is Everything“Looking back the the Charlie Hall and today’s Betfair Chase would you consider running BMG in the KG or rather wait until spring?”
I would scope for ulcers again, run in the KG, scope again, skip the Gold Cup (very hard to do if he wins the KG..but he isn’t going to win the GC) and go all out to target the Bowl with a fresh horse, then Punchestown if he hacks up in the Bowl and bounces out of it.
BMG seemed to travelling well but RP was pulling away at the end. Be interesting what Nicholls does next.
The more I know the less I understand.
Green’,
The jockey rode Protektorat similarly to when it won last year.
For me, the horse ran too free early… And it is far from certain whether his latest wind op has worked.Value Is EverythingEvery time BMG has gone further than 3m he has been beaten so assuming no issues in the fallout of today’s race, I think (even though his chance of winning has been compromised by today’s run) that the KG has to be his main target.
I really don’t think he is a strong enough stayer at the Gold Cup trip and I have a feeling that 2024’s race could potentially be a stronger renewal than last year.
Interesting to note that of the 7 horses that finshed last year’s Gold Cup, they have run again a combined 14 times with RP (who was 6th) being the first horse to actually win a race since.
I guess it is now over to GDC tomorrow to see whether the hard race leaving a mark theory has more supporting evidence to give us or not.
Nicholls just as well go to Kempton because there’s no real alternative and – if he is not successful there – will still have 80 odd days to recover before Cheltenham.
Value Is Everything
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